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I'm in a state of confusion. Not only am I baffled as to why Frankie Cocozza is still in the competition and bewildered that Sophie Habibis isn't, I'm also extremely undecided as to how to play the two best singers still in with a shout of winning.

Last week saw Rhythmix change their name, a member of The Risk quit, and Kelly Rowland temporarily replaced by Alexandra Burke on the judging panel, the only important news is that for the first time since this year's X Factor commenced I find myself admitting that absolutely anyone can win this, except Cocozza of course.

Earlier this week the leading three in the Winner market prior to Saturday night's live show - Janet Devlin (3.7), The Risk (5.5), and Misha Bryan (8.4) - all drifted in the betting, whilst the other acts (excluding Cocozza) all shortened, and in Marcus Collins' (7.4) and Craig Colton's (6.4) case, shortened dramatically.

That's thanks in large to Saturday's performances. Devlin's rendition of Every Breath You Take was good without being spectacular, but I agree with Gary Barlow's concerns that she is singing the same kind of dreary song each week. It's ok for me to say this, though it's a bit rich coming from Barlow when two of his Boys - Cocozza and Colton - have sang in exactly the same fashion every week thus far.

The Risk, with yet another tweak to their line-up, killed Michael Jackson all over again with an out-of-tune rendition of Thriller (why did they receive such positive comments?), whilst Bryan, despite a fantastic performance, is suffering, as I feared she would, from the bullying allegations she endured last week.

Bryan being in the bottom two on Sunday night was a complete injustice quite frankly. Along with Kitty Brucknell (36.0) she is easily one of the better, and more consistent, performers in the competition. If only the public would vote on what they see and hear on stage, and not on what the judges have to say or what is said in the media, then this betting lark would be far more straightforward.

But unfortunately that's not how it works and the public can vote how they see fit. And this is why I'm fearful of backing Bryan and Brucknell in any market as they appear to be generally un-liked. Both have been in the bottom two now, and because so I'm reluctantly leaving them go un-backed... for now.

And it's the problem of public perception and popularity that makes this year's competition wide open. Johnny Robinson's bandwagon, as I predicted it would, did roll on and he's now available to back at 22.0 to win (and at 3.5 in the Top Three market for those of you who took my advice to back him at 6.0 last week). As I've said on almost a weekly basis, he's vocally not good enough to win, but his popularity is immense and he's miles clear in the clap-o-meter ratings.

Colton and Collins are very steady performers but we don't know exactly how popular they are, whilst it's impossible to rule out girlband Little Mix (15.0) with any confidence also. It's an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve, believe me.

All that makes this week's Eighth Elimination market very intriguing. Cocozza is yet again the strong favourite to go at 2.1 and I believe this could be the week that his sleazy sexploits do catch up with him. But I'm also going to have a one point wager on Collins at 15.0 and place an order to lay him at 5.0. This means that if Collins performs poorly on Saturday and does hit our lay price of 5.0 then we'll make a two points profit (on this bet only) regardless of who gets eliminated. If he doesn't hit the lay price then we'll require him to be eliminated on Sunday to make a massive 14 points profit.

Recommended Bets
Back Frankie Cocozza @ 2.1 in Eighth Elimination market (2pts)
Back Marcus Collins @ 15.0 in Eighth Elimination market (1pt)
(place order to lay Collins at 5.0)

For more X Factor betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/

Rubin Kazan v Tottenham, KO: 17:00, live on ITV4

Two weeks ago I predicted a low-scoring game in the reverse of this fixture with a 1-0 Spurs victory being one of my Correct Score selections. Thankfully I was right, and that result means that Harry Redknapp can afford to lose this game knowing that four points against Shamrock Rovers (away) and PAOK (home) will be enough to see his team qualify for the knock-out stages of this competition.

But does that mean we ought to lump on Kazan to win this game? I'm inclined to believe it does with Redknapp himself admitting that he is reluctant to play his star names in Russia ahead of his club's Premier League game with Fulham at the weekend. And after undergoing minor heart surgery on Wednesday the Tottenham boss will also be sitting this game out. We wish him a full and speedy recovery.

Youngsters Danny Rose, Kyle Walker, Jake Livermore, Giovani dos Santos and Andros Townsend, plus the experience of Heurelho Gomes, Sandro, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Jermain Defoe have all travelled to Russia and are expected to form part of a much-changed starting XI.


Match Odds

Kazan showed more than enough at White Hart Lane to suggest that, on their own turf, they can cause what is likely to be a second-string Tottenham side plenty of problems. The Russian outfit have lost just once at their Central Stadium home in over three months, and that was to Champions League outfit Zenit St Petersburg. Since their defeat in North London they have won one and drawn one in the Russian Premier League, and with a win very much needed in this encounter we can be confident that boss Kurban Berdyev will field his strongest side possible.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

As was the case two weeks ago layers are very undecided in this market, making both the Under and Over 2.5 Goals options available to back at 2.0. However, unlike a fortnight ago I don't envisage this game being a low-scoring encounter purely because Kazan very rarely keep a clean sheet on home soil. In fact from their last 10 home games stretching back to the middle of June they've managed just two shut-outs, whilst despite the game at White Hart Lane finishing 1-0 it was hardly a dull spectacle that had few chances.


Correct Score

A few of Kazan's European games have ended 2-2 (20.0) this season and if Spurs do manage a draw then this is a scoreline that could pay dividends. But I fancy a home win and therefore my favoured wager in this market has to be the 3-1 option - available to back at 18.0.


Recommended Bets
Back Rubin Kazan @ 1.74 to beat Tottenham
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0
Back 3-1 @ 18.0 & 2-2 @ 20.0 Correct Scores

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Manchester United have lost just one Champions League home game in six-and-a-half years, so are understandably strong 1.11 favourites to beat Otelul Galati, who have started life in Europe's premier competition with three successive defeats.

There is consequently a temptation to paint this fixture as a replica of Chelsea's recent clash with Genk at Stamford Bridge, which finished 5-0 in their favour, however Red Devils routs in continental action are surprisingly rare.

Asian Handicap

Otelul Galati +2.5, which guarantees a payout so long as the hosts don't triumph by three or more goals, is likely to be available at around 1.92, and there is a fairly formidable case for taking this option.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side have won only three of their last 36 Champions League matches by such a hefty margin, one of those on their travels and the two at Old Trafford in the knockout rounds, while the visitors have twice lost by one goal and once by two so far.

Carling Cup encounters against lower-league teams aside, Manchester United haven't overcome anyone by more than two goals in nine outings since tearing apart Bolton 5-0 in early September, and they haven't been at their best in Europe to date.

The 2-0 victory in Romania last time out was their first in this season's edition after draws with Benfica and Basel and consequently they are currently closer to third-placed Basel than table-topping Benfica.

Both teams to score

Don't be fooled into linking the suspicion that Manchester United won't have it all their own way with a low-scoring game. Instead, on the evidence of their recent European adventures, both clubs stand a good chance of getting on the scoresheet at 2.72.

The Reds haven't kept a continental clean sheet at Old Trafford in over a year and shipped three when welcoming Basel.

Best Bet: Otelul Galati +2.5 (Asian Handicap) @ 1.92
Other Recommended Bet: Both teams to score @ 2.72

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The Betfair Contrarian has said some pretty outrageous things over the years but this one might top the lot. How can Manchester City, the best team in England right now, and fresh from shredding last season's Champions League runners-up, possibly exit Europe's premier competition at the group stage? Allow him to try to convince you to join him in laying the Premier League leaders to progress at 1.87... 



The outlook is fairly bleak

If you didn't know the team names and were simply told that Club A were a point clear of Club B, had held them away and were soon to host them, you would fancy Club A to qualify. Manchester City (Club B) are 1.87 to go through at the expense of Napoli (Club A) purely due to their reputation, a reputation that they haven't once lived up to in three games since they started dining at Europe's top table. Napoli must visit Bayern Munich on Wednesday admittedly, but their point at the Etihad Stadium means that they will control their destiny even if they lose. So long as they aren't beaten in the return fixture with Manchester City, they will have one foot in the last 16.

Manchester City won't win in Naples 


Bayern Munich were forced to settle for a point at the San Paolo, and they entered the intimidating venue on a run of 11 victories in 12 during which they hadn't conceded a single goal. In fact, no side has defeated Napoli in ten European home matches since their return to continental competition in 2008, and they have kept seven straight clean sheets. They have shown already this season an aptitude for the big occasions, as in addition to their strong showings against Manchester City and Bayern Munich, they have overcome AC Milan, Inter and Udinese in Serie A. 



Mancini's European record is uninspiring... 


Roberto Mancini will prove himself to be one of the best coaches of his era over the next decade or so, of that the Contrarian has no doubt. However, he has yet to crack Europe, and on the evidence of this campaign so far, is still some way from doing so. In four years in charge of Inter, Mancini won Serie A three times - twice on the pitch - the Coppa Italia twice and the Super Cup twice at a club who had forgotten how success tasted. But he was axed despite all that, mainly due to his failure to deliver the trophy that President Moratti desired most. At the peak of their powers between 2006 and 2008, they twice made premature exits.

...and hasn't really improved at Manchester City 


Manchester City were Europa League favourites last term and took their Thursday night duty seriously, but failed to impress, finishing level with a Lech Poznan side struggling in Poland in the group stage and bowing out to Dinamo Kiev in the round-of-16, who in turn were dumped out a round later. Most worryingly, they are now winless in five on their European travels, a huge problem given that they will likely need to triumph in at least one of their remaining two away games in order to prolong their adventure. 



Champions League debutants rarely fare well 


Manchester City are the ninth English club to qualify for the Champions League (tenth if you include Everton being knocked out in the qualifying stages) since it adopted its current group-to-knockout format in 1994-95. Though Tottenham reached the quarter-finals last season, their successful debut was the exception rather than the norm. Just four of the nine other Premier League participants made it to the knockout stages at the first attempt, with the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal among the initial flops.

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Sophie Habibis, backed at a low of just 6.0 to win the competition, became the seventh act to leave this year's X Factor competition.

Habibis was available to back at 10.0 in the Seventh Elimination market at the start of the week but a poor rendition of Bang Bang on Saturday night saw the London barmaid shorten to a low of just 2.1 prior to the results show commencing. Only Frankie Cocozza was shorter, the teenage rebel being matched at 2.0.

And in a huge surprise, it was Misha Bryan who joined Habibis in the bottom two this week. Bryan was available to back at a massive 200.0 to be eliminated after another solid performance on Saturday night, though she was much shorter in the Bottom Two market, being matched at a high of 28.0. All four judges, including the ill Kelly Rowland speaking from her Los Angeles home, decided to save Bryan and send Habibis home.

Despite not giving her best performance of the series Janet Devlin remains the 4.0 favourite in the Winner market, though layers are becoming massively undecided as to the destination of this year's crown. No fewer than five acts are now available to back at single figure odds with The Risk (5.4), Craig Colton (6.2), Marcus Collins (8.0), and Bryan (8.4) joining Devlin at below the 10.0 mark.

Lively outsiders Johnny Robinson (18.0), Rhythmix (16.0), and Kitty Brucknell (32.0) have also come in for support in recent days, though Cocozza remains a massive outsider and is available to back at 100.0.

*Please note, for the avoidance of doubt, any act changing their name during the series will continue to trade under their original name (Rhythmix have changed their name to Little Mix).

For more X Factor betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/

Can the Scottish firebrand deny her elimination rivals Audley Harrison and indestructible Nancy? No, say Alan Dudman in his weekly look at the Strictly Come Dancing odds...

There is a new kid in town, as the Eagles wistfully once crooned. And talking of musical heavyweights - McFly drummer Harry Judd is our new Strictly favourite at 3.15. I was hoping for someone (or in the case of Nancy, something) to come out of the shadows and take on Jason. We had it last weekend, and it's very much game on.

The Juddmeister showed his class in the ballroom once again, picking up an impressive 35 point waltz. His timing is being honed to almost perfect, and Len was close to giving a top mark 10. The choreography went a bit awry with the whispering, a tactic which divided the judges and prompted an angry response from professional dancer James Jordan. Basically, it all kicked off.

However, he is a serious player. And unlike dear old Ringo Starr, a drummer with great rhythm.

Meanwhile Chelsee Healeywas a big mover with her quickstep. A smashing dance that gained top marks of the week with a 36. Her chemistry with partner Pasha is electric, and she is another contender to take on the market leaders.

My gut instinct about Jason Donovan's price after two weeks has proved correct. Strictly is notorious for throwing up dramatic improvers, and Donovan has drifted out to 3.5. His paso doble was slightly unsure, and lacked a bit of oomph. He gleaned only 27 points, and once again quoted: "It's been a tough week". His fifth straight usage of that catchy phrase.

And what of Lulu? Her samba reminded me of a night out in a London nightspot called 'Entice'. It was an interesting evening, and I found myself fascinated by the 66-year-old granny dancing to Prodigy's Firestarter. A feat never equalled nor ever repeated, despite her efforts to 'Dirty Cash' at around 2am. Lulu is full of beans and has great energy, but she might find herself in a bit of trouble this weekend - much like I could have been during that evening on the dancefloors of the capital.

The Saturday show is the dreaded Halloween week, my least favourite. Although luckily for Nancy Dell'Olio, she can arrive ready to go. The gorgeous Karen Hardy warned on Tuesday's SCDITT the importance of not falling into the costume trap and get the content right.

I thought Robbie Savagewas a goer in the top score market last weekend, although his jive was not bad, I was a bit disappointed he missed a couple of steps. However, the great thing with Savage is that he goes for it, and gives it his all. If Valance had his zip, she would be hitting 35s. The former footballer has the paso doble for the live show, and this could suit his style. It's the masculine bullfighter
dance which needs a bit of machismo. He again is interesting at around 13.0 to be this week's top scorer.

And what about the cat with nine lives? Much to my delight, Nancy survived yet again, despite being backed at around evens for two consecutive weeks. She is 2.22 for the chop again, but as I have said before, she is the one selling the papers and the one who entertains the most. Dell'Olio was filmed down on the farm last week, wearing leather trousers and pink boots - no one else can do that. Apart from Russell Grant, maybe.

She is a more wild version of Ann Widdecombe and John Sargeant, and slightly more glamorous. But can we last one more week by laying her? If so, then Audley 3.2 and Lulu 5.8 are the contenders to go. And how pleased I am to see the excellent 'Bottom Two' markets up and running. Nancy is nailed on once again for the danger zone, but the public seem to vote for her. She has the rumba this Saturday, a dance famed for its sexy moves. Can she do it? Oh yes she can.


Recommended Bets

Back Lulu for elimination @ 5.5
Back Nancy/Lulu bottom two @ 2.0
Back 36 and over in highest score @ 1.8
Back Robbie Savage and Harry Judd for top score @ 13.0 and 3.5
Back perfect 10 - yes @ 1.9


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Lee Dixon will stop tipping Robin van Persie to score when he stops scoring. Arsenal will need the Dutchman to carry on his superb form to get something from this match but the way he's going, that's not too big an ask.

Andre Villas-Boas will have been very disappointed with last Sunday's defeat to QPR. While all the talk has been surrounding the two Manchesters, his Chelsea side were quietly creeping up on the rails and looking ready to pounce.

There's a lot to like about his options upfront and the midfield looks solid but defensively there are a few concerns. John Terry has been a stalwart at the heart of their defence for years but since the departure of Ricardo Carvalho they've tried a few options, and though the likes of Branislav Ivanovic and David Luiz are both fine players in their own way, Chelsea's defence hasn't been as solid as that of yesteryear. You only have to look at how few clean sheets they've kept this year.

As for Arsenal, they're improving after that horror start to the season and look a better side, playing with more confidence. They're up to seventh and it's a safe bet they'll be higher than that come May.


Match Odds

A few weeks ago this would have looked like a home banker. But as we've seen already, Arsenal have been improving and have won four on the bounce in all competitions.

We shouldn't underestimate the loss of Didier Drogba to Chelsea. He may not be in the same sort of form as he was a couple of years ago but his record against Arsenal is exceptional. As Opta tell us, he has scored 13 goals in 14 appearances against the north Londoners in all competitions. The Gunners' record against Chelsea with him playing is W1 D3 L10, but in his absence Arsenal have won two, drawn one and lost none. He obviously loves playing against Arsene Wenger's men and his absence improves the visitors' chances of getting something out of the game. Fernando Torres will return from suspension but we'll have to wait and see just how sharp he is.

This may end up being a game of two strikers because Arsenal will be fielding one of the most-in form goalscorers in the league. But more on Robin van Persie later.

With Chelsea a bit shell-shocked from that QPR defeat, the ongoing John Terry racism investigation and the absence of Drogba, Chelsea are worth taking on at odds-on.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Three clean sheets from nine league matches suggests Arsenal's long-standing defensive problems are far from being fixed. We've already looked at Chelsea's own problems at the back. I don't think either side will run up a big win, nor do I expect it to finish 3-3, but we should get at least three goals.


To Score

There's one question on many an Arsenal fan's mind: what would happen if Robin van Persie were out with a lengthy injury? It's a particularly pertinent question because his injury record suggests he rarely goes through a season without enduring at least one spell of being sidelined for two or three weeks. The answer is that Arsene Wenger will have to cross that bridge when he comes to it. In the meanwhile we have to carry on backing him to score. Opta tell us he's scored 25 goals in 26 Premier League appearances in 2011 and 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League away games. It's a must-bet.

Daniel Sturridge has been pretty impressive himself. He's got four league goals from just five appearances and scored the winner at Everton in the Carling Cup in midweek. He's one of those players who always looks like scoring, even when he's not actually playing that well. That's a priceless asset to have as a striker and he's also worth backing to get a goal on Saturday.


Recommended Bets

2 pts Lay Chelsea @ 1.68
2 pts Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.76
3 pts Back Robin van Persie to score @ 3.0
1 pt Back Daniel Sturridge to score @ 2.3

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As Manchester City's performances constantly improve, so their odds to win football matches contract. There are still value bets to be had on them, you just need to know where to look, says Andrew Atherley.

Punters will have to work much harder to find value about Manchester City after the headline-grabbing 6-1 demolition derby, but fortunately Roberto Mancini's team have built several strong form lines that still make them a good bet in the right circumstances.

And those circumstances can even include apparent mismatches such as Saturday's home game against struggling Wolves.

No one can be in any doubt now that City are the real deal as title contenders and that means their match odds are going to shrink accordingly. On Saturday the early betting has them at 1.19 to beat Wolves, which puts City in the same bracket as Manchester United and Chelsea when it comes to home matches against the lesser teams of the Premier League.

City are fully deserving of that status now, not just because of last Sunday's thrashing of United, nor simply because of their flying start to the season, but because of their strong home form in the whole of this calendar year.

Since the start of 2011, City have taken 37 points out of a possible 39 at home - their one failure being a 1-1 against Fulham in February. That is a major turnaround in their home form, as the previous 13 Premier League games before 2011 brought six wins, three draws and four defeats (21 points out of 39).

Given City's overall improvement this year, including the triumphant FA Cup run and their excellent start to this season, it is safe to assume that the new-found home form is the most accurate representation of their ability.

With such a high win rate, which if you go back to the start of December is actually 14 wins out of the last 16 at home (88%), City now offer more options for backers beyond the straight win.

The two strongest trends associated with their home wins in 2011 are the win-win on the half-time/full-time and the win to nil, both of which have come up nine times in 13 games. That's a rate of 69%, equating to odds of 1.44.

Those odds can be bettered in both cases on Saturday's match, with the win-win priced at 1.62 and the win to nil at 1.5. With the win to nil so strong and City having kept a clean sheet in 13 of their last 18 home games (going back almost exactly 12 months, at a rate of 72%) it is notable that a City clean sheet is 1.84 to back on Saturday.

Another option is the Asian handicap, with City 1.9 off -2.0 for Saturday's match. Of their 12 home wins in 2011, seven have been by two or more goals and six by three or more. At Saturday's odds, that means City would have returned a small overall loss in 2011.

But it has to be taken into account that City appear to have taken another step forward this season, with four wins out of four at home (all by two or more goals). And in 2011, at home to teams in the bottom half of the table, they are in profit off 2.0 on the Asian handicap.

The best value on the trends, though, appears to be the City win-win and a City clean sheet.


Pick of the stats

Everton v Manchester United

Wayne Rooney has scored in just three of his 15 games on Merseyside since leaving Everton


Wigan v Fulham

Fulham are unbeaten in their last nine against Wigan - six have been draws
Stoke v Newcastle

Newcastle have lost only one out of 12 against teams outside the big six since a 4-0 defeat at Stoke on March 19


Recommendations

Manchester City clean sheet v Wolves at 1.84

Lay Wayne Rooney to score v Everton at 2.2 (when the market goes up on Betfair)




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Liverpool and Chelsea are two of the most successful clubs in Carling Cup history, but Michael Lintorn isn't convinced that either will be in the quarter-final draw this year.


Stoke v Liverpool (19:45)

Tony Pulis' side have tasted defeat just once in 21 games in 2011, and that was when they had little to play for at home to Wigan on the final day of last season.

Factor into the equation their cup prowess - Manchester City are the only team in 18 matches over the last 19 months to have seen them off in 90 minutes, and they have won six of their first seven in the Europa League - and Liverpool's 2.22 favourite status appears rather bewildering.

The Reds have been to the Britannia Stadium four times since Stoke's promotion without success, heading home empty-handed on the last two occasions.

Best Bet: Lay Liverpool @ 2.24


Blackburn v Newcastle (20:00)

Alan Pardew set his overachieving team the target of trying to lift the Carling Cup after they saw off Nottingham Forest in the last round, and a trip to struggling Blackburn gives them every chance of keeping that dream alive.

The Magpies conquered Rovers at St James' Park last month to end a seven-match winless run against them, and Steve Kean's men have been particularly poor at Ewood Park, losing four of their five against Premier League opposition.

Newcastle are slight favourites at 2.64 but required extra time against Scunthorpe and Forest, so consider the safer option of backing them to qualify.

Best Bet: Back Newcastle to qualify @ 1.87


Everton v Chelsea (20:00)

Everton are having an unusually logical season so far, losing to the big guns that they usually upset and - a blip against QPR aside - winning when expected against the likes of Blackburn and Wigan.

That could change when they welcome Chelsea in the Carling Cup though, as they are unbeaten in four against the Blues at Goodison Park, while their visitors required penalties to see off Fulham in the last round, admittedly after playing with ten men.

The capital club have made shock early exits in each of the last three years to Burnley, Blackburn and Newcastle, and have previous when it comes to cup losses to Everton, being knocked out of the FA Cup by them last term.

Best Bet: Back Everton @ 3.2


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There's action all over the world but where has the Punter put his cash? Read his thoughts on this week's three events here...

The Race to Dubai returns to Valderrama this week for the second staging of the Andalucía Masters. Although this week's event is new to the schedule, Valderrama has been a popular staging post on the European Tour for many a year as it was the venue for the old season closer, the Volvo Masters, so there's plenty of course form to peruse.

It's a short, tree-lined track and accuracy is most definitely the key. Course form repeats and as a rule, it's the sort of place that the players need to get to know. Very few debutants fair well, although Jeev Milkha Singh won the Volvo Masters at his first attempt back in 2006.

Last year's inaugural winner of this title, Graeme McDowell, had plenty of Valderrama form in the book, arrived in good nick and was very well-fancied before the off. He was my idea of a typical winner given it's such a demanding venue but very often the winner of the old Volvo Masters would go off at big odds. Soren Kjeldsen, Paul McGinley and the aforementioned Jeev Milkha were all surprise recent winners. I still think it's a place where the cream really should rise to the top though and my first two picks certainly reflect that.

I'm no Sergio Garcia fan by any means but he couldn't have been any more impressive last week and he has some fantastic form around here too. He really should have won the Volvo Masters and was runner-up three times. In ten starts at Valderrama (including two American Express Championships) he's finished outside the top-ten just once and he even managed to finish in the top-ten here last year, the week after missing the cut at his home track. It's very difficult to envisage him not contending and he looked very much over-priced at 9.2 yesterday.

I've given up on the weather forecasts; they all seem to contradict each other with regards to the wind but Thursday certainly looks wet. I may hang on to all of my Sergio wager or I may lay the stake back and give myself a small free bet, or given he has an afternoon tee time on day one, I may just wait and see how my other main pick, Martin Kaymer, who tees off in the morning, fares first.

I don't think I have ever backed the first two in the market at an event before but that's precisely what I've done here. This time last year, in scintillating form and looking for his fourth straight win, Kaymer was trading at half his current price and although I backed him, I did so somewhat reluctantly. My instinct told me he was going to the well once too often but this time around, my intuition tells me he's ready to win again.

Kaymer has repeatedly said that Valderrama is his favourite course and his form figures back that up. In just three starts here he's finished sixth, second and last year's disappointing 21st. He contended well at the Portugal Masters two weeks ago and was runner-up at the recent European Masters and I couldn't leave him out.

That was supposed to be it but Paul Krishnamurty makes such a compelling case for David Horsey that I've followed him in. He is indeed correct, even though this is Horsey's first look at Valderrama, he's definitely too big at 100.0.

Of the remainder, I wouldn't want to put anyone off the defending champ, McDowell, and I really liked Thomas Bjorn but wanted a bigger price. Soren Kjeldsen has incredible form figures at Valderrama, having finished second, first and second again in his last three appearances and he's a big price at 60.0 but he's been woefully out of form this term so he's left out too.

Justin Rose won here in 2007 but he also had fine form figures at last week's venue in the States where he missed the cut. He's been well backed again but he looks short enough to me after last week's woeful effort. And finally, a regular play of mine, Alvaro Quiros, lives just up the road from Valderrama but this is simply not his type of venue and even at a huge price he's readily overlooked.

Selections:

Sergio Garcia @ 9.2
Martin Kaymer @ 14.5
David Horsey @ 100.0


Also in just its second year is the Asian and PGA Tour collaboration - the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic from the MINES resort in Malaysia. Ben Crane took the inaugural birdie-fest last year and he's the favourite this time around but he's not for me. Ben was last seen beating Webb Simpson in a play-off for the McGladrey Classic a fortnight ago but since then his wife's given birth to their third child, a girl, and I just wonder if he really wants to be on the other side of the world right now.

Given that we have so little to go on, and given this will be played out when I'll be tucked up in bed (and don't get caught out by the early start) I've been ultra cautious. I've swerved all the Asian players as they just didn't figure last year and I can't say I was grabbed by any of the American contingency either.

I quite liked Colombian Camilo Villegas but not at such a short price and in the end I've just played one from the start and that's the duel major winner Angel Cabrera.

The Argentine has plied his trade all around the globe and he's won in all sorts of far-flung places. He's won in the heat and humidity of Singapore and he's also played the MINES before. With rounds of 69 69 68 67, he partnered Eduardo Romero, who fired 72 68 70 72, when Argentina finished fourth here in the 1999 World Cup. He comes here fresh off his best performance of the year in the States - sixth at the McGladrey Classic and he might just go well at a fair price.

Selection:

Angel Cabrera @ 42.0


The best field of the week lines up at the inaugural Shanghai Masters - an event I didn't know existed until yesterday! It isn't part of any tour schedule and the Asian Tour head has called it a "vanity" exhibition tournament.

It's a tough one, I understand that china is a huge growth area for the game but I find it a little sad that Europe's elite are chasing the $2 million first prize instead of playing in Spain. Not that I blame them.

Anyway, I've not really looked at this at all yet but if you fancy a bet, here's the market. I may get involved in-running, I may not. If I do, I'll detail it in the In-Play Blog, which I'll probably kick off on Friday.


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