angeleyz

when i first started laying horses, there were a lot of websites around that would provide information on different approaches to laying. one thing i can remember from one website in particular was their views on laying horses ridden by ap mccoy. at that time their view was that the horse would generally go off much shorter than it really should, simply because he was riding it. i'm not sure if that theory still applies, but i have seen occasions where that is the only explaination i could think of.

originally i thought today might be a good example of this. in the 2.20 warwick, ap rides time to think for seamus mullins and when looking at the odds last night, he was put in around 9/4 fav. my initial impression was that i didn't think the horse has really done enough to be that low in the betting, and so i layed a little at around 5/2.

in my opinion, time to think's career best effort actually came in defeat, when finishing second to overnight fame back in 2012. he has since gone on to win a couple of chases at fontwell and chepstow, though i'm not sure they took a great deal of winning. what was more interesting was his run last time out where he finished 3rd to wychwoods brook at lingfield. by my calculations, that run was not far short of his best effort but as he finished 17 lengths off the winner, it leaves me with the feeling that his handicap mark is too high. in laying him today, i would be prepared to lay up to 3/1 max. any higher and i will again let it go but having just checked again i see he is around 3.85 at the moment.

of course i need something that can beat him and there are a couple here who could certainly give the favourite a run for his money. mr muddle would have a great chance if he could repeat the form of his win at plumpton back in march. i thought he showed real determination that day to get the better of petit ecuyer by half a length. he is inclined to make the odd mistake but he is still relatively young and inexperienced but if he puts in a clear round here then he should go very close.

have you seen me has been slightly disappointing in his last two runs, though i would have to say they came in much stronger races than this one. he tends to cut out the running and if he was to put in a similar effort as when 2nd to denali highway last march over course and distance, then he too would have a real shout in this.

i would be surprised if brody bleu or saints and sinners were good enough at these weights but gentle bob would go close on the best of his form, though he does have to overcome a 686 day lay off.



best of luck to anyone having a bet

well what a day i chose to put up 'taking on the gambling yards'. there i was wondering if i was doing the right thing laying compton from stuart williams yard, whilst in the background it seems one of the biggest betting coup's in years has been landed. my own view of this is that whilst some see it bad for the sport, i have to hold my hands up and say fair play to those involved. i should imagine that  this has been a well executed plan that i'm sure has been underway for quite sometime. it's interesting that all connections of the horses involved seem to be denying any knowledge of the coup and so far, legendary punter and former trainer barney curley who this appears to revolve around, has declined to comment.

as for my own race, well having watched the replay again, i do think that smokethatthunders may well have won in a few more strides, but it just wasn't to be. kickingthelily missed the break and was always struggling to get involved and having come wide into the straight, lost any chance of recovery, though in the end although finishing last, wasn't really beaten that far. compton did not have the best of runs but i think once in the clear had every chance if he was good enough and thankfully for me, today he wasn't.

on to tomorrow and i would be quite keen on laying one at warwick, but a lot depends on the weather overnight, so will update in the morning.

it's no secret that the stuart williams yard have landed some right touches over the years and when talking with other layers about gambling stables, i got the impression many of them were always very cautious about laying them as favourites. personally, if i can find enough reasons to lay a horse, i dont really care who trains them.

the 3.35 at lingfield sees the stuart williams trained compton installed this evening at around 13/8 favourite. the yard appear in good form at the moment and have a decent strike rate at the track and as compton appeared to win quite cosily last time out when beating intomist by just over 2 lengths over course and distance, then i can see why he is likely to attract support.

although compton may still be well handicapped on old form, i do think there are enough reasons to take him on at his current odds. to be honest i wasn't surprised by his victory last time out. officially, he was the best horse in that race, running off a mark of 75. it was undoubtedly his best performance on an all weather surface, but to put that into perspective, according to my own calculations, it was a performance that was only 2-3 pounds better than when he finished 7th behind da quonde at nottingham back in october.

here he has a 6lb penalty to overcome which may not be a problem in itself, but the opposition is much stronger here and my feeling is that if a few of these turn up somewhere near their best, then compton has to improve again to win here.

smokethatthunders is a very interesting runner for me, mainly because i layed him last time out where once again he looked a bit one paced. he was well backed that day too into 7/4 where he eventually finished 5th behind valmina. james toller's 4-year-old is a much more attractive betting proposition here though as he is stepped up to 7f which i think looks sure to suit and 10/1 looks pretty good value.

Kickingthelily would have a major chance if she is fit and ready after a lay off. her last win came at this track over a mile, when beating loyalty by a neck off a 2 pound higher mark. that was possibly a slightly better race than this and at around 12/1, is overpriced on the best of her form.

It would also be foolish to rule out the great gabrial who makes his 3rd start for alan mccabe. he turned in a decent performance on his final outing for ian williams when beating leonard thomas by just under 2 lengths. although he has finished 4th on both outings since, he has slightly ruined his chances by pulling too hard early on so if he was to settle a bit better then he would also be thereabouts.

so i think compton is worth taking on. obviously if he was to run anywhere near his old form where he won at ascot off a mark of 90, then i will almost certainly have a queue forming at the payouts. but i think it is worth taking a chance that he is no longer capable of reaching that kind of standard. i think i would be prepared to lay up to a price of around 9/4 max. any higher than that and let it go, but at the moment it looks like he will go off much shorter.


best of luck to anyone having a bet.

well at odds of around 7/2, i would be prepared to take a chance that it is not. now 14 years young, jim old's runner will probably go to post as favourite for this amateur and conditional riders event over 2m4f. the positives for this one are that on old form he is well handicapped, now back on the same mark as his last win which came at folkestone back in 2012. he also has shown a liking for this track in the past and one of his five victories under rules came here back in 2007. the only other real positive is that he did show a glimmer of his former self last time out over course and distance when finishing second to carli king. however, it was only a glimmer as carli king won that very decisively and half the field failed to complete that day.

as slight an improvement as that was for thedreamstillalive, i don't think that is good enough to win even as poor a contest as this. the one i am definitely going to be on is the top weight double chocolate. the form he showed when 2nd to kind of easy at fontwell back in october is almost certainly good enough to win here. although he has been slightly disappointing since, i think there have been valid excuses for a couple of those efforts, and today in a first time visor, he stands out to me.

fitandproperjob would not be without a chance as he ran possibly his best race over fences when 5th to free world last time out. this certainly looks easier and therefore if he can repeat that effort, he should be thereabouts.

the only other one worth a mention is killgeney. her early career form in nhf races and hurdles wasn't too bad and she did turn in her best effort in a long time when falling at the last in a race won by tony dinozzo at fakenham. she looked booked for second that day, but with a clear round here, she could at least grab some place money.


best of luck to anyone having a bet today

i dont know if anybody else makes notes on horses performances, but that is something i always like to do, especially if something catches my eye. well today although my lay of twice lucky was successful, it also left me with a slight feeling of disappointment. the eventual winner of the race, oh right, was a horse who went into my notebook when finishing 4th to prince blackthorn at sedgefield back in december. my feeling that day was that he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggested. he appeared to quicken up between the 4th last and 2 out until tiring slightly and being overhauled by  a few of his rivals that day. i got the distinct impression that this was a horse that was getting on the right side of the handicapper and could win again sooner rather than later if given similar conditions.

today i overlooked his chances based on his effort last time out, though i really should not have dismissed him so quickly as that came in class 4 handicap hurdle over 3m2f on ground that was too soft for him.

so in the end i managed to lay twice lucky to win £450 but i did have £100 on quinder spring who i must say i thought was once again disappointing as i thought conditions were just about perfect for him but he never got into the race.

well i am away for the weekend, taking a long awaited break for a couple of days. to anybody reading, see you in the lay comp monday. be lucky.

with no overnight rain, the 1.15 musselburgh becomes my main focus of attention. twice lucky has been installed as favourite and is currently around the 7/4 mark.now here is a horse who has won just one chase from 20 attempts and from the 19 defeats, four have come when sent off favourite. the race he did win was a four runner event at kelso back in 2012 and two of his opponents that day struggled from the off. my impression is that he is a very difficult horse to win with and needs everything to fall just right. this may be down to the fact that he just doesn't have any gears and is very one paced. i think he may be best suited by heavy ground and a good gallop where those in front of him will stop towards the end of a race, allowing him to go past at one pace.

of course it could be that one of the reasons he is favourite here, is that todays opposition hardly come here in sparkling form. but there are a few who if they bounce back to somewhere near there best, will have twice lucky in trouble. personally i am quite keen on the chances of quinder spring who at the moment is around 20/1 on here. if he could repeat the performance of his run at newcastle where he finished second to my friend george, he would have a big chance here. he had tutchec 4 lengths behind in 3rd that day and he is now officially rated 123.

silver steel would have a fair chance at his best, and when last seen, travelled from his lancashire base to fontwell where he was well fancied with ap riding. unfortunately i think something went amiss there as he had travelled well before making a mistake and weakening quickly and was eventually pulled up. if he was back to his best he should certainly be thereabouts.

call me mulligan could also get involved here if at his best, though i got the impression he would have liked softer ground.



best of luck to anyone having a bet in this race

they say that no matter how well you plan something, you should always expect the unexpected. but when things do go to plan, there is no better feeling especially when it comes to horse racing. today was certainly one of those days when everything just fell into place. having watched the first few races at ludlow, my confidence about my lay and indeed the chances of lord of house increased no end. to my surprise, and a pleasant one at that, the odds on rio de sivola shrank when tour d'argent was announced as a non runner. i must say i had not really considered that one as a danger to the market leaders so i was very surprised to see rio de sivola's odds fall from around 2/1 to 13/8. in fact that support continued eventually going off at 6/4.

i managed to lay to my maximum and having had a maximum win bet on lord of house, i sat back to watch the race. lord of house made one or two errors along the way but i didn't see anything bad enough to suggest he should be hitting odds of 75 on here. as i dont bet in play, i must confess i did not take advantage of those odds, but if i did then i would certainly have been on. reason being, lord of house looks a real battler. in fact those are the types of horses i love to have on my side when betting, and indeed i just love watching them in general. i'm too young to remember some of the old greats who always gave their all, but even watching videos of some of those races, makes your hair stand up on end sometimes.

It's days like today that you have to remember because they will help you to overcome the bad occasions when you get it completely wrong. some people seemed to suggest that lord of house should have been thrown out for interference. i think that would have been extremely harsh and to those people who suggested that i think maybe they should try running for 2 miles on heavy ground and at the end of it keep a straight line. did the interference affect the outcome. i dont think so, not if you understand that this horse is very game and i think if those people were really honest, then i don't think they could say for certain that sir valentino would have won.

one race that i am interested in tomorrow is the first at musselburgh, but it all depends on what happens overnight with the weather which will determine whether i get involved in it. as things stand i would be looking to take on the favourite twice lucky who i see on oddschecker is currently around 7/4 favourite. what i wouldn't want to see is too much rain arrive as that would be in his favour, but at the moment the ground is described as good to soft and personally i would like it to stay that way.

occasionally i see opportunities where i am confident enough to aim for my maximum amount. the 3.10 ludlow has the potential to be just one of those times. the nick williams trained rio de sivola has been put by most odds compilers at 2/1 favourite for this 2m novice handicap chase. he is lightly raced and therefore likely to improve at some point. as to whether that would be tomorrow, i would have severe reservations. he made all the running to win a small race at warwick on his penultimate start which came on good to soft.

he then attempted to repeat those tactics last time out at ascot on soft ground where in my opinion, his jumping slightly fell to bits in finishing second to bellenos and my immediate impression was that he would be the type to take on given a similar surface. the current forecast for ludlow tomorrow is that he ground will be heavy and with overnight rain a distinct possibility, surely the ground cannot dry out that much.

my plan for this race is to lay rio de sivola at 2/1. i have matched very small amounts at the moment and i will continue to monitor the market. under any circumstances will i be laying above 3.5 so hopefully he doesn't drift too much.

i do think that if lord of house puts in a clear round of jumping, this race is his for the taking and his current odds of 7/2 or higher if you can get it, look pretty good value to me. having beaten last shot by just over 4 lengths at wincanton on his penultimate start, i think he improved significantly last time out when second to tresor de bontee at uttoxeter, where he battled all the way to the line. although he is capable of making the running as at uttoxeter, he has shown in the past that he doesn't necessarily have too, and indeed has performed very well when sitting just behind the leader.

if for some reason lord of house under performs then it still may not be straightforward for rio de sivola as zarzal has pieces of form which would be good enough to finish in front of the favourite. of course the question with zarzal is will he be able to show his best on this ground. i would have to say that his form on heavy ground compares very similarly to that shown by the favourite and therefore i came to the conclusion that maybe rio de sivola is underpriced.


i will finish off by saying that of course this analysis is based on the ground being heavy and all runners going to post. should there be any changes then i will reconsider my position regarding the race.



very best of luck to anyone having a bet in this race.

how strange that as soon as i start a blog it seems i hit one of the stickiest patches i can remember. the day started well enough with fleetwoodsands finishing well beaten in the last at lingfield. the race was made even more enjoyable as charlotte jenner gave reginald claude a perfect ride to come home at 8/1. having managed to get just over £200 on the winner, my total profit for the race more than recouped any losses from yesterday.

however my joy was short lived as my second lay, norfolk sky waltzed in at kempton. it was very frustrating, given the fact that i really couldnt see any pace in the race which by my thinking should have been against the winner. unfortunately i kind of knew my fate at halfway when pat millman suddenly had a brainstorm aboard icebuster who admittedly had pulled very hard early on. he appeared to quicken the tempo rather alarmingly and in no time at all had suddenly shot about six lengths clear. as first warning had led early on at a modest pace, this pretty much handed the race on a plate to the eventual winner.

the only positive thing i can take from the race was the fact that i did not chase the odds, something which i know i keep banging on about, but if you stick to this strategy, you will find over a period of time that it really does work. having layed to win £150 at 11/4, i planned to lay again at 5/2 and 9/4, however having layed at 11/4 norfolk sky just drifted and drifted and so i was unable to lay again. so in some ways i escaped by only having to pay out just over £400.

On a positive note, i am really looking forward to tomorrow.

at the moment it looks as though the last race at lingfield may not go ahead due to the earlier delay, so i will put up my second lay of the day which comes in the 5.55 at kempton. norfolk sky, was put in around 5/2 favourite for this 2m contest and on her penultimate start, she ran very well over course and distance beating eshtyaaq by just over 3 lengths. however, next time out at lingfield, having been raised 6 pounds and upped in class i think she was found wanting, and seemed to fold quite quickly inside the final furlong when 4th to clerks choice. she also looks the type who needs a decent gallop and i doubt she is going to get that here unless she makes the running herself.

at these weights i would prefer to take a chance on first warning who looks the least unexposed. making his first start here for tim pitt, the form of his maiden win doesn't look too bad as the third that day mahdiyah has since hacked up at wolverhampton. if first warning appreciates this step up in trip then he may be a bit better than his current mark of 78.

i would not rule out icebuster either who probably doesn't win as often as he should and is still without a win on the all weather.unfortunately he doesn't get much respite from the handicapper as he is reasonably consistent.

you could even make a case for layline if he could run to the level of his win at wolverhampton back in november, though i think victory for him would be the biggest surprise of the three i have mentioned, whilst honourable knight looks too high in the weights at present.