angeleyz

occasionally i see opportunities where i am confident enough to aim for my maximum amount. the 3.10 ludlow has the potential to be just one of those times. the nick williams trained rio de sivola has been put by most odds compilers at 2/1 favourite for this 2m novice handicap chase. he is lightly raced and therefore likely to improve at some point. as to whether that would be tomorrow, i would have severe reservations. he made all the running to win a small race at warwick on his penultimate start which came on good to soft.

he then attempted to repeat those tactics last time out at ascot on soft ground where in my opinion, his jumping slightly fell to bits in finishing second to bellenos and my immediate impression was that he would be the type to take on given a similar surface. the current forecast for ludlow tomorrow is that he ground will be heavy and with overnight rain a distinct possibility, surely the ground cannot dry out that much.

my plan for this race is to lay rio de sivola at 2/1. i have matched very small amounts at the moment and i will continue to monitor the market. under any circumstances will i be laying above 3.5 so hopefully he doesn't drift too much.

i do think that if lord of house puts in a clear round of jumping, this race is his for the taking and his current odds of 7/2 or higher if you can get it, look pretty good value to me. having beaten last shot by just over 4 lengths at wincanton on his penultimate start, i think he improved significantly last time out when second to tresor de bontee at uttoxeter, where he battled all the way to the line. although he is capable of making the running as at uttoxeter, he has shown in the past that he doesn't necessarily have too, and indeed has performed very well when sitting just behind the leader.

if for some reason lord of house under performs then it still may not be straightforward for rio de sivola as zarzal has pieces of form which would be good enough to finish in front of the favourite. of course the question with zarzal is will he be able to show his best on this ground. i would have to say that his form on heavy ground compares very similarly to that shown by the favourite and therefore i came to the conclusion that maybe rio de sivola is underpriced.


i will finish off by saying that of course this analysis is based on the ground being heavy and all runners going to post. should there be any changes then i will reconsider my position regarding the race.



very best of luck to anyone having a bet in this race.