Grand National
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Theres normally a useful well informed thread on this so any ideas gents ?
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At the moment the cut-off is 146 (10st 2lb), according to handicapper Martin Greenwood.
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Ah! Given withdrawals etc I was after which horse forumites think might be number 40 this year ...
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I think that would be difficult to predict for certain or with close accuracy nevertheless, I think at least 5 will be scratched given Elliot has quite a few above 40 and with the Irish National in mind; next confirmation day is 12pm 1st April.
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Its been a standard game at this time of year since the forum began and thanks for your starting contribution 123
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I'll go with 142 for the cut off point.
When the weights came out the handicapper said last year you had to be in mid seventies to make the cut. He thought anything in the top 80 had a chance of making it. So with 16 taken out no. 75 on racecard is now no.59. Of course he said that in February, don't know if he'd still go with that. |
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Eleven came out at the final stage last year, that would take you down to Captain Redbeard. Hope so he's one of mine.
There seems to be a massive Irish entry this year they must think their well-handicapped. With some choosing the Irish National instead must be a chance around eleven come out again this year. |
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looks like w mullins will run the 4 already inside the top 40, and any others who get in.
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Elliot guesstimates he'll have about 10 in each National, so that would be 6 out of top 50 at Aintree.
Imagine once a year punters who bet a Gigginstown entry. Why have they all got the same colours? Well there's a different cap. That will work for them. |
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If so with Elliot that is unsporting as I firmly believe no trainer must be allowed to run more than 3 for the same owner, or 3 in total to preserve equality and fairness to others; 3 is a sufficiently large number even for a big stable similarly, the same owner - to avoid race shenanigan eg Sub Lieutenant (Ryanair Chase). Only one horse can win, and 3 chances are sufficient for any entity.
6 out of the top 50 for Elliot would mean 3 above Vintage Clouds. Can anyone envisage Mullins running both Rathvinden and Pleasant Company against Tiger Roll here when the former is a strong fancy in the Irish version without Tiger Roll? The markets could be good indicators where some of Mullins' and Elliot's could be heading eventually. |
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Elliott did say he'd run some in both race.
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IMPOSSIBLE "UNsporting elliot" , why dont you give up continually having a go at anyone or anything Irish, you have been exposed as a racist on the cheltenham festival thread and you still continue to dig a massive hole for yourself.
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Hi this is Mully. Betfair stupidly deleted all my 15+ years of forum history but there you go. Despite my respect for Gordon Elliott, if he and Gigginstown start making mass entries year upon year, with some of them no more than "pacesetters" for others, then the future of the race may be on a downward spiral. We are now staring at the real prospect of Vintage Clouds (again!) and Walk In The Mill (Becher winner) not getting in- something is seriously not right with things if that becomes the case this year.
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Ah! 17 years just returned. Must have been that cookie monster playing havoc again
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If all 40 runners come from one stable , what needs attention is not the trainer , its the rule makers , they are light years behind because of their committee system. Highly praised for its democratic allegiance but very slow reacting , puts evolving before revolution and generally has to put off things "in the hope" or under the doctrine of "not sporting" . So who decides ? The players decide ........they are the tail wagging the dog, load of stewards or badges ties and blazers are useless when it comes to anticipating.
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Ultimately the rules will have to change yes.
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Abxolutely right
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But they wont change until the egos and the power realise they made mistakes , mistakes which they wont apologise for, because, they will say circumstances change. Failure to recognise that shortcoming is the one trait you can rely upon !
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if an owner or trainer has horses in the
h'cap who are illegible to run you can't stop 'em. Whether it's sporting or not is another matter. |
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Agree 100% with Mully. Unfortunately this is a by product of the Phil Smith tinkering with the weights. At least this year it looks like the bottom weight will actually carry 10 st or near it instead of a glorified limited handicap. One way to make it more difficult would be to stipulate participation in certain long distance handicaps before the weights are issued, a bit like the Pertemps hurdle qualifiers.
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one can tolerate, to a certain extent, multiple entries in Group races (as we often see on the flat or NH) as there are very, very few occasions when other horses are thereby deprived of a chance. But in major handicaps, under both codes, the rules cannot allow wealthy owners to monopolise the field with excessive entries as this tends to prevent less wealthy owners/trainers from landing a decent pot. It is in the interests of the sport as a whole that there be as wide a base of owners as otherwise the sport reverts to Georgian/Victorian times with a small group of "aristocratic" (in it's broadest sense) owners racing amongst themselves for (largely) money provided by the "peasants" (that's us punters!).
The problem has been exacerbated by the lamentable Phil Smith who would have tried to get Frankel in the national if he could. You now have a field with lots of horses whose rating is not reflective of any form shown in the past 12-18 months. Meanwhile younger horses with good recent form now find it impossible to get in. If Vieux Lion, Vintage Clouds and Walk in the Mill don't get in it may concentrate a few minds. To make matters worse, I have just read that Don Poli and Outlander are being offered for sale with guaranteed places. So the entry system can be used to get an inflated price for horses that would be lucky to attract decent bids without such an entry. |
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Regards Don Poli and Outlander: That's cheating, and unsporting as anyone who can afford either could have a runner depriving others further down the chance of running; horses are not a pieces of real estate...with planning permission. I do not think eligibility to run in a big prestigious/handicap race like the Grand National can be transferred from one owner to another just prior if the intention is solely to secure a run.
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Don Poli the first one I crossed off looking at the current 40 entrants.
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Horses with different merits currently not getting a run include
Irish Grand National winner Scottish Grand National 1st and 3rd Last years 3rd 5th , 8th , 9th and 12th Becher winner |
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hows it cheating?
they'd run in Gigingstown colours anyway. If I'm right Party Politics was sold before winning the race. Noone mentioned cheating then. |
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I agree with the sentiments regarding Vintage Clouds and Walk in the Mill but haven't any sympathy for Vieux Lion Rouge as it's had 3 attempts and hasnt got nearer than 27 lengths. David Pipe has already stated it doesnt appear to stay so why enter it.
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I think you find they wont run in the Gigginstown colours.
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yeh I know, they would if they weren't for sale.
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I think the point that was being made is why not wait until after the race. Of course not because O'Leary wants to use it to make himself even more which isn't the purpose og the G/N.
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^^^ is the point I was making
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besides which Penzance, I am not suggesting it is cheating. I am suggesting that if you allow an excessive number of horses to be entered by one owner, the chances of a fair and reasonable field are reduced. Not everything that is unfair is against the rules or cheating. It may just be wrong. Morally. Which the present situation is imho
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And no doubt come the day we will have 38 or 39 runners .
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why would he sell them after the race?
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Why before then?
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why do you think?
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Clearly they don't think they can win but selling with a G/N entry will inflate the price.
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perhaps nonoe will come in for them.
who knows.But if they do it will be a few quid. |
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There's always someone who wants the thrill of owning a G/N runner and will probably pay way over the odds.
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well they paid alot for Blaklion.
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Very true but he only had one horse entered I believe and not a job lot of which he disposed of a couple and still had 8 or so runners left.
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