How important are they? Year after year it's uncanny how the winner will generally hit the trends yet another stride or two and pleasant company would have debunked the 4+ prep run trend. As it stands that trend is still standing the test of time. There has been a switch in the trends to 8 year olds being much more competitive recently and it also seems the cross country races are are throwing in plenty of placed horses these days. On quicker ground the top weights can be competitive but seem to have no chance on softer ground. Class is also king and the likes of milansbar, royal knight, gooneyella and other plodders seem always destined for 5th, 6th placed finishes.
I should also add a few horses seem to be improving on their first national runs. Obviously Mon mome, but also saint are, cause of causes, monbeg dude, Balthazar King and yesterday pleasant company. I guess the answer is that the trends are important but they can change over time. As training techniques improve I wouldn't be surprised to see more and more horses competing with less than 4 prep runs which is bad news for us punters who like the trends.
I should also add a few horses seem to be improving on their first national runs. Obviously Mon mome, but also saint are, cause of causes, monbeg dude, Balthazar King and yesterday pleasant company. I guess the answer is that the trends are important