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Why Barack Obama won't be the next US President
The optimism of four years ago has vanished, the economy continues to struggle and there is little discernible difference from George Bush's much-maligned tenure, with Guantanamo Bay still open for business in spite of promises otherwise. Support from minorities is dwindling, with African-American and, to a lesser extent, Latino voters gradually losing faith, and it won't take a huge shift for traditionally Republican states like North Carolina and Florida, which Obama won by slim margins in 2008, to swing back to the right. History is against him too, with Bill Clinton the only Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt to have been elected for two terms.

Why Spain won't win Euro 2012
The European Championship has never been retained, and three of the last four winners didn't even make it out of their group the next time out. Vicente del Bosque's side have lost their aura of invincibility since the World Cup too, suffering four friendly defeats, one against a relatively under-strength England team. Also troubling is the prospect of being without all-time record scorer David Villa in Poland and Ukraine after he broke his leg in December, rendering it unlikely that he will play for Barcelona again this season. Villa won the Golden Boot at Euro 2008 and struck seven times in qualifying for this edition.

Why Lewis Hamilton will win the Drivers' Championship
The FIA somehow get away with ripping up the rulebook whenever it suits their interests and sadly for Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel, the bigwigs don't want them dominating in the sport's first season on Sky Sports, so have banned exhaust blown diffusers. Vettel's bid to become the second man in 54 years to win three titles in a row has therefore been compromised and, despite a tough 2011, Lewis Hamilton, cited by Fernando Alonso as "the one who's able to clinch a championship with a car that's not the best" and a top-five finisher in the drivers' standings in all five of his Formula One seasons, has all the tools to take advantage.

Why Usain Bolt won't win the Olympics 100 metres
Bolt is the main man in athletics right now, however don't be shocked if he learns in London that he is involved in the most fickle of sports, where icons change in four-year cycles. Just one man has won the Olympic 100 metres twice (Carl Lewis) and there has been no two-time male winner of the 100, 200, 400, 800, 1500 or 5000 metres this century, and only one female, so Bolt's chances of claiming gold in both the 100 and 200 metres again appear slim. An example of the fine margins that decide 100 metres contests was provided last year when a false start cost him World Championship glory.

Why Cadel Evans will win the Tour de France
The Contrarian rarely backs defending champions, as shown by the choices above, and indeed by opposing Alberto Contador last year, but is making an exception for 2011 Tour de France king Evans, with the statistics supporting such a decision. Repeat victories are a regular occurrence in cycling's marquee event, with just nine winners in the last 21 years and the trio of Miguel Indurain, Lance Armstrong and Contador prevailing in 15 of those. Additionally, seven different cyclists have enjoyed repeat victories in the last 40 years alone.

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