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The Betfair Contrarian has said some pretty outrageous things over the years but this one might top the lot. How can Manchester City, the best team in England right now, and fresh from shredding last season's Champions League runners-up, possibly exit Europe's premier competition at the group stage? Allow him to try to convince you to join him in laying the Premier League leaders to progress at 1.87... 



The outlook is fairly bleak

If you didn't know the team names and were simply told that Club A were a point clear of Club B, had held them away and were soon to host them, you would fancy Club A to qualify. Manchester City (Club B) are 1.87 to go through at the expense of Napoli (Club A) purely due to their reputation, a reputation that they haven't once lived up to in three games since they started dining at Europe's top table. Napoli must visit Bayern Munich on Wednesday admittedly, but their point at the Etihad Stadium means that they will control their destiny even if they lose. So long as they aren't beaten in the return fixture with Manchester City, they will have one foot in the last 16.

Manchester City won't win in Naples 


Bayern Munich were forced to settle for a point at the San Paolo, and they entered the intimidating venue on a run of 11 victories in 12 during which they hadn't conceded a single goal. In fact, no side has defeated Napoli in ten European home matches since their return to continental competition in 2008, and they have kept seven straight clean sheets. They have shown already this season an aptitude for the big occasions, as in addition to their strong showings against Manchester City and Bayern Munich, they have overcome AC Milan, Inter and Udinese in Serie A. 



Mancini's European record is uninspiring... 


Roberto Mancini will prove himself to be one of the best coaches of his era over the next decade or so, of that the Contrarian has no doubt. However, he has yet to crack Europe, and on the evidence of this campaign so far, is still some way from doing so. In four years in charge of Inter, Mancini won Serie A three times - twice on the pitch - the Coppa Italia twice and the Super Cup twice at a club who had forgotten how success tasted. But he was axed despite all that, mainly due to his failure to deliver the trophy that President Moratti desired most. At the peak of their powers between 2006 and 2008, they twice made premature exits.

...and hasn't really improved at Manchester City 


Manchester City were Europa League favourites last term and took their Thursday night duty seriously, but failed to impress, finishing level with a Lech Poznan side struggling in Poland in the group stage and bowing out to Dinamo Kiev in the round-of-16, who in turn were dumped out a round later. Most worryingly, they are now winless in five on their European travels, a huge problem given that they will likely need to triumph in at least one of their remaining two away games in order to prolong their adventure. 



Champions League debutants rarely fare well 


Manchester City are the ninth English club to qualify for the Champions League (tenth if you include Everton being knocked out in the qualifying stages) since it adopted its current group-to-knockout format in 1994-95. Though Tottenham reached the quarter-finals last season, their successful debut was the exception rather than the norm. Just four of the nine other Premier League participants made it to the knockout stages at the first attempt, with the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal among the initial flops.

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