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Match Odds

Manchester United are a bit like newly-crowned US Open champ Novak Djokovic at the moment. When they go behind you always feel that somehow they'll find a way to win because they are that resourceful and have that much self-belief. I'm not sure too many teams could beat Manchester City from two goals down as happened in early August. But just like the 'Serbinator', more often than not they don't even need to worry about comebacks because they seem to go ahead from very early on and are brilliant front-runners.

That said, there are good reasons to oppose them here at odds-on when they face Benfica. The last time these two met, almost six years ago, Benfica came from 1-0 down to beat Sir Alex Ferguson's men 2-1 and in the process knocked them out of the competition. Benfica's starting XI is a lot better now than it was on that night.

We should also point to the fact that United started last season's Champions League campaign sluggishly with a 0-0 draw at home to Rangers and remember that Benfica are unbeaten in eight matches so far this season in all competitions. Are United justified favourites? Yes. Should they be odds-on to win the game? No.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

By far the most obvious bet in this match is that the electronic scoreboard at the wonderful Estadio Da Luz will change at least three times. After all, United's last five matches have all been 'overs' (and some well over!) and for Benfica it's four from their last five.

Both sides play a high-tempo game and are stronger going forward than they are defending. The relatively inexperienced duo of Chris Smalling and Phil Jones have been outstanding but, that City match aside, United's back five haven't had to face too much quality. This could be the game where, in a red-hot atmosphere against seasoned campaigners such as Oscar Cardozo, Javier Saviola and Pablo Aimar, they find that this business of keeping clean sheets isn't quite as easy as it seems.

The only reason 'overs' is as big as 2.0 is that the first match of the Group Stages have a somewhat lazy reputation for being cagey affairs but the aforementioned stats and the rich attacking talent on show should mean we get at least three goals.

To Score

Speaking of goals, Benfica's Spanish winger Nolito has a habit of being amongst them. He couldn't quite cut the mustard at Barcelona, the poor fellow, but has become a real fans' favourite with his Tevez/Rooney-like hunger and controlled aggression and penchant for scoring for fun. He netted three goals in the four matches Benfica played to get to this stage of the Champions League and has scored a further two from four in the league. He's one of those midfielders - like Tim Cahill, Paul Scholes or David Platt - who pops up in forward positions and just loves scoring goals. The aforementioned duo of Saviola and Cardozo are considerably shorter to score at anytime but that's largely based on reputation. This is a great chance to back a lesser known in-form goalscorer at a great price (4.5)before the word gets out about his prowess in front of goal.

Wayne Rooney has been in fantastic goalscoring form for both club and country this campaign but this may just be the match in which to oppose him. For starters there's a possibility that Sir Alex Ferguson may show Benfica more respect than he has his Premier League opponents to date and a play a 4-5-1. Rooney would of course be the most advanced player in this system and though that means he's the most obvious goal threat, it may also mean he may find it hard to adapt to this system for the first time this campaign. The former Everton man cut a frustrated figure in that match six years ago and, at this very same stadium, broke his foot as England crashed out to Portugal in Euro 2004, so this is hardly a happy hunting ground for him. He's such a short price because United are over-rated to win this match to start with and because he's been in such good form in front of goal but for our money, he's too short and we should lay him at around 2.2.

Best Back:
Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.0

Recommended Bet:
Back Nolito to score @ 4.5

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