HELLO, good evening & welcome to my blog. I hope it reaches you well. I’m currently paper-trading a fantastic new system which I’ll duly share with you all when I have enough consistent results to share. I will also, of course, hand you all some more darts advice soon. For the time being, here’s the latest instalment in my A-Z of Better Punting.
F is for Form
Ignore form at your peril. Form can be split broadly into three categories. Good form (i.e. someone’s on a winning streak), bad form (losing streak) and indifferent form (inconsistent, therefore difficult to judge what they’re going to do next). Lots of bets have been lost backing the odds-on favourite just because, for example, a team’s league position is way superior to their opponent’s. Scratch the surface and you may have found that the odds-on favourite lost its last couple of games, while the outsider had won its last two. The phrase ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’ is a truism, however, class counts for nothing if, for whatever reason, things aren’t going quite right. It’s at moments like these that the better punter pounces – and wins.
Similarly, if you start hearing stats such as ‘Dundee United haven’t done the double over Dundee for x number of years or ‘Portsmouth haven’t done the double over Southampton for x number of years’ consider just how many seasons they’ve actually been in the same division, ergo opening up the opportunity for such an event. Furthermore, consider how much relevance a match more than three years ago has on one today. Worked out the answer yet? Here’s some help – it’s ‘none’. What possible relevance can a result three years ago have one an upcoming fixture? Especially when both sides will have changed virtually beyond recognition in that period. All true form is temporary – and stretches back for weeks or months, rather than years.
F is also for Free Bets
At any given moment, 30 or more online bookmakers will be offering a free bet of some description as an incentive to sign up to their web service. These can vary from a parsimonious £5 all the way to £100. It’s free money whichever way you look at it, with the only hassle on your part being filling in the form and remembering your user name and password for future use. Always make sure you read the small print, as the first free bet will only be credited if your original bet exactly meets their terms and conditions – a stipulation that often occurs is that the original bet must be a single made in full on a wager that’s placed at evens or greater, while the condition of using the free bet will probably be the same. In other words, if the offer proclaims ‘£50 match bet’, then the likelihood is that you won’t be able to put on, say, five separate £10 bets and still get your free £50 – you’ll only receive a free bet to the value of £10 as that was your first bet.
The free £50 won’t be immediately withdrawable either; you’ll have to use it on a further bet or bets. This is not a problem, however, as even in the event of you losing your initial bet, you’ll get the value of the stake awarded to your account to use another time. Terms and conditions notwithstanding, it’s still a free bet, which isn’t to be sniffed at. Furthermore, you could always lay it off on Betfair – or partially lay it off, depending on your level of ambition/risk.
Look after yourselves & remember: Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth when it’s got teeth like a rhino
Good luck & happy punting!