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Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg, KO 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4

We were right to predict goals in the first leg, and after seeing some of the defending and attacking on display in that game, high goals looks the smart way to play this time.

Zenit's 3-2 win was their sixth consecutive unbeaten game in the competition (equalling the Russian record set by Spartak Moscow 16 seasons ago) but Benfica are favourites to go through thanks to those two away goals. The Portuguese giants are 1.73 to reach the last eight, with Zenit 2.34, but the goals market has greater appeal than the odds-on hosts, who I think might nick a win.

I was surprised to find over 2.5 goals as large as 1.92 considering the way the two sides played in that first leg. There were plenty of chances, some lax defending and some good finishing. Benfica will be confident that if they tighten up just a little bit, they will go through, but it would be no surprise to see Zenit score at least once as they were excellent going forward three weeks ago. For their part, Benfica have scored at least once in each of their last 11 European games, so I expect to see the 2.5 goals barrier broken. A slightly more cautious alternative, to cover the 1-1 draw, would be to back both teams to score at 1.83.

Benfica are 1.71 to win in 90 minutes, and are a decent bet to do so looking at some of the historic stats: as Opta points out, the Portuguese have won five and drawn two of their last seven European home games (excluding qualifiers), while Zenit have failed to win in four on the road (W0-D2-L2). There's little difference in price between Benfica to win on the night or go through, so I prefer backing the hosts to win in order to cover the 3-2 (which would force extra-time) and the 4-3 scorelines (more plausible than it sounds considering how the first leg went).

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92.
Other Recommended Bet: Benfica to win in 90 minutes @ 1.73.

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