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Napoli

Napoli went 13 years without European football before returning in 2008, since when they are unbeaten in ten games at San Paolo. This season they have beaten Villarreal 2-0 and drawn 1-1 with Group B's standout team, Bayern Munich.

Walter Mazzarri's team have not been scintillating in Serie A, but they were a match for City in the reverse fixture, when Edinson Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Marek Hamsik all caught the eye of their mega-rich opposition.

Manchester City

Roberto Mancini's charges won a seventh consecutive Premier League game at the weekend. The boss rested some of his international stars against Newcastle United and Napoli should brace themselves to face David Silva from kickoff.

Mancini might know a little of what to expect from the famously fervent fans at San Paolo, but many of his players will not have seen much to compare with them.

Match Odds

Napoli's excellent European home record makes City's 2.06 price look short. The visitors might be storming the Premier League, but their performance in losing 2-0 to Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena highlighted their lack of experience as a team in this competition. Even if they learnt a little when beating a weak Villarreal team 3-0 on their last away day, that win price is hard to justify.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

All but one of City's 12 Premier League games this season have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Ten of them have even passed Over 3.5 Goals. However, they have scored only six times in four Champions League matches so far and their hosts are likely to wait for them on the counterattack.

Napoli's last seven European games at San Paolo have stayed Under 2.5 Goals. The market can't split Over/Under 2.5 Goals and this column is inclined to wait to see the first few minutes of the game before deciding which way to go.

Recommended Bet: Lay Manchester City @ 2.1

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Craig Colton last night became the 11th act to leave this year's X Factor competition. The 22-year-old former biscuit factory worker was matched at a high of 7.2 in the 11th Elimination market, but became the favourite to go at around 2.8 after a poor performance on Saturday night.

Colton's elimination wasn't straightforward however. Amelia Lily - voted back into the competition just last week - found herself in the bottom two after the public vote, and after a tense sing-off the four judges couldn't decide who should leave. That meant the outcome went to deadlock for the first time this year, and unfortunately for Colton it was he who finished rock bottom of this week's public vote.

Marcus Collins remains the favourite to win this year's competition, the 23-year-old scouser is now available to back at 2.96, the shortest price he has been since the series began.

Girl band Little Mix (formerly Rhythmix) are this week's big movers, the quartet now trade at just 3.8 after being available at 14.0 just two weeks ago. Their support comes on the back of some excellent recent performances, the best being their rendition of En Vogue's Don't Let Go on Saturday night. Janet Devlin comes next in the Winner market at 5.4, ahead of Lily (8.0) and Misha Bryan (15.0).

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It would be extremely hard to match the drama, tension and theatre of last night's darts where two of the four games went to deciding legs and the other two matches produced an unbelievably high number of 180s.

Tonight's matches all have the potential to be as exciting, however, although I - and the Betfair markets - believe that there are four clear-cut winners in Paul Nicholson, Phil Taylor, Mark Webster and Adrian Lewis, so get them into a four-fold, paying at around 2.9 on Betfair Multiples. Otherwise back them individually as and when their matches start with a proportion of the winnings from the previous one to suit your own betting bank and risk strategy.

For a little extra value on the Taylor/Newton game, dutch The Power from 10-2 to 10-6 when liquidity permits as the percentage profit to be made doing this (I'd look for anything between 1.5 and 1.6) will easily outweigh the 1.14 about him simply to win the match. Dutching him this way also allows you to tinker with laying chunks off in-running, rather than taking him on the handicap which doesn't afford as much flexibility.

The four aforementioned favourites are priced up that way for good reason, with the quartet all posting superior three dart averages against their respective opponents over the course of the tournament so far. Similarly, all four have outscored their opponents in terms of 180s.

The only slight doubt of the favourites is perhaps Webster, purely and simply because Martin Phillips has matched him in terms of finishing percentages, but Phillips will have to increase his three dart average tonight to have any chance of causing an upset.

Furthermore, I believe all tonight's favourites are potential winners of the trophy, which is something I couldn't say with conviction about last night's. Even Anderson, who was so far in the zone he couldn't miss, has peaked too early and will have a job on his hands recreating that sort of form three more times.

Recommended Bets
Back Nicholson, Taylor, Webster and Lewis
Dutch Taylor 10-2 to 10-6

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Out with the old and in with the new. Or out with the old and in with the old as my re-worked phrase goes. It's all change in I'm A Celebrity following the sad exit of ancient 'comedian' Freddie Starr, but new blood of Sinitta and Pat Sharp in a surprise double inclusion has made it a rather fun week in the jungle.

The official website of IACGMOOH described Starr as a terrific contestant who gave us one of the stand-out moments in the show's history. I would temper that enthusiasm slightly, but he gave young pup Mark Wright a hammering in the 'greasy spoon' trial. And to think, all those headlines regarding rodents will be left to rot. He looked far too queasy to remain in camp, which is a shame as he had already riled Stefanie.

Farewell Freddie, the man who ate the pig anus and the camel toe. But not the hamster.

Essex man Wright is the new favourite, and trades at 3.15 to win it outright, and 1.85 in the top male market. On both occasions usurping Anthony Cotton - who has drifted to about 6.0 for jungle glory. The TOWIE boy has had some fairly favourable editing, unsurprising considering he has an ITV programme. He's already been nominated for two bushtucker trials, declared his love for old flame Lauren, worn a mankini and taken on the role as team leader. That's why he is 3.15.

Dougie from McFly meanwhile said nothing for a whole two days.

Cotton has been a complete diva, but as my ante-post pick I am still sitting fairly comfortably. Despite a spat with Fatima Whitbread over the cooking (and no one messes with Fatima), he's been fun, entertaining and fairly warming. Whitbread is an interesting betting proposition at the moment, and she's been cut to 3.0 for the top female. The javelin ace cried tears for Freddie, then started a ruck with Cotton over food duties. She might have a good run, and will perform well in the trials having already succeeded in the 'rat run'.

Jessica-Jane Clement took all of about two hours to get the bikini out, and to make doubly sure, the bikini came out once again for the celebrity chest task. I keep studying those two bits of footage for betting purposes just to make sure I make no mistake. JJC is trading at 15.0 to win.

Talking of celebrity chests, tabloid rumours on Friday morning have suggested lingerie model Emily Scott could enter the camp anytime soon. There's no official line on this, but the show has no love interest on the horizon due to Jessica-Jane's engagement
days after the line-up was announced. Watch this space (for Emily, not engagement plans).

The new arrivals on Tuesday have given the show a distinctly 80s feel. Step forward cheesy DJ (and pop star) Pat Sharp, along with cheesy pop star Sinitta. Both had to slum it this week in the cockroach cave in order to win the luxury items, and this
was achieved, with no help from Sinitta whatsoever. She seems a complete nervous wreck who was scared of the claxon. Not surprisingly she's been nominated for the next bushtucker trial. If it moves, Sinitta runs.

Her entrance was also particularly memorable: "Hello, I'm Sinitta".

But this Sharp character is a different ball game all together. Trading at 16.0, he could present a decent opportunity to achieve a green book by next week. He clearly wants to get back on telly, and he is relishing anything that is thrown his way. His cheeky little one-liners are slightly annoying, but he looks as though he means business.

Pat's entrance also prompted a marvellous exchange with Crissy Rock, who said: "He's nice, who is he?" Talk about he pot calling the kettle black. Has she never seen the legendary Pat Sharp's Funhouse? We sure as hell have never seen Benidorm.

Recommended Bets
Back-to-lay Pat Sharp in winner market @ 16.00
Back-to-lay Fatima @ 15.00

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Coventry v West Ham

They may be second, but West Ham are still proving a little bit hard to predict. They managed to sandwich a goalless draw at home to struggling Bristol City between a couple of good wins over Leicester and Hull, and for a team with clear outright promotion aspirations, they still haven't managed three victories in a row. However, they are proving very handy away from Upton Park. Five wins out of eight and only four goals conceded: their 2-0 win at Hull showing a clear ability to absorb pressure and then take their chances. They have played four away games so far against bottom-half teams, taking 10 points and scoring nine times while conceding just once.

The Hammers obviously know how to put away the poorer teams, and that makes them a tempting proposition against Coventry, who have not been any higher than 18th so far this season. They have lost three of their last four, including both their last two at the Ricoh Arena.

Back West Ham @ 1.82


Watford v Portsmouth

Despite seeing off Nottingham Forest (and former boss Steve Cotterill) last time out, that was at home: and Portsmouth are a very different team on the road. Their eight away games so far have delivered just two draws and six defeats, and they have failed to score in five of those matches. Pompey had a real problem when visiting struggling sides last season: they lost eight of the 11 games when away to bottom-half sides. Watford were beaten at Middlesbrough before the international break but had preceded that with back-to-back home wins, making it three wins in their last four at Vicarage Road.

Back Watford @ 2.42


Reading v Cardiff

There's still a long way to go this season, but Reading look like they will need another excellent run in the second half of the campaign if they are to be involved in the play-offs again. The Royals were 14th in mid-December last term but a burst of nine wins in 10 games from February to April helped carry them to fifth in May. They have struggled for consistency this season: just one win in their last five, but also only a single defeat. Draws have been the main outcome for Brian McDermott's side, with six in their opening 16 games and four in eight at home. Indeed they have hosted three top-10 sides at the Madejski and drawn the lot: throw in a stalemate at Palace, and all four of their games against top-10 sides have ended all square.

Cardiff have also drawn six league games so far, and four of them have been in away fixtures. They have won only one of their last seven on the road, and may well be happy with a point here.

Back The Draw @ 3.4

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Suddenly there are only 16 players left in the Grand Slam of Darts, with high-profile contender King and Dutch trio Dekker, van der Voort and Stompe among last night's casualties.

Tonight sees the first part of the knockout stage take place and it's a high-quality field that is tough to split. Dean Winstanley and Mark Walsh face each other in the first match of the night at around 7:15 and Winstanley is justifiably the favourite here @ 1.78. His first round stats of played three, won three, leg difference nine are more impressive than Walsh's played three, won two, leg difference two. Furthermore, in Hankey, White and van Barneveld, Winstanley faced a tougher trio of opponents.

For fans of Dutching, look no further than the Gary Anderson-James Wade game as there's nothing more than the width of a cigarette paper separating this pair. A Dutch of 10-9 and 10-8 both ways should hand you a better than even money dividend when liquidity rises during the day. A little lay of Anderson, who is the slight favourite @ 1.8 should offer a trade at some point as this game will have more twists and turns than my Scalextric set. Trade out in-running for some risk-free action.

Have a peek at the Most 180s market in the Ted Hankey-Michael van Gerwen game. While The Count has blown hot and cold over the last few days, he's still more reliable on the trebles than he is on the doubles and should be available to back at around 1.8.

And finally, the Terry Jenkins-Wayne Jones clash sees a rejuvenated Bull playing the local hero. I'd personally price them up a little closer than their current odds of 1.67 and 2.44 suggest, but the market that interests me here is the 'Highest Checkout'. Get on Jenkins @ 1.5 or better as he's took some spectacular numbers out in his last couple of matches.

Recommended Bets
Back Winstanley @ 1.78
Dutch Anderson/Wade 10-9, 10-8 both ways
Back Hankey on the Most 180s market
Back Jenkins on the Highest Checkout market

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Yorkshire St Leger 21:45 Doncaster

T1 Droopys Arshavin
Veteran campaigner for whom this is likely to be his swansong. Has won 11/19 over six bends this year at Belle Vue. Only unbeaten finalist and has been in the first two in nine of his last ten starts. Runner-up to Lonely Boy in Great North Run at Newcastle, but has run this track better than his rival and can reverse form.

T2 Native Spree
Strong running litter-brother of ante-post fancy Fleeting Image (eliminated in semi-finals). Got up to force a dead-heat with Lonely Boy in the semis and rates the strongest dog in the field. Has won four of his last seven races but needs further improvement to win this.

T3 Lonely Boy
Finished in front of three of these rivals when winning the Great North Run and has won five of his eight races since returning from a five month layoff. Bids to give Charlie Lister back-to-back wins in the event after Carbarns Tom's shock success last year. Has a bit to find on the clock but no surprise to see him go close given his connections.

T4 Luminous Park
Chances on narrow defeat to Lonely Boy in Great North heats (3rd in final) and open to further improvement over six bends (two from six) having stepped up in trip in September. Switch to a middle draw could suit.

T5 Goodview Hondo
Has run well at big odds in both heat and semis suggesting he may be returning to the form which saw him finish third in the Henlow Gold Cup in June. However remains without a win in 16 starts and is zero from six since switching back to six bends in September.

T6 Charleys Noire
Interesting outsider who showed marked improvement when second to Droopys Arshavin in her semi-final. Remains open to further progression after just eight races over six bends (four wins and four seconds). Probably needs to lead to win, but that looks highly possible.

Summary: A race with any number of possible outcomes, but while a victory for Lonely Boy would be no surprise, his price probably owes more to his Charlie Lister connections than his actual chance, with his form here below that he set when beating three of these rivals to win the Great North Run. Charleys Noire is improving, and could surprise, but might need a substantial lead to do so. Strong running Native Spree will be ready to punish any stamina doubts, but may not get to Droopys Arshavin quickly enough. Stuart Mason's sole unbeaten finalist, ironically with talk of his retirement pending, is arguably in the best form of his career and can control the inside en route to taking the valuable prize.

19:40 Marathon
Capoley Ash looks set to be the new marathon star and can further enhance his claims by again beating Ayamzagirl who he comfortably accounted for at Belle Vue.

20:00 Puppies
Skywalker Jack confirmed the promise of an excellent run behind a useful sort at Sheffield with a fast trial here last weekend and will be hard to beat.

20:15 Standard
In-form Droopys Rory with previous winning form here from the spring is given a narrow vote over Granard Bound, with both having recorded fast trials the other night. The latter found the six bend trip in Sheffield's 'Three Steps' final beyond him, but looks a potent threat back down in trip.

20:35 Sprint
A tricky contest with every chance of useful Hurry Back bouncing back to form after a good trial. However Skywalker Gold, by virtue of his status as the sole wide seed, is just preferred to Magna Buddy, whose strike rate has fallen away after a sprinting seven-timer in the spring.

20:50 Bitches
Despite the lack of a trial, red hot Brave Display can make it seven wins in her last ten races, with Pond Shefelia, far better than her defeat in Manchester would suggest a strong choice to follow her home.

21:10 Standard
Probably the hardest race of the night with Express Jazz, a winner here in April, given a tentative call by virtue of his excellent draw inside middle and wide seeds. Strong running Romeo Patrol would rate a potent threat with a clear run, but that cannot be guaranteed in a race with four wide seeds.

21:25 Brit Bred
Another difficult contest but worth taking a chance on former local grader and puppy Sevenup Bradders, whose sprinting form should gift him a run from a tricky trap four berth. Derby semi-finalist Destroy The Camp warrants respect on the outside.

Selections (in order of choice)
Capoley Ash 19:40
Skywalker Jack 20:00
Brave Display 20:50
Droopys Arshavin 21:45

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Justin Pipe was forced to watch one of Terry Jenkins' greatest 15 minutes before finally exiting the Grand Slam of Darts last night, with 'The Bull' prevailing over James Wade 5-3 to knock Pipe out. Raymond Van Barneveld also left the building after another under-par performance, losing 5-2 against Dean Winstanley. I can't, however, see many surprises happening tonight, but there are a few decent-priced certainties to get your teeth into.

Steve Beaton, for example, faces James Hubbard needing a win to qualify for the knockout stage. Hubbard, while far from disgracing himself in defeat to Taylor and King, hasn't really ever looked like winning and he hasn't posted a single maximum so far. His 5-3 defeat to King would have been a lot heavier had King converted more of his many chances at doubles. Beaton on the other hand has looked pretty comfortable at the oche thus far, winning his first game against King then running Taylor very close in the second. He should outscore his younger opponent this evening to qualify for the next round.

Magnus Caris, who posted a none-too-shabby 94.86 three dart average last time out, has enjoyed something of a renaissance in recent months, and is more than capable of nicking a few legs from the Aussie Geordie Paul Nicholson tonight. Nicholson, complete with 'Movember' moustache, is therefore worth a little lay, particularly given his very short odds of 1.3. Watch in-running for a risk-free trade.

Elsewhere, Arron Monk had a shocker in his game against Jan Dekker and comes up against one of the circuit's most experienced players in 'Darth Maple' John Part tonight. Part's odds of 1.62 represent the value bet of the evening in my humblest of opinions.

Recommended Bets
Dutch Beaton 5-1 and 5-2 for odds of around 3.0 or better
Lay Nicholson @ 1.3
Back Part @ 1.62 or better

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Back Part @ 1.62 or better

I feel like I've said this many times in recent years when discussing the shenanigans of Reality TV but I'll say it again; only in the land of The X Factor.

Only on The X Factor can you get a contestant eliminated in week one, confess to being happy at being off the show, sing (sorry shout) to a disinterested audience at my local town's firework display, get matched at 1000.0 in the Winner market, and then from almost nowhere, challenge for favouritism to be crowned this year's X Factor winner. You couldn't make it up, except in X Factor land we could, and probably should have.

True, I felt the decision to eliminate Amelia Lily so early was a wrong one, and I said as much here. But I'm not convinced that any act should have been brought back with just four weeks of the competition remaining, and most certainly not someone who might now have to sing just five or six times to emerge victorious.

Lily's return is not the only talking point from Saturday night's show however; Gary Barlow's persistent negative criticism of Janet Devlin has also provoked anger from Devlin's fans. Despite the Irish teenager singing more than adequately enough, Barlow, not for the first time, accused the Irish teenager of being boring and insisted that he is losing interest in her. Barlow ought to know that there's a huge difference between being a good singer and being a bad singer, regardless of how boring you are. And the last time I looked this was a singing competition.

Barlow's criticism of Devlin appears a little desperate in all honesty, a clear attempt to try and dissuade the public from voting for her.

It has been suggested that, as the head judge, Barlow has a big say in the singing order for each show. And if this is the case then it explains why Devlin has in all but one week performed early (and before fellow Girls competitor Misha Bryan). Contestants performing early generally have a poor record of surviving remember; though according to many reports in the last few days Devlin has been topping the public vote every week. No wonder Barlow is trying to shatter her confidence.

Unfortunately Barlow's antics appear to be working, and with mentor Kelly Rowland rumoured to have had a big rift with Devlin, the 17-year-old now looks to be in complete limbo.

I sincerely hope she can recover, and I really hope people keep voting for her, because after a troubled few weeks, singing in an early slot, being criticised to the hilt; well if she is topping the vote each week it means she has some following. And yet she can now be backed at 5.9 in the Winner market.

On Saturday we saw Marcus Collins (4.3) receive some criticism for the first time in a while, for performing in the same style as he had the previous week. I have no problem with an act performing similar numbers each week if that is what they are good at, though it was quite amusing to hear Barlow accuse Rowland and Tulisa Contostavlos of expressing, "tactical critique". Talk about the pot calling the kettle black and all that.

After Kitty Brucknell's exit this year's competition now looks wide open with Lily (4.4) just behind Collins in the Winner market, followed by Craig Colton (5.8), Devlin, Little Mix - aka Rhythmix - (7.4), and Bryan (16.0).

After a bad few weeks (betting wise) myself there was a small temptation to get Lily and Collins on side, thus guaranteeing that, should one of the first four in the betting win, I couldn't lose on this year's event. But I'd like to think I'm a little braver than that and more than capable of rescuing the situation. A big chance comes in the 11th Elimination market where Misha Bryan - the only remaining act to have been in the bottom two (and she's been there twice) - looks a standout wager at 3.0.

Recommended Bet
Back Misha Bryan @ 3.0 in 11th Elimination market (2pts)

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England v Sweden, KO: 20:00 live on ITV1

Before you all start getting carried away with England's 1-0 victory over Spain on Saturday night let me throw some incredible match stats at you.

Depending on which match report you read, the world and European champions enjoyed as much as 71% possession (compared to England's 29%); they had six corners to England's one, and almost unbelievably Spain fired in 22 goal attempts whilst the Three Lions' could muster just two shots on target and one off.

True, from Spain's 22 goal attempts only two were on target, and the most important statistic is the goals scored column; but on home soil, to concede that much possession and have so many shots at goal against you is extremely worrying. Quite frankly Spain are in a different league to England technically, and but for overplaying it at times they could easily have ran out comfortable winners on the night.

Fabio Capello's men now turn their attention to Sweden, a nation that England has an appalling record against in recent history. It has been more than 40 years, spanning 12 games (seven competitive, five friendly) since England beat Sweden, and the last three encounters on English soil have each ended all-square.

Capello is expected to field another 'experimental' side, though John Terry will return as captain despite ongoing FA and police investigations into an alleged racial abuse incident. Bolton defender Gary Cahill is expected to line-up alongside Terry, whilst in attack Chelsea forward Daniel Sturridge is being hotly tipped to win his first cap and partner Fulham's Bobby Zamora. Jack Rodwell and Kyle Walker may also be given their first England starts.

Match Odds

Despite a victory over the world's best national side at the weekend, England simply have to be a lay at 1.8 in this market. Sweden have always regarded a victory over the Three Lions as a huge scalp, and because so, they field a strong side whenever the two sides meet in a friendly international and generally play to the best of their ability.

Whilst Capello will field a much-changed side to the one that started against Spain at the weekend (and arguably a weaker one), Sweden boss Erik Hamren is expected to go with his strongest side possible which could include the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, former Bolton striker Johan Elmander, and Sunderland midfielder Sebastian Larsson. The Swedes lost 2-0 to Denmark on Saturday and they'll be keen to put that result behind them as soon as possible.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals / Both teams to Score

The fact that Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at just 1.84 is perhaps an overreaction to England's solid defensive display against Spain on Saturday. It's worth pointing out then that only Ashley Cole might survive from that defensive line-up (and the Spanish got behind him more than anyone else), whilst Rodwell might be employed to do the job Scott Parker did should the Tottenham midfielder be rested.

So with possibly four of England's key personnel from the Spanish game being changed I don't for one minute envisage England defending as well as they did at the weekend. They might not need to of course, but they certainly won't take to the field with the mentality that they will be called upon to defend as much as they did against Spain, and that could be their undoing. In comparison to the Spanish tiki-taka style of play, Sweden will be far more direct and I fancy them to get on the score sheet at least once.

For all these reasons then I favour Over 2.5 Goals massively at 2.14, and rate the Yes option at 2.0 in the Both teams to Score market an excellent wager also.

Correct Score

I'm happy to go with the wagers already advised above, but England games are hugely popular amongst the minimum-medium stake punters out there and therefore they love nothing more than a punt at decent odds in this market. The last two encounters between these two on home soil have ended 1-1, and that scoreline is available to back at 7.8, but as I fancy goals I am more than tempted to have a small wager on the 2-2 outcome - available to back at 20.0.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Both teams to Score @ 2.0
Lay England @ 1.8
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.14
Back 2-2 Correct Score @ 20.0

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