Betting.Betfair

If it's National week then it must be time for that annual debate about whether Cheltenham Festival form will travel north up the M5 and M6 to Aintree.

The short answer is that some of it will and some of it won't, but I make no apologies for nosing on Paul Nicholls given that the champion trainer saddles the first three favourites at restrictive prices this Thursday.

Big Buck's, Zarkandar and Denman are the trio in question and you won't get much more than 7.0 about all three of them obliging. However, I'm hoping it will be a case of two out of three ain't bad for Nicholls on day one.

And, call me a glutton for punishment, but I'm taking one more crack at Big Buck's with Grands Crus in the Liverpool Hurdle at 14:00. David Pipe's gelding has a little under two lengths to find with BB on World Hurdle form and in order to have a chance of reversing the placings he needs to do something different. And that something different is surely to kick for home off the final bend.

It came as a surprise to see Grands Crus ridden to pounce late in a slowly-run race at Cheltenham. Perhaps more aggressive tactics will just set things up for BB again, but at 4.5 I can't help thinking there is a little value in raising a glass to Grands Crus just one more time.

Long Run and Imperial Commander both swerve the Totesport Bowl at 15:05, but don't be surprised if the layers are out to get Denman despite the fact that he has over a stone in hand on Timeform figures. Some observers are adamant that the mighty chestnut isn't quite the horse he once was and that Liverpool's tight, flat track is against him. But I'm not so sure about the latter point. Denman remains a formidable chaser aged 11 and ran a tremendous race to finish a clear second in Long Run's Gold Cup last month.

The recent rain looks a major boost to his chance and, with the freewheeling Nacarat set to make this a true test, I rate him fair value at around 2.24 to show that he's more than capable of winning at Aintree under these conditions.

Don't be surprised to see plenty of people siding with Grandouet to reverse Triumph Hurdle form with Zarkandar in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at 14:30. But some of those people will probably be surprised to hear that their main reason for backing Grandouet could be fatally flawed.

Make no mistake, Grandouet is a very fast horse and the way he travelled in the Triumph was impressive. However, a glance back through the winning times over the years shows that this race represents every bit as stern a stamina test as the Cheltenham contest.

The bottom line is that Zarkandar looked stronger the further he went at Cheltenham and was firmly in charge close home. He's clearly open to more improvement after just two starts over hurdles and I reackon he fully deserves to be trading at around 1.8 to maintain his unbeaten record.

Recommended Bets
14:00: Back Grands Crus at 4.5 or bigger
14:30: Back Zarkandar at 1.8 or bigger
15:05 Back Denman at 2.24 or bigger

For more Grand National meeting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/grand-national/