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Chelsea v Everton, Saturday 17:30, Live on ESPN

Everton's record against Chelsea over the past two seasons - played six, won two and drawn four - is sensational considering the difference in stature of the two clubs, and is testament to David Moyes' tactical ability that he continues to cause big sides problems. That said, it's arguable that this season he has his weakest squad for years, and Everton also had a good record against Manchester City, but were unable to preserve that unbeaten run.

The most interesting tactical feature of that game was Moyes' decision to man-mark David Silva with Jack Rodwell, which largely stopped the threat of Silva, but did create space for others to exploit. With Chelsea possessing a similarly creative, pivotal player in Juan Mata, will Moyes choose to do the same again? It would be a different situation, since Mata plays higher up the pitch on the left, so Moyes might ask his right-back, Tony Hibbert or Phil Neville, to stick tightly to him. With the defensive-minded Seamus Coleman ahead capable of covering that zone when the right-back moves across, it might be a good option.

That would effectively create a five-man backline, slightly narrowing the midfield and creating space down the flanks for Chelsea's full-backs to exploit. Ashley Cole and Jose Bosingwa will get time on the ball, and the absence of Fernando Torres might work well for Chelsea - Didier Drogba will be more of an aerial threat for deliveries from wide positions.

Moyes also has to make a decision about what to do higher up the pitch. Deprived of top-level forwards, in games like this he's often had to field Tim Cahill upfront alone. This game, however, surely requires Louis Saha upfront. Now 33, he still has a burst of pace to get in behind opposition defences, and that's where Chelsea have been most vulnerable this season. Andre Villas-Boas wants his side to press, but it is doubtful whether his centre-backs have the speed to cover the space in behind them. John Terry has picked up three yellow cards from seven Premier League games so far this season - worth backing at 4.5 or more to pick up a card here. Cahill would play a deeper role, covering Chelsea's holding player, though he often manages to pop up with a goal in this game.

It will be interesting to see how Villas-Boas sets out his midfield. Frank Lampard will surely start after his hattrick at Bolton, Ramires will shuttle forward from the right, but who will play the holding role? This is probably where Raul Meireles comes in, likely to be picked ahead of Jon Obi Mikel for his more positive passing. Meanwhile, Villas-Boas' selection on the right could be either Nicolas Anelka or Daniel Sturridge, but that player has a big defensive responsibility - Leighton Baines' forward runs and crossing was crucial in this fixture last year, and he's arguably Everton's biggest attacking threat, even from left-back.

This looks like being a low-scoring fixture, with Chelsea dominating and trying to break down a packed Everton defence, and the away side rarely getting up the pitch. With last year's fixtures between the sides finishing 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 and 1-1, I'm a little surprised to see Under 2.5 goals available to back at 2.3.

Recommended bets:
Back John Terry to be shown a card at 4.5
Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.3

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