England selector Geoff Miller was quoted during an interview that he gave last month and made to sound like a script writer for a blue comedian from a bygone era! He said "Size obviously does matter. We've got cover in bouncy areas but people who can swing as well!" Ignoring the double entendres (that Benny Hill would have been proud of ) there is a message of intent in that statement.
England have three pace bowlers in their Ashes squad, Chris Tremlett, Steve Finn and Stuart Broad who measure 6 ft 6 ins or more (no big boy comments please)! The advantage of delivering the ball from height on hard and bouncy tracks is obvious and the higher the hand is at the moment of delivery the greater the danger to the batsmen. There has been a lot of talk about taking the game to the Aussies and subjecting them to a barrage of accurate, short pitch bowling.
There is a fundamental flaw in that plan. It's a given that touring batsmen struggle against pace and bounce Down Under but the natives have been brought up on those wickets and learn to play off the back foot from a very early age. Dropping the ball in short is likely to play into their hands, they'll duck and dive until the ball starts to soften and the bowlers tire and then cut and pull off the back foot. The Aussies might not have introduced Bodyline but their generations have learned from it and if the Aussies don't lose early wickets it's vital that there is a Plan B and a Plan C.
Plan B will be swing, moving the ball in the air. James Anderson won't be digging it in short, he'll be bowling a good length and aiming to get the kookaburra ball to swing. So much will depend on the climatic conditions and England will be praying for a fair share of cloud cover. If the sun is blazing down and Anderson has to rely solely on movement off the seam for his wickets then it will be time for Plan C.
So much is expected of Graeme Swann and there's no doubt that the Australian batsmen will target him and try and hit him out of the attack. Swann is no shrinking violet, he won't take a backward step and he'll back himself if Ponting and co. come after him. But he can't bowl from both ends on a spin friendly wicket so let's hope that Monty Panesar hasn't been picked only to carry the drinks and pass on instructions. On turning Aussie wickets there is room for both Swann and Panesar despite the fact that even after having worked on his batting Monty is still a full blown rabbit (thank goodness Miller never used that term!)
But England's batting line up is long and deep (it's easy to see how Miller fell into Benny Hill speak!) and if Kevin Pietersen finds some form they might just be able to accommodate Panesar. They must not keep picking Anderson if it is blatantly obvious that conditions are not to his liking.
So which bowling strategy will prevail Down Under? Betfairians seem to think that spin is the key. Swann has been backed as short as 2.12 to be England's leading wicket taker although he is currently available at 2.34. The swing of Anderson trades at 6.8 but he has been backed as high as 9.6 and Broad leads the betting as far as the Jolly Green giants are concerned at 5.1 to back.
England head Down Under with a balanced bowling attack and in-form bowlers and they have devised a strategy that they believe they will enable them to take 20 wickets in a match. England supporters don't care if Benny Hill has written the script, they just want to win!
By Frank Gregan
(read more at betting.betfair.com)