Grand National
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17 Mar 18
18:44
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 11
Now the dust has settled on the festival, my main two for the National are 25/1 Blaklion and 70.0 exch The Last Samuri
Hopefully, Blaklion will have recovered from Haydock when he came to a standstill after the last and with better going, may yet get home
Had Samuri in mind for a long time and ran with credit in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Backed off the boards there, augurs well for Liverpool with no smoke without fire
Hopefully, Blaklion will have recovered from Haydock when he came to a standstill after the last and with better going, may yet get home
Had Samuri in mind for a long time and ran with credit in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Backed off the boards there, augurs well for Liverpool with no smoke without fire
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I think it's very difficult for horses who have a near miss to then come back carrying more weight and win. After all if they couldn't win when they were relatively well in it doesn't seem likely they will when the handicapper reassesses them. Blaklion doesn't appear to get 4 1/2 miles anyway.
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the fellah has no clue bindaree
empty vessel most sound |
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blacklion doesnt appear to get 4.5 miles but with a more patient conervative ride he might i feel.depends what haydock too out of him.it didnt look good .
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I don't base my assessment of Blaklions staying on last seasons National. People seem to think that Fehily raced him into the lead but in reality all he did was let him stride on and he ran out of stamina. In the 2016 Hennessy he faded from the last and at Haydock last time he came to a walk. You can't blame the going as he has won more than once on heavy. Bear in mind he was 9ibs better in than he is this year as well. I just think the evidence suggests he doesn't stay 4 1/2 miles but maybe time will alter that however unlikely.
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Bindaree is correct, Blaklion is badly handicapped and doesn't stay the trip.
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Poorly handicapped , doesn't stay and could end up with top weight . He is a smashing little chap but he is on my lay list .
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it's true Blaklion would benefit from a more patient ride but I just can't get over the weight increase, the horse is badly handicapped, lovely jumper of the fences though
Tiger Roll is an interesting one now, not your typical profile with flat breeding and a Triumph Hurdle in the bag. The NH Chase at Cheltenham and the Cross Country have been really good pointers to the GN in recent years (Cause of Causes and Balthazar King are good examples), and Tiger Roll now ticks both those boxes one that interests me at a big price, and may not be a runner, is Rathvinden. Not your typical novice (albeit a 2nd season novice) and at 10 is the right age, after the win this week he is also now one of those "well in at the weights" horses Vintage Clouds is also interesting, and will be carrying 10st 0lb if he gets in and Definitely Red runs. He does have place form in the Welsh National which is important, his run in that race and this week at Cheltenham were very similar, looked beaten a long way out and then stayed on noticeably at the end to get placed. I think carrying such a light weight will be a big help |
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Vintage clouds would need heavy going to win, otherwise tends to get outpaced.
Couldn't confidently rule out Tiger roll and would have to be on my shortlist. |
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Vintage has shown it acts on Gd/s which the GN is invariably run on nowadays and wasn't disgraced in the Scottish National which was on good. It has to improve on that but as he is a relatively young horse that is not out of the question and the fact it races prominently also has to be in its favour. It always seems strong at the end of races.
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one bet so far for me
over 100\1 a genie in abottle |
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7 yr old !!
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I know vintage has a on good to soft but in this sort of company he has been outpaced several times. Even in the Welsh national he was outpaced and that was on heavy. If the ground does turn out to be testing I will back him, otherwise I don't think he has the speed to compete.
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Definitely Red is out - he is running in the Aintree Bowl.
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vieux lion rouge+blaklion for me
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I've always thought the National is about stamina and jumping ability and quite where speed comes into it I'm not sure. I can't remember having ever seen a horse show a great burst of speed at the end, more a case of just keep going as others start to cry enough.
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I thought it was quite common for winners to have decent form over shorter distances earlier in their career. National not a race you want to get too far behind in.
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Arthur managed it last year
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I think the problem with Vintage is not that he gets outpaced it's more that he's not always quick or as slick over the fences and also has a habit of hitting the occasional fence. This tends to cost it a few lengths especially when it's near the end of a race and it's always playing catch up.
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Tiger Roll for me. Taken the 16/1. Will be shorter.
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You may be correct but I would be surprised based on it's form. The 2nd horse in the cross country is moderate and wouldn't get in the GN. It's form in big field handicaps is mainly poor including last years Irish National when it pulled up.
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Do we think there is any chance of Ms Frost winning on Milansbar?
Big horse who will be in the first few and won the same race as One For Arthur |
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I would think it very unlikely.Would need it extremely heavy and she wouldn't be able to claim. Overall it doesn't seem to have the necessary class to win a modern national having been at best a 140-145 rated horse. What wins though does anyone know or have a little gem they have sorted out ? Personally I think anyone who bets any of the remaining runners at less than 16-1 is short changing themselves.
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Its amazing that the top 8 in the betting market Blaklion, Total Recall, Minella Rocco, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes, Last Samurai, Anibale Fly and Gold Present will all have heavy weights to carry round.
I would discount all 8 of these to win the race. Its extremely likely the winner will carry less than 11st. |
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Cause of Causes won the Cross Country far more impressively than Tiger Roll, before going on to be runner up in the National. I would guess that the Cross Country was more of a fitness exercise for Tiger Roll, in prep for the GN. I've backed Tiger Roll myself and it's more off the back of the win in the 4 miler at Cheltenham last year, a race which often produces GN candidates in future years
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Even the 4 mile Cheltenham form from last year wouldn't be good enough. Missed Approach, who has been withdrawn from the national, would have been 12 lbs better off for 3 lengths
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WARRIORS TALE seems a nice price.
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Cause of Causes just hit 50 on here, something amiss? I know they reported him a bit stiff after Cheltenham
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Blaklion had a wind op according to the Post , cross than one off along with C of C ....field is slowing falling apart , soon have it down to 4 probables(last 3 years winners have been in my selections thankfully).
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C of C unlikely to run apparently. Not surprising really and wouldn't be a shock if Tiger Roll doesn't make it, Cheltenham was attritional.
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Will be good to finally see a reappearance from Seeyouatmidnight today .
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Bellshill and Pleasant Company running in Irish National
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Acapella Bourgeois non runner
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Rathvinden non runner?
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Looks like the Irish trainers are targeting their own national over the English national
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Starting to come around to Rathvinden, despite being a novice and having a hard race last time. He is older than a novice usually would be and does have 11 chases already under his belt. He proved last time out that he stays and he has some classy hurdle/chase form at shorter distances. He'll be carrying less than 11 stone and acts on any ground. Can make mistakes but the fences are not as bad as they used to be.
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meat loaf isnt tiger roll under 11 in weights?
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Yes apologies Tiger Roll is under 11st
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I too like Rathvinden, but got to be a doubt they run him. Vintage Clouds looks like getting in so I've had a bet at 50/1
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Vintage Clouds is such a strange horse. Can never work out if he is well handicapped or badly handicapped.
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