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So it now looks like this until the five-days decs on April 9th.
Horse Age Wgt Owner Trainer 1) MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 8 11-10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 2) BLAKLION 9 11-09 Simon Such & Gino Paletta Nigel Twiston-Davies 3) ANIBALE FLY (FR) 8 11-07 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE 4) THE LAST SAMURI (IRE) 10 11-07 Paul & Clare Rooney Kim Bailey 5) VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 9 11-06 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE 6) TOTAL RECALL (IRE) 9 11-04 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 7) ALPHA DES OBEAUX (FR) 8 11-03 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 8) GOLD PRESENT (IRE) 8 11-03 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson 9) PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE) 11 11-02 ISL Recruitment Fergal O'Brien 10) CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA) 10 11-01 J P McManus Gordon Elliott IRE 11) SHANTOU FLYER (IRE) 8 11-01 Carl Hinchy Richard Hobson 12) TENOR NIVERNAIS (FR) 11 11-00 Boultbee Brooks Ltd Venetia Williams 13) CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) 12 11-00 J P McManus John Kiely IRE 14) VICENTE (FR) 9 10-13 Trevor Hemmings Paul Nicholls 15) GO CONQUER (IRE) 9 10-13 Paul & Clare Rooney Jonjo O'Neill 16) TIGER ROLL (IRE) 8 10-12 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 17) REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 10 10-12 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball 18) VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 9 10-12 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent David Pipe 19) RATHVINDEN (IRE) 10 10-12 Ronnie Bartlett Willie Mullins IRE 20) ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (FR) 8 10-12 Slaneyville Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 21) A GENIE IN ABOTTLE (IRE) 7 10-11 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 22) CHASE THE SPUD 10 10-11 Christine Banks Fergal O'Brien 23) WARRIORS TALE 9 10-11 Trevor Hemmings Paul Nicholls 24) SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT 10 10-11 Quona Thomson Sandy Thomson 25) AS DE MEE (FR) 8 10-11 The Stewart Family & Judi Dench Paul Nicholls 26) GAS LINE BOY (IRE) 12 10-10 The Three Graces Ian Williams 27) THE DUTCHMAN (IRE) 8 10-10 SprayClad UK Colin Tizzard 28) PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 10 10-10 Malcolm Denmark Willie Mullins IRE 29) BELLSHILL (IRE) 8 10-10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 30) UCELLO CONTI (FR) 10 10-09 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede Gordon Elliott IRE 31) SAINT ARE (FR) 12 10-09 David Fox Tom George 32) BEEVES (IRE) 11 10-09 Paul & Clare Rooney Jennie Candlish 33) RAZ DE MAREE (FR) 13 10-08 James Swan Gavin Cromwell IRE 34) I JUST KNOW (IRE) 8 10-07 Michael Scholey & the late Ray Scholey Sue Smith 35) VIRGILIO (FR) 9 10-07 C Edwards, D Futter, A Rushworth Dan Skelton 36) BAIE DES ILES (FR) 7 10-07 Zorka Wentworth Ross O'Sullivan IRE 37) MAGGIO (FR) 13 10-07 Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont Patrick Griffin IRE 38) PENDRA (IRE) 10 10-07 J P McManus Charlie Longsdon 39) BUYWISE (IRE) 11 10-07 T Hywel Jones Evan Williams 40) CHILDRENS LIST (IRE) 8 10-07 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 41) HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) 11 10-06 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams 42) LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) 12 10-06 Dr Ronan Lambe Jim Culloty IRE 43) CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 9 10-06 Stuart Coltherd Stuart Coltherd 44) BLESS THE WINGS (IRE) 13 10-05 Adrian Butler/S P O'Connor Gordon Elliott IRE 45) MILANSBAR (IRE) 11 10-05 Robert Bothway Neil King 46) FINAL NUDGE (IRE) 9 10-05 Corbett Stud David Dennis 47) DOUBLE ROSS (IRE) 12 10-05 Options O Syndicate Nigel Twiston-Davies 48) ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) 11 10-04 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 49) DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR (IRE) 8 10-04 McGoldrick Racing 3 Sue Smith 50) THUNDER AND ROSES (IRE) 10 10-04 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 51) WALK IN THE MILL (FR) 8 10-03 Baroness Harding Robert Walford 52) VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) 8 10-03 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith 53) WOUNDED WARRIOR (IRE) 9 10-01 Gigginstown House Stud Noel Meade IRE 54) GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE) 9 10-01 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 55) VIC DE TOUZAINE (FR) 9 10-01 Andrew Brooks & G Moore Venetia Williams 56) SPLASH OF GINGE 10 10-00 John Neild Nigel Twiston-Davies 57) BONNY KATE (IRE) 8 10-00 Patricia Hunt Noel Meade IRE 58) COGRY 9 10-00 Graham and Alison Jelley Nigel Twiston-Davies 59) SIR MANGAN (IRE) 10 10-00 Frank McAleavy Dan Skelton 60) MYSTEREE (IRE) 10 10-00 Lynne Maclennan Michael Scudamore 61) MINELLA DADDY (IRE) 8 9-13 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen 62) BRAQUEUR D'OR (FR) 7 9-13 Corsellis & Seyfried Paul Nicholls 63) RELENTLESS DREAMER (IRE) 9 9013 Nigel Morris Rebecca Curtis 64) KNOCK HOUSE (IRE) 9 9012 Tim Leslie Donald McCain 65) THE YOUNG MASTER 9 9011 Mike Burbidge & The Old Masters Neil Mulholland 66) HENRI PARRY MORGAN 10 9-09 Ednyfed & Elizabeth Morgan Peter Bowen 67) PHIL'S MAGIC (IRE) 8 9-09 Lyreen Syndicate Tony Martin IRE 68) ALFIE SPINNER (IRE) 13 9-09 Alan Beard & Brian Beard Kerry Lee 69) DANCING SHADOW (IRE) 9 9-08 The Dancing Shadows Victor Dartnall 70) ROGUE ANGEL (IRE) 10 9-08 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 71) OUT SAM 9 9-06 D Charlesworth Gordon Elliott IRE 72) KRACKATOA KING 10 9-03 J Harrison Lee & T Howard P'ship Kerry Lee 73) GOODTOKNOW 10 9-02 Burling Lee MacEchern Nolan Potter Kerry Lee 73 entries remain following March 20 scratchings' deadline 27 Irish-trained |
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An awful lot of familiar Aintree horses left.
Shortlist now Baie Des Iles Rathvinden Tiger Roll Regal Encore Road To Riches Milansbar |
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What do we think will be the cut off point? 52/53?
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Sadly another nail in the coffin of the GN thanks to Smith. As it stands just 17lbs between the top weight and bottom weight. A race now dominated by big trainers and owners on their ego trips. Quality much better ? Just look at some of the dross that he has given weights to so as they will be able to run and have their day out.
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I would guess 48/50
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What has Phil Smith done wrong then Bindaree?
I didn't see much wrong with it this year . |
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It is a very uninspiring line up .
Wounded Warrior & Thunder And Roses run in almost every staying chase in Ireland The Last Samurai , Ucello , Vieux , Saint Are , Lord Windermere , Cause , Gas Line , Houblon , Pleasant Company , Vicente .....all had their chance wont figure. |
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The damage has been done in previous years by pandering to big owners by allowing the so-called better horses to carry less than the rating they have to the detriment of the good stayers who contest the other long distance chases. Of the 40 that are guaranteed a run 33% are owned by just 3 owners. A lot of the horses which he tried to attract weren't suited to the race and the prize money is the biggest attraction nowadays anyway.
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Is there a thread with a list of DOUBTFULs? Which 10+ horses are coming out for Vintage Clouds to get in?
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"Of the 40 that are guaranteed a run 33% are owned by just 3 owners"
That's a telling figure |
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I think this is one of the least inspiring Nationals I can remember-probably due in part to the reasons highlighted below by Bindaree
Looking at some of the entries it does make you wonder if they are just running to stop others from getting a run and they don't have realistic chances-a comment made by some Irish observers about last year's Irish National Really struggling to find a shortlist of any substance this year. |
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surely if there are loads of horses running with no realistic chance of winning it should be easy to come up with a shortlist?
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Agreed it is a very uninspiring line up ......not exactly 1994 with 3 Gold Cup winners, Whitbread winner , Foxhunter winner , Scottish National winner.
Was any reason given for The Dutchman going from on the bridle to totally going up and down on the spot at Haydock? I do think the 2 women with rides on Milansbar and Baie Des Iles have a very good chance of creating history in this average field |
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said I was struggling to get a shortlist of any substance
I think I have a couple with chances but we are still over 3 weeks away and have little indication of the likely ground |
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Or 2002 sixtwosix !! I think The Dutchman was supposed to have bled.
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I don't think it's a case of "loads of horses with no realistic chance of winning". The problem is with horses such as Go Conquer who Jonjo O'Neill doesn't seem too sure if it will stay. Well if he doesn't know who is supposed to and why waste peoples money finding out if it doesn't. Why didn't he try the horse over an appropriate distance before entering it. He's not the only one. That's the problem with the National nowadays these trainers and owners throw a load of darts at the board and hope one hits the bull !!
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1 Minella Rocco - some good form, will stay but very dodgy jumper.
2 blaklion - didn't seem to quite stay last year, higher rating and carrying more weight won't help this time around. 3 anibale fly - career best performance last time, officially 9lb well in after that. Shapes as though will stay, bad fall 2 starts ago but jumped fine either side of that. 4 The last samuri - carrying more weight than when a gallant second two years ago, enjoys the fences but too high in the handicap. 5 valseur lido - well weighted on some old form, not sure he still retains ability and also a doubtful stayer. Going to go through the whole card 5 at a time, as much as for my benefit as for anyone else but feel free to disagree. Struggling for a strong opinion this year. |
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Can't see anything to disagree with your assessments so far. I did say "so far" lol
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Bad rain here in the north west. Hope it's not a bog, being on Blaklion. My other main hope The Last Samuri. Think both could easily go very well indeed!
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The ground is obviously a vital factor. My personal preference is to take proven stayers with light weights regardless but if its soft or worse then I just couldn't be considering those carrying 11 soneplus. I adored Many Clouds and consider him an exceptional national winner, bucking all the trends at the time. But despite him having soft ground form he walked home in 16th in 2016 carrying 11st 10.
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I like Milansbar, Vintage Clouds and Gas line Boy as although they have soft and heavy form I think they could be competitive on better ground judging on their sires preferences. Raz de maree would also be there on the list but only on soft or worse.
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I would prefer a bog because Raz de Maree would be a great bet, even if 13, very few others would be capable of finishing let alone winning
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The weather doesn't look very inspiring for the next 16-18 days. Aintree week it's less that 10 degrees and overcast every day. There will be damp and juice in the ground each morning I'd say.
I'm warming to Seeyouatmidnight, Raz De Maree, I Just Know & Milansbar. Would like to see Vintage Clouds get in but I don't think there will be quite enough defectors. Irish National will tell us plenty on Monday. |
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I think I Just Know may have been handicapped out of it, put up a stone from the Catterick win
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I really can't see how Seeyouatmidnight can win after it's Newbury run, it surely needs massive improvement in too short a time. Also can you really imagine Milansbar as a National winner, it just hasn't got the form in major races. It would need a lot of non finishers to prevail I think.
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Seeyouatmidnight did little last year nor on run recently.....another one to cross off.
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Milansbar as a National winner, it just hasn't got the form in major races.
It did win the same race as One For Arthur .....and won it easier . |
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and would have won a Midlands National but for pilot error
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Stays longer than the mother-in-law too
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Jumped superbly for Bryony at Warwick and she got the pace right too
Haven't heard whether she will be riding at Aintree |
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Nothing it beat in the Warwick race would ever threaten to win a GN and most probably none of them would even get in the race, plus it's been well beaten twice since.
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Mind it can only finish as Baie De Iles is going to win
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True , but all these staying chasers have pulled ups and also rans in their list.
Milansbar a big horse who will carry no weight and likes to be handy , should go well for a long way at least. |
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It didn't win the same race as One for Arthur the previous year because it was well beaten by One for Arthur. You can't compare the two, one was an up-and-coming young horse and the other is a veteran who has never reached the same heights.
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You say it "stays longer than the mother-in-law" but the evidence doesn't back that up as it's been well beaten in every attempt at 4 miles plus.
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