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THE ART OF PUNTING ---------- ON RACEHORSES
THE ART OF PUNTING ---------- ON RACEHORSES
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in 1987 in the Maroochydore Library of all places I chanced across a book that was about to change my life.
No it wasn't the Book of Mormon, the Bible or the Koran but it was written by a messiah. The incomparable one and only Stan Bergstein...... Stanley F. Bergstein (June 19, 1924 – November 2, 2011) was an American sports executive. He was the executive vice president of the Harness Tracks of America from 1961 to 2011. He was the first person to be inducted into both the Harness Racing Hall of Fame and it's Communicator's Hall of Fame. It was written in the 70's about how to bet on American harness racing but it's principles applied to betting on harness racing anywhere. Basically it dissected the relationship of class and form concentrating on the two most important form factors which are times and class (dropping and rising in grade). Stan reckoned there were two types of horses in a race = contenders and non contenders. Importantly he also stressed which races to avoid, basically it's better to be a "one bet Barney" than try to pick every winner (impossible!). Other form factors according to Stan are qualifying (trial) performances, improved post position, driver changes. My own motto is TIMES ARE EVERYTHING 27 years of winning later I can't thank you enough Stan and hope you're enjoying your journey on the other side....R.I.P. |
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vk went to yonkers one night at the end of Stanley dancers career grew up with the saying he drove it like Stanley dancer thought it was amyth as ayoung tike blow me down he drove a winner for me never stumbled on the book myself sounds like a good read scotts leagle book once kept me on the straight an narrow for about 18 months prosperouse neddless to say eventually thought bigger then smaller more I think about it dangerouse more im gunna get it get it
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great yarn about yonkers and the other Stan who's an American legend syt......the age old road to glory....model yourself on those who have succeeded before you.....learn from others mistakes where possible and learn from your own
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I hope Detective Bookman is not after you!
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good luck to him.....there's no evidence.....had to burn it so no one could use the knowledge to foil me
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heres my art of punting,back redwolf next wyong..will sit 1 pegs and win..
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"give a man a fish and you feed him for a day......teach a man to fish and you feed him for life"
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Just Back Tonkin.Stewart Stable, Margret Lee and Braun at the moment and u Just keep collecting
Find a Horse just keep backing it and Collectiong when it wins Celebrate and treat yourself. Have a Job and only bet Max 1/5 of what you earn per week Break that rule and you are living with no Power to scared to go out incase u owe them money |
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If it is fitter than others, back every way you can find.
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meticulous records
betting 0.5 to 1 % of bank  Good tools and I can't dispute the logic....but gee, no fun for us recreational punters. Think it was STS? who advocated LEVEL STAKES as his preferred staking method? Mine's all over the place.  Sometimes find myself (since BFair) having something on more than 1 in a race further clouds the issue. Think I want to tighten up with some rules.....not many though  |
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 Jim! just saw your response.Not sure how much "form" you do but as an equine pervert who does none, I think backing more than 1 in a race or perhaps PLACE betting is probably best to cover that shortcoming?......... (and all the variables of "racing" ) |
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Spoon you're forgetting the most important ingredient though to the recipe for success before you begin to think about having your first bet you must nail the non dominant left hand throw of your scrunched up plastic newspaper wrapping from the chair in your study into you bin, it's an extremely high degree of difficulty then and only then will you know if today's your day.
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 Any more punting pearls, Lets? |
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the biggest mystery is how can that young kiwi songstress Lorde win two grammys for Royals
and not even be nominated for the best new act......beggars belief......maybe she wasn't 100% fit? Metallica....WOW........stole the show with One.....catch the replay on FOX8 showing now |
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In all seriousness don't bet credit under any circumstances, don't bet beyond what you can afford to lose, remember that there's always another race and if not we're all in trouble anyway and don't cut corners when doing your form, you will get away with it every now and then but it will eventually turn around and bite you on the arrse.
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that all depends what class of human you are.....Alexander the Great went ALL IN with every battle
that's why people are still in awe of him over 2000 years later Alexander, Napoleon, Julius Caesar and the like were the biggest punters ever being not quite on Alexanders level I used to spend 20% of my bank a day......and I'm still here!!! life is too short to be conservative......ROLL THE DICE......if you CRASH AND BURN......GET A REAL JOB! |
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how many times do you have to be told a 10% Usain Bolt would flog you if you were 2000% fit
True ... but generally irrelevant. Horses of similar class are generally grouped together by the ratings system , amongst other factors. |
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and never underestimate "THE VIBE".......so you never have to utter those dreaded words "F@$# I had the vibe on that"
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try and avoid the walk of shame it can be a long way to the nearest atm
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Spoon that is only a near truth for horses on their marks who are going nowhere
thats where your eyes and your stopwatch come into play....gauging ability/class for horses who are above the grade they are racing in.....thing is it takes time and effort (or good information!) taking shortcuts is the road to ruin with so many endeavors...................................................IMO |
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just follow Jim, he tries to skin a cat with a potato peeler.....one day he will realise he needs a ****g Knife
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Start with a blank canvas then carefully consider what you put on it
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near truth for horses on their marks who are going nowhere In essence I agree...,,,.but .
Speaking very generally ( and ideal distances aside) I reckon racehorses are placed ( as well as graded) within their competitive scope, more often than not. |
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Start with a blank canvas then carefully consider what you put on it
Thought you might be offer a few more specifics than that, Spy.  |
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makes me think of Jackson Pollack he sure didn't carefully consider what he put on the canvas but he had a very considered technique
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spooooooonman.....thing is I only have a handful of bets a week, if that.....not trying to pick every winner
if they are too even I look on........but when you see a jewel in the turd pile it's time to pin the ears back adhere to the old adage "tis better to go 10 e/w in one race than 1 e/w in every race" bet less, bet bigger.......................................................................................IMO |
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Blue Poles is a masterpiece.....hope to see it when I'm in Canberra soon
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why am I here dribbling **** anyway?......have four more races to price for tomorrow
rule 801 of punting.....never get sidetracked in the Betfair forum! waste of mental energy and you know what they say you become when you argue with idiots  |
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Knowing the tempo your half way there, harder than it sounds but. Weight of course is the ultimate, it is handicapping of course. Amazing such a big animal that wins easily with 54 kgs and then gets a few extra kgs penalty starts to slow. Even the W.F.A scale over 100 years old has stood the test of time ( incredble), except a little advantage with mares because of the abuse of Steroids over the last 10 years, new regulations should bring them back to the field as from this year. One of Melbourne's ex leading trainers may agree with that one on present results. Different tracks. Example 1600 Sandown is a very different 1600 Caulfield or Flemington. 1400 Flemington different to 1400 Caulfield. so on so on. Champions will win on any track at most distances but most are not champions and have likings to distance and track conditions which suit them. Majority have only a 600 metre sprint and a good jockey will reserve as much energy on the mount as possible when the big moment counts, this is where the barrier is handy for the bias on the day. You could go on and go on and go on but restricting yourself to a couple of bets each meeting and your got a better chance. In my opinion sprint races are much easier than say Mile plus because they generally go pretty hard most times unless its huge fields. Saying all that poor old Monday Mike has not backed a winner in 3 weeks so presently this writing is as good as something on a toilet wall.
. Good Punting. |
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Enough with the jibber jabber, Mike.
THE STAKING METHOD is what we're all after  Do tell......BTW Good to see your dribblin dial on here  |
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that blank "spreadsheet" judge
 ........ just leave it all to the maths imo. also with staking of course, for eg. punting 1% of your bank is crazy if your not going to have a sequence of winners, at some stage, which return 100 hundred units of profit (and thereby double your bank and leaving scope for profit takeout and re-banking etc. etc.). You must frame a bank and your percentage bet from a certainly known maximum run of outs. I think both judgey and myself can recount going well over 20 losers in a row....... but i'll bet we both knew from the maths, it wouldn't exceed 30 for eg. |
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........ and right now.......... it's time to start using the database to chuck a whole heap of stats into that spreadsheet, which is sorted into categories of CLASS and DISTANCE....... and begin to calculate the odds for cowfield
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I think both judgey and myself can recount going well over 20 losers in a row....... but i'll bet we both knew from the maths, it wouldn't exceed 30 for eg.
I got awfully close to it though 1% way to conservative imo |
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Don't worry about the bloody staking method Spoonhead, where 583% up, as the record clearly shows. Still its a nice button to press when the need arises.
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when i've previously asked the question the answer came back at 2.5% of your bank - or 40 bets - obviously depends on your approach and strike rate though
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seems about right womble imo ... mate the conjecture is usually somewhere between 2% and 5% (and some higher or lower again)
but i reckon it has less to do with selections and more to do with the pyschology of gambling and the pyschology of the individual for example (and only example lol) ... you might have a $1000 bank and bet $50 per selection (just an example) = 5% of your bank you might lose 20 in a row (and a nervous wreck maybe with the final 3 selections that wipe you out) so you throw in another $1000 and do the same ... this time not blowing the bank so your bank of $1000 was really $2000 .. (in which case you were betting 2½% and not 5% if you get my drift) now ... how much is someone prepared to throw in to cover a blown bank ... 1 more time .. 2 more times ? because what you are prepared to throw in .. is really YOUR bank ... not what you might be holding in an a/c like BF in the end .. the way you handle a 20 run loss (ie your psychology) and how you approach the 21st bet is a pretty big ingredient having said that ... if you have a $1000 and a $1000 ONLY .. betting 5% or even 3% might be a push on the old cranium if things come unstuck phew ... anyway ... if you got a grand ... and are prepared to throw in a grand 2 more times if things go wrong then ... you actually have a $3k bank (but just not sitting in one betting a/c) and if you then bet $50 a pop you will have a backup run of 60 in the kitty ... which means you are actually betting 1.66% of your REAL bank just imo lol ... keep the brain in check .. and the selections solid and all could be ok |
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Oh, Mr. Holmes, I would love to tell you, but then, of course, I'd have to kill you.
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you blokes dead set crack me up !
staking plans are rubbish.! when you have a GOOD THING......UNLOAD.! otherwise, just bet carefully each way, depending on your confidence........ It is FKG easy. Now all GFKD. |
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That's only because you can't work out a % of your bank ffs
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words of wisdom from the elder statesman of the forum - mind you unloading and getting it wrong means no bank
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