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This rate in some markets puts profits out of reach of mere mortals. If you do what if analysis and shift commission around you will see almost all winning approach killed off. Most are gone by 6.5%, almost none survive 8% Trading maybe just but not staight back and lay.
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USA racing 5%
Vic Racing/SA 6% still some options for a best-comms hunter |
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No rent / no staff....no on course fees...no traffic jams in morning .... 8 10 12 % who cares ....the facility that gives the ability to lay......priceless
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analysis and shift commission .... you will see almost all winning approach killed off.
Please explain  I see fixed price on tv to show leading to race 144% and near post time 127%. BF of course is near to 100% Percentage take is different to commission...but nevertheless the likelihood is that the price you get on BF much more generous/// Anyway rather than "you will see.." reference perhaps you can demonstrate....with numbers and by way of example..... Trading maybe just but not staight back and lay. Would be very interested to see how paying say $80 on profit of $1000.00 rather than say $50.00 is going to prejudice say me .....Man .....$30 is coffee and cake for 2 |
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Henry you assume that the $1000 profit is achieved without any losses as thats the only way you would pay only $80, 1stly though the 8% is before your discount structure, only your 1st few bets would cop the full 8%. so for arguments sake, lets say a person is on 40% discount, it brings rate down to 4.8% commission, you win 1k 10 times and lose 1k 9 times, you're a gross winner of 1k but have paid $480 in comms, net profit of $520, whereas at the old 5% comm less 40% discount you would've paid $300 in comms, thats a difference of $220 and thats if you're winning 10% of T/O a lot of winning punters are winning less than 10% of T/O so its a bit more than a coffee & cake for 2.
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Thebas i'm too old to change states or countries ffs
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you win 1k 10 times and lose 1k 9 times Sounds like a waste of time or someone gambling as a hobby with alternative income to support.... imo Man what's say those 9 losses happen before the 10 wins (  )In any event ....Good analysis Spy WD |
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Do you pay the premium charge Henry?
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If you download a months history from your betting, then apply 5%, 6.5% and 8% to wins before commission you will see what I mean. Of course high volume bettors may get it down substantially by the discount but what about the 99% who are needed to keep the exchange alive? They are getting cleaned out at a rapid pace by 8% commission. The impact is very dramatic during a break even run that can happen to anyone. During such a run every win loses 8% off the top. High commission can be handled with a very profitable approach that is consistently so. But if you don't have that you will be affected heavily during break even and losing streaks. It compounfs any poor run.
Newbies banks will be drained nice and quick as they try to learn the ropes and will not stick around long enough to become regular users. Short term gain for BF if that. Long term it will cot them a lot. |
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Spy
Training wheels have only recently come off  |
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I assume from that Henry that you were on the wrong side of the ledger for a fair period of time yet you scoff at someone showing around 10% gross profit.
Also you say what if the 9 1k losses came in a row, well it would be bad if he was staking 10% or more of his bank each time, but I think I can safely say someone that is winning around 10% ROI is not risking anywhere near 10% of bank at 1 time. Good to hear you're doing well Henry |
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assume from that Henry that you were on the wrong side of the ledger for a fair period of time yet
Strange assumption and uncertain from whence it came..... 10% gross profit. This is a great return for money...so didnt mean to "scoff" BF is not however imo a matter of passive income.....requires many many many hours.....It is in these circumstances that yes I do consider 10% to be inadequate as opposed to the "hobbyist" who might invest very little time .... Time is an important variable to be considered when it comes to weighing up the "is it worth it" aspect to any activity we may undertake..... Spy --Would you want to give your time to anything for 10% return for say 35 hours per week .....(as distinct from say passive income eg share div's/ capital gain)..I know I wouldnt |
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8% commission means you that for a 3.00 shot you are taking 2.84. You are a fan of the late Don Scott I believe henry. I don't recall the chapter "The Path To Riches Lies In Backing $3.00 horses at $2.84" Maybe it was in the Appendix somewhere!
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The assumption came from you saying trainer wheels have just come off
Would someone give their time for 10% profit per week, all depends on their turnover Henry, you should understand that |
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you are a fan of the late Don Scott
No fan here.....I could never understand the fuss especially as he committed suicide and left heap of debt....I recall others here spruiking his ideas as before their time. $3.00 horses at $2.84" BF spruikes their prices being 20% better than fixed price....prudent shopping for right price on an exchange is a skill....anticipating swings etc My observation is that prices are always better on BF anyway....others may see differently... IMO prices are just arbitrary numbers anyway....2.84/3.00 4.00 ..who cares I think the point to the central theme here is at what point is all our efforts on BF worth that effort..... Again Kami ...if you spent 35 hours a week (as you may do ..) would you be happy with 10% return for your efforts ...again reminding of course that this is not passive income and requires many many hours..... 10% is great as passive income (do nil effort or next to little effort) My point is that anyone happy with that return is a hobbyist .....whether they know it or not... Perhaps as often the case I misinterpret matters....eg If you lay say liability of 100 units at say return of 10 units five times then in my head that is a return of 50% (as it is the same 100 units).....Perhaps what others are saying and are more correct than I is that that scenario is an investment of 5x100 (=500 units with a return of 50 being 10%) In those circumstances then there is agreement. Kami...laying 100 units 5 different times ....is that an outlay (investment) of 500 units or just the same 100 units.....which is what I would be wanting more than 10% return on..... Interesting discussion and hope the reply is constructive |
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if a layer laid 20 horses straight at 10/1 and got them all beaten to win $100 a race
then $2000 profit divided by the $20,000 risk outlayed as the turnover is a 10% profit if the 21st runner wins the race then the layer loses a grand and their running profit is $1000 divided by $21,000 turnover (lay outlay held by BF till the race outcome is decided) leaves the punter with a profit roi of 4.76% does the layer then quit his laying due to the less than 5% roi ... because there is no point in wasting their time doing it anymore ? |
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8% commission deduction not factored in yet of course
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I think Henry is using a different branch of maths to the rest of us Thebas
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Perhaps as often the case I misinterpret matters....eg
If you lay say liability of 100 units at say return of 10 units five times then in my head that is a return of 50% (as it is the same 100 units).....Perhaps what others are saying and are more correct than I is that that scenario is an investment of 5x100 (=500 units with a return of 50 being 10%) In those circumstances then there is agreement. Thebas As often the case I misinterpret..... imo I see that as the same 1000 and the return on that same 1000 in your example is 100%.....so for that same 1000 .... See ROI refers to investment (I) and not turnover (not ROT) Differently stated ...I have decided to invest (hence ROI) $1000 not $20000 |
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so you didn't give betfair the $20,000 to hold until the race was over ... they've given you a better deal than most layers
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Maybe the equivalent of 20 000 Iraqi dollars
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Maybe the equivalent of 20 000 Iraqi dollars
... that's what it's starting to seem like ... after an 8% deduction takes place |
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Theres that different branch of maths I was talking about
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Still in my mind I decide to "invest an amount per day"....
I dont think of turnover cause simply dont know how many lays there will be... Lets say Spy decides to invest x units and spy collects as a layer 10% 4 times....then Spy has a 40% return on the x units.... IMO Spy's ROI is 40 % Spy's turnover is 4 times x units....then a % on Spy's turnover is different to % on Spy's investment. Back to the 8% versus 6 % discussion......will just cut down on coffee and cake.... |
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GL Henry
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Cheers Spy...you too GL
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BF may spruik their prices as being 20% higher. Higher than their competitors prices. Not 20% higher than the actual real price. Their markets are very close to 100% so in the long term they're very accurate.
Times have changed a bit since they used that marketing tool. I don't think their prices are 20% better than their competitors anymore especially with an increasing commission not to mention PC. |
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Exactly why they dropped the 20% better from their advertising as its no longer even minutely close to the truth
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they stopped advertising WAP's for the same reason i'd guess. So many BF SP's are now significantly shorter than tote divi's... on the good things always and recently becoming worse and worse as more desperate bookies are laying off as late as possible. To get best trade here is now a practise that involves a sense of timing that is bordering on fortune telling and needs to be done with a crystal ball... imo
 BF used to be soooooooo good...... wtf happened. |
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So many BF SP's are now significantly shorter than tote divi's...
Not my observation.....will keep eye out today (24.7) To get best trade here is now a practise that involves a sense of timing that is bordering on fortune telling and needs to be done with a crystal ball.. That is what betfair graphs are for .. to be read analysed and interpreted....otherwise ..just dart throwing to determine which way the swing BF used to be soooooooo good..... Still is... price swings more than fixed prices for win bets and can lay without overheads except for 5-8% commission... (Disneyland stuff imo) WD betfair...keep it up and if pissy increase in commission keeps shareholders happy so be it.... |
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geelong race 2 laid Rivers Gift on looks
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another example at geebung in race 1. Downhearted superscum tote divi ends up at 31.0/1.......... ten years ago you would have snagged 80/1 or near on betty, but today BF SP was .......... 31.0/1
 shocking stuff. |
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geelong race 3 laid Bian Late
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wd henry.
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Thought you had a $16 limit henry?
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Henry if I have 10 win bets,backs,at $100 each in one day are you saying my turnover is $100?
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Cheers Veryltu
I drove home from Brisbane last night (northside to GC south end ) so 1.5 hours pondering this notion of ROI....on any given day As is obvious I am a betfair fan ..being unemployable at 56 (next). I note I have a millionaire brother so I am blessed as always have a safety net Having said that I do try and rely and encourage others to rely on the Betfair phenomenon to pay for petrol and phone credit etc etc I pondered this notion of ROI Today I am laying liabilities of 750 units on those where their physic just make them otherwise absolutely no hope....zero zip zilch (end of the day will tell of course) I must confess Friday is usually a no no for betting for me but I have increased desire to point out how others can perhaps survive on betfair. (been for the walk on the beach) As a tea toddler and non gambler on a Friday this is a rare day as I have consumed almost a bottle of Chardoney. The weeks been good and I may be in Brisbane tomorrow (another rare day I may be helping my bro who is in coffee and I claim a small interest in the very lucrative business ... I am laying others but posting or believe I am posting those with zero ...zip ...zilch chance of winning (based on looks ) and hoping to show any young guns of how to win (without being greedy). Essentially I am hoping to get to 50% aggregated ROI without fretting .....fundamental point of this thread namely what is ROI and how to profit During drive home last night concluded that ROI relates only to each individual decision to lay or to back bet at the end of the day there is an aggregate ROI Having 20 or so bets and looking at net result I have concluded is Return on turnover ..... The result of Each individual bet / risk is the ROI and at end of day or given period is the ROT (return on turnover) ...which I accept many will disagree with, I have an enormous interest in the physic of the horse ... Having said that I have had to exclude horses I am dissatisfied with that are under 6.00...dont know why but despite any negative appearance attributes they can from time time win,,,,,anyway under 6.00 is always an exclusion....(as are races less than 7 runners and those pesky 2 year old races and hurdles) Hiccup!! GL LTU |
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Kami
I have 10 win bets,backs,at $100 each in one day are you saying my turnover is $100? I suggest your turnover is $1000.00 ...hence any return is to be defined as ROT ( return on turnover) |
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Thought you had a $16 limit henry?
Most definitely my alien patterns have this limit...today I am focussed on horse physic.. hiccup!! |
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..... hmmmm punting on chardonnay Henry ??? This is starting to feel like a Keith Moon moment. As we know, Keith loved punting whilst copiously taking chardonnay and cherry brandy.
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