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Because nick, lets say you bet the smart punter a reasonable amount at say 2.00, how do you use that to your advantage when it firms into 1.90 elsewhere? Its ok if he bets with you 1st.
The on course bookie must bet to lose a certain amount, what do the so called super pros do? They manipulate the market to where they're getting under 100%, hence on course bookies are a dying breed. Many years ago the smart bookies outweighed the smart punters, but the pendulum has well and truly swung the other way now. |
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spy,
If we all took that attitude so many things that have changed as a result of public opinion would have remained the way they were. To accept defeat in the face of enormous odds is an English mentality. The point is that we know we are up against it and it is unlikely to change, but to do nothing and take it is worse. In their shoes I would be likely to employ similar tactics, but in the case of Sportsbet (and Bet365 fits into the same category) they reduce it to the ridiculous. They are not allowed to close my account (I don't know the laws but I am catching up - maybe they are), but they are allowed to render it for all intents and purposes unusable. Something just doesn't fit here. Tell me straight out you don't want my business and close my account, by all means. Just be up front about it. |
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I see what you're saying Mr Snake, but i don't like exercises in futility and thats what i feel it is. Also the the amount of time, effort and thought you're putting into it could be detrimental to your main pursuit which is backing a winner
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fcked if i would let anybody on for something just seconds before the jump
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Mr spy,
Whilst backing a winner is my primary goal, it's going to be pretty difficult to do that without any bookmakers willing to take my bet. That is where I feel we're heading. Many of the Betfair markets are too thin for me to get set and the commission on some wagers makes it impossible to do better than the good old bookie. Plus, much of the time the Betfair price is unders because the markets are thin and the prices move on rumour, much like a stockmarket. I have to try and defend my livelihood. That is all I am doing. |
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I hope you succeed, i just think you're pushing the proverbial uphill. Maybe you're too good for your own good as i hear there are quite a few successful sports bettors that do get on for large amounts
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Where are they getting on? Do tell...
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That i'm not sure of i'm sorry
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"To accept defeat in the face of enormous odds is an English mentality"..I was kind of with you until that, but you`ve pi$$ed me off.
Some facts. You mention public opinion...the vast majority of the public dont give a rats a$$ about a handful of people who cant get on at a bookies. Whether its right or wrong, how many people are actually affected by what bookies do. You are clued up, purely by being on here shows that, as are most who come on here, and how many people are signing up to this crusade. Its miniscule compared to the number of people who dont get cut by bookies. Bookies arent a charity and raison d`etre is to win money, and you expect them to say, ok we win off customer a, but customer b takes our pants down, but lets keep them both going. With the plethora of sports and markets, and the amount of information available for the clued up guys who specialize, its not difficult to get an edge, sometimes a big edge. Its simpler to identify these people and cut them, than to pay for specialists in every sport. In the old days it was very different. The amount of bets that fly in - remember online bookies have the world as their shop not just Australia - mean that the guys watching the bets cant possibly keep up with whats happening everywhere, and with hundreds of bets piling in on all the leagues, sports and markets, its simpler to cut the sharp punters rather than be proactive or even reactive. The model is successful, look at the figures, and the tax they will provide for Govts means the Govts are highly unlikely to do anything about it, and anyway, when have Govts worried about what happens to a few people when theres a decent income stream to milk. The bottom line is, a bet is an agreement between two parties, why should one party be able to force the other party to do something they dont want to do, and this is the one thing you will struggle to beat. Whether its fair or not, whether some people get treated better than others, or some get on what they want and others can bet to win only $5. What law can be drafted to force a bookie to take a bet it doesnt want to take. Even if they could would the Govt have to start setting levels for each sport or each market for each sport, its inconceivable. There, these are some of the arguments that you have to counter, and that we have encountered for years, and I`m sorry to have to play devils advocate. The system has evolved to what it is in Europe and it is what it is. Good luck in your quest, threads like this dont occur on here very often now in the forum, they used to. I will follow what happens with interest. By the way, what about English (British) mentality in the Second World War.... |
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Pounf
Bookmaking has been a joke in England for decades at least and probably longer. You only have to read Bill Waterhouse's book where he recounts what happened with English bookies when he was betting on English racecourses decades ago. The markets were false then and have obviously been ever since Just because the markets over in England are a joke does not mean it has to happen elsewhere The fact is that English racing is a joke fullstop. Coolmore and Darley and one or two others control all the good horses and and the result is terrible G1 racing with 1 or 2 decent horses per G1 race in most cases. English racing is hopeless and part of the reason is the poor prizemoney. And this poor prizemoney is the result of the bookies over there manipulating markets for decades and not paying their fair share to racing The world works better with people sharing rather than being greedy. Your longwinded post is simply advocating greed and in the end greed is bad despite what others might tell you |
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King Mug,
Beautifully put. Nothing more to add. |
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It isnt advocating greed, its telling it as it is. Greed is bad, but everybody is out for a buck for themselves, definitely bookies, but including punters, including yourself, including myself.
Greed is at the heart of all the social problems we have now, where the few do very well thank you, and the many do not. We have a Government here where the well off are getting tax breaks, whilst the health service for everybody is being dismantled. Nearly everybody is greedy, from the guy ruunning a corner shop to the local garage where they would charge you for opening the bonnet of your car. When this nirvana comes about when everything is fair, let me know and I`ll apply to emigrate to it. By the way, I dont bet horses, too many people in the know tucking you up for me. |
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This nirvana you're talking about...Gordon Gecko moved there. That's where he disappeared to
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And for the record, that crack at the English mentality was not directed at you. It was simply a little shot at the guys from the English forum who come here to ride the Aussies about this and that. Anyway, was tongue in cheek for what it's worth.
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thye bet early on sandown tronight ...got gutted.
gomes 5.5 into 3.3,bubba's dream 3.1 into 1.85 and roy trease 3.6 into 1.85 amongst others |
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OK snake fair play with the crack. Dont mind a bit of banter, God knows Ive dished my fair share out !!
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this is how i feel it is Pounf..........In Australia we can change gambling legislation, with popular opinion and enough shouting, and more than often the State Government will change in favour of better deals and protection for the punter, simply because of the adverse publicity that can surround the gambling industry and how the media can be worked into a fenzy regarding "problem gambling". Gambling is a very sensitive issue in this country, elections and polli's are elected on the back of gambling issue's. So if enough noise is made about the greed and the unfair behaviour of the bookies something will be done.
There is one simple solution for the NT State government to do.....and that is to put in place minimum bet limits for the corp's.......... I just want to know where i stand when i open an account with them. Also by setting minimum bet limits they also eliminate the complains of accounts being closed in regard to winners. Now what those limits are will be the million$ question, so let me shock u at what was on the table some time ago before the NT gov for minimum bets (i will stand to be corrected) Greyhounds and Trots fixed odds: to win $200 Horse Racing fixed odds; to win 500-800 Sportsbetting fixed odds; to win 800-1000 So if this was stated in their rules and regulations when you sign on, that would also mean that no accounts could be closed without breaking some other code of conduct rule, and everyone would know what to expect. I feel this is where the talking must start with the Gambling Authorities and Regulators. Afterall Australia are the heaviest gamblers in the world, we turnover more that 100billion on pokies, and 30 billion on racing then put on that casino's, lotto,bingo and what ever. So this industry needs to be fair, it must show a clean and favourable personna and the governments have no qualms what soever of introducing legislation in favour of the punter. One Simple cry; WHEN I SIGN ON AS A CLIENT, I WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE MINIMUM BET THE BOOKMAKER IS REQUIRED TO ACCEPT. i think it makes sense |
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I think I mentioned somewhere I had hired a couple of computer geeks to help streamline my business. Anyway, check this one out:
One of them is doing some data scrapes for me and scraped the Unibet website for NRL head to head prices for this week. The prices were as follows: 1.72 Newcastle Cronulla 2.00 1.27 Canterbury Broncos 3.40 2.10 Penrith Canberra 1.65 1.35 Cowboys Warriors 2.95 1.55 Wests St George 2.30 2.00 Parra Roosters 1.72 1.32 Storm Titans 3.10 1.80 Souths Manly 1.90 Then I went to unibet.com.au because I wanted to make sure I was getting the right numbers. Look what I discovered! 1.78 Newcastle Cronulla 2.06 1.32 Canterbury Broncos 3.45 2.10 Penrith Canberra 1.75 1.36 Cowboys Warriors 3.20 1.58 Wests St George 2.41 2.06 Parra Roosters 1.78 1.36 Storm Titans 3.20 1.87 Souths Manly 1.95 If this isn't evidence that the Poms are getting stitched then nothing is. Once they eliminate the competition that is out future, folks! |
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i dont understand, why was there a difference?
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Haha, why are you asking me!
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Ok, so the unibet xml feed gave the first set, but that was off unibet.com. the second set of numbers was off unibet.com.au
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i think your scrapper had a melt down
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oh i see....got ya, well just goes to show what a competitive market the australians have, and thats what we want to keep
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Nah, mate, there are two sets of numbers, one set for the poms and euro trash and another for us. Why? Because we have healthy competition here and better prices. The Poms just get the dregs.
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crazy they even have draws quote in their line and head to head markets ..........the UK bookies are thiefs
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Dude, we are in big trouble if they get a proper foothold. Neither of us will make a cent.
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That's pretty much why I launched this campaign now. If we don't do something soon it will be too late.
If Eskander and a couple of others sell out there'll be nobody left. |
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You should see some of the Euro books, they make Ned Kelly look like Mother Theresa...
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The bottom line is, a bet is an agreement between two parties, why should one party be able to force the other party to do something they dont want to do, and this is the one thing you will struggle to beat. Whether its fair or not, whether some people get treated better than others, or some get on what they want and others can bet to win only $5. What law can be drafted to force a bookie to take a bet it doesnt want to take. Even if they could would the Govt have to start setting levels for each sport or each market for each sport, its inconceivable.
How is it forcing anybody to do anything they don't want to do? The bookies in all senses are salesmen, selling bets. Their odds, are the prices they are offering to sell at. The customer isn't trying to force them to sell at a price they haven't already offered. They just want the chance to buy it at the current offer. Just like the online books have to do. They offer a price, knowing what their potential liability will be if people take that price, and are forced to sell, at a price both are happy with. Nobody is forcing these corps to bet on every sport in the world. And I hardly think that degenerate gamblers are that bad they want to bet on Syberian soccer leagues just for the hell of it. Personally, if I was to start a corp, I would run it with **** market %, and sit it off BF prices. How hard is it really? Bet to a minimum of 1k for race markets, 2k for metro markets. Then keep an eye on the markets. Seriously how hard is it? Never ban anybody. Quite easy for me to sit here and pick off Sportingbet arbs, but they can't keep my account open because they simply get a feed of on course prices and don't monitor the markets? What kind of bookmaker does that? That isn't bookmaking, that is a funnel for money to go into, because they can simply ban the people that can monitor the markets. The simple fact is this. There is not going to be an influx of money on any runner at one time, unless they have the price wrong. Not to mention that you can quite easily program your odds to drop if you have taken money on a runner, to the point where even milliseconds the bet on all following will get the message, price has dropped, do you want to continue. That is automated, that isn't dropping peoples liabilities and then keeping the same price, or rejecting them and winding the odds out, that is a bookmaker system, that lets everybody on, for the same liability, with a book % reflective of the current odds, and current exposure. You don't need to bet on Syberian soccer, just do the races. Then expand to something else. I know there is a company out there doing (or I think they are from what I have heard?) something very similar. All they do is cricket betting, and they actively monitor the markets, and change the markets based on what is happening. They are specialist market makers (in the sense that they are running a book based on current events), and they aim to let everybody on (whether they do or not, not sure). The reason these corps are barring people, is more to do with a ridiculous overexposure of markets, so much so they cannot possibly have an opinion on the odds they are offering on a huge proportion of them. In fact, I think it would be fair to suggest that most of the corps could not even tell you how most of the markets were framed. |
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Correct, so they are in fact not bookmakers & shouldn't pass themselves off as such.
I think all anyone wants is to not waste time, so if you advertise yourself as a bookmaker then take the bet FFS. |
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RVL and others are the ones that need to approve these companies to bet on their racing. They should be the ones that need to enforce a minumum bet imo.
Not sure about sports though. |
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BJT - Not a proper comparison in my opinion. The more a salesman sells the more profit they make as its inbuilt into the price they sell at, there is no downside. The more a bookmaker sells on a selection the higher the potential loss. Plenty of bookies have gone belly up by "selling" too many winners.
It is very frustrating trying to get on sometimes, and I wish it were different. |
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Depends on the situation really. If they can get 10 times more activity by giving rebates, and still make money, they make more money. But them making money on 1 transaction does not mean you lose money.
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Sorry wrong thread, ......
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Opened up a 365 account a month or so ago. They have now closed the account on the basis that it was 'uneconomical'. I had 33 bets, each and every single one of them was a loser. I'd hate to see what would happen if you backed a winner.
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I just have to wonder what their criteria are for closing down accounts and keeping others open. What are you not telling us, bluey?
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Yes more info needed, were you backing firmers, were your bets small, in the hundreds or in the thousands?
They won't accomodate those backing firmers, or large bets even if you're losing, the potential liability is too great. |
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newbluey, surely u arent telling us something............finding it hard to beleive u had 33 losing bets in a row with them and they closed u down.............were u arbing?.........where they horse,dogs,trots or sports bets?
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Maybe hes using the martingale staking system, so they had no choice but to close him down as they wouldn't have been able to settle had the next one got up
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It wouldnt matter what staking he was using. 33 consecutive losers would indicate a perennial loser to me.
Anyway, whatever the case, we know something is hidden in the reeds. No way that's the whole story. |