Don't mind me, Zoot. I'm jus messin

Do continue

This ?

https://twitter.com/UneducatedFlog/with_replies

I'm Hungary

Sick Fxck.

Henry will be back soon.

You two have a lot in common. He's taking up equine perving too.

and by the way Jim eats there's not enough food to go around either

I echo Kami’s comment to continue contributions to the forum. As I mentioned earlier it is a great boutique forum and you seem to have an ability to articulate thoughts noting of course my other earlier comment that you seem to rely on broad brush stroke type comments and conclusions.

You are yet to face devil’s advocate number 1 Thebas.  Bjt will be a great point of reference for percentages and TINS and Kami will clip you if you cross the line. Do not despair as luv is often in the air.

Meanwhile I believe I have identified a burdensome weight you have placed upon yourself namely your comment “Betting is too tough a taskmaster”

Betting is like mobile phones----they are useful provided you control them and not let them control you. The perception that betting is a “tough taskmaster” is likely to be an insight into the sum of your experiences. Just a thought. Might be wrong.

Betting is should be more like a mistress you court , flirt with and benefit from if you can.

Curious that this perception extends beyond betting not just being a taskmaster but a tough one.

You also make reference to luck. That is all good but as a point of reference to something negative namely for luck to last long is a scenario you seem to imply you wait for. (Glass half empty perception)

Ok again keep contributions coming.

Importantly for now UK races start shortly…yippee!!

Mistresses often break up marriages.

I think we all need to work out how to migrate to HL's parallel universe - seems to be a nice spot to sit quaffing chardonnay, being fed grapes and caviar whilst betting against old nags and donkeys masquerading as racehorses and where 8, 12% or whatever commission level is a mere trifle nipping away at the edges of the steam of profits.

I'm still peeling grapes (in my hi-vis gear) for AussieDriver and he's been most unfriendly of late.

Perhaps I should ask Henry if he needs a grape-peeling equine pervert assistant.

henry you have mentioned on many an occasion that the price of a horse you lay ... means nothing to you 10/1 12/1 20/1

you have mentioned that if you think a horse is a lay then it therefore has ... zero chance ... of winning


so in that light I can understand you do not to see the relevance of 2-3% commission where others can

that sir ... I consider bravado

Henry.
This difference isn't a mere 3 dollars per 100 though, unless, you win EVERY bet.

If you don't win every bet than any increase to commission paid is exaggerated by your strike rate.

What percentage of people do you think pay the Premium Charge?  I would suggest not a lot.  The PC in its basic form, is if you don't generate 40% commission in relation to your profits, then you pay the PC to ensure you do.

I have no idea what percentage of people pay the PC, but if you consider those that are considered elite on BF actually pay 800% the actual commission rate to Betfair, then 3% quite quickly turns into 24%.  And that is for the very best.  For the rest, that figure is much higher.

Now to be in profit on Betfair, (forget about commission generated arguments and call it commission paid instead just for ease of use), means you pay less than 100% of your profits to Betfair in commission.

How many people actually profit from Betfair?  Less than 5%?  Less than 5% of users are paying less than 2000% of the commission rate based on their betting activities.  They are paying less than 20 times the base rate (old base rate) of what the actual figure is.

A jump from 5% to 8% for somebody breaking even before commission, actually represents being 60% worse off with the extra 3%.

Say 5% are profitable, and 1% are paying PC.  I think (from memory) that if you have a 10% advantage over the market, puts you in PC range, meaning 80% of profitable punters on Betfair have less than a 10% advantage.
The jump from 5% to 8% will actually eat up 25-30% of their profits.

Now going back to a 100% punter, before commission.

Let us say somebody bets enough and they have a net result of zero on Betfair, with 100,000 dollars in net wins.  Meaning of course, that they have won 100,000 and paid 100,000 in commission. 
At 5%.
At 8%, that means they will effectively be 100,000 wins, and paying 60,000 in commission.

How many people do you know that can afford that?

If you are paying PC, it really doesn't matter much as they pay the same rate regardless.  But for everybody else, don't underestimate exactly what it means.

BJT 26 Jul 15 08:43 Joined: 30 Oct 04 | Topic/replies: 21,919 | Blogger: BJT's blog
Henry.
This difference isn't a mere 3 dollars per 100 though, unless, you win EVERY bet.


BJT, I explained that to him on page 1, yet here he is on page 4 still saying the same thing.

Hard to believe someone who makes such basic mistakes is winning better than 10% on T/O, then again he does have his own branch of maths, he must have

Henry

If you are very profitable - well over say 10% ROI, the shift from 5% to 8% would be annoying but you could live with it.  Perhaps you are in this category? Or perhaps you are laying long shots and have not had a bad run yet? (bad runs with long shots can be like an elevator trip downwards - you wake up one morning and 4 months profits can be gone). The trouble with laying longshots is that you have no idea whether you have a profitable strategy until you have done many thousands of bets. It can be months of chardonay and caviar and then WTF when a couple of 100 to 1 shots win in quick succession.

When I've watched a 500 to 1 shot win it is hard not to think of the 499 winning bets this may have wiped out for some poor soul.

ROI on longshots is almost impossible to measure until you have say 10,000 bets under your belt.So Henry would probably not be able to work out if high commission matters to him for a long time.  By then it may be too late.

I believe laying longshots can be profitable but it requires a huge act of faith in your approach cause your performance will tell you nothing of any meaning for a long time especially once you get over odds of 50.

Back to the 8% issue:

For a newbie assuming being totally breakeven before commssion, in a quick model I did for someone betting 5% of their bank, 8% commission would drain 25% of their bank over 100 bets just through commission alone.  This plus being carved up by the sharks (old hands)could well make their BF experience pretty unpleasant, especially now the bookies often have better odds.

Most successful punters are working on 1-3% profit after commission.  An increase of 1% cuts all, or at least, a third of their profit out.  Happy to lose half or all their profit - doubt it.  They will either shrink their betting to niche systems that are very high profit or go the bookies or lower commission markets.  All of which lose money for BF Australia.

The debate in this thread shows that many punters will not understand the significance immediately but eventually they will twig either through analysis or just sensing that they seem to be losing steadily and walk away.  Short term gain for BF but medium term pain.

Apart from the bit about betting 5% of your bank. That is insanely reckless!

Agree.

Sounds painful?

Reported! I don't think you're allowed to say a********s anymore. You should've checked with Thebas before posting potentially divisive language.

Speaking of divisive how's Step Daddy going??

Check your Blurt. If there's a penis in there ask your Step Daddy how's he doing? Backing a winner lately?