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I should also add a few horses seem to be improving on their first national runs. Obviously Mon mome, but also saint are, cause of causes, monbeg dude, Balthazar King and yesterday pleasant company. I guess the answer is that the trends are important but they can change over time. As training techniques improve I wouldn't be surprised to see more and more horses competing with less than 4 prep runs which is bad news for us punters who like the trends.
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