Grand National
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Cause of causes - will not be the first horse in 75 years to win as a seven year old .
Soll- change of stables since 2013 Grand national but even Pipe wont make it stay trip
Unioniste - another 7 year old and he will not stay .
Merry king - he could stay trip but as he has never won a chase more than 2 and half miles i can not see him winning a Grand National .
Saint are - has been in good form this season but i doubt he can cope with this distance .
Night in Milan -should be leading the race with Across the Bay for a circuit and a half before fading away .
Soll- change of stables since 2013 Grand national but even Pipe wont make it stay trip
Unioniste - another 7 year old and he will not stay .
Merry king - he could stay trip but as he has never won a chase more than 2 and half miles i can not see him winning a Grand National .
Saint are - has been in good form this season but i doubt he can cope with this distance .
Night in Milan -should be leading the race with Across the Bay for a circuit and a half before fading away .
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Replies: 52
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Don't be too sure Soll won't stay.
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can only go off the 2013 Grand National when Soll clearly did not stay and it has not won a chase further than 3 miles 2 furlongs in his career . Pipe has got the horse in better form since he got it but even Pipe will struggle to give him the stamina needed to win this race
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If Soll has the class to win this i will pack in punting on it.
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How to win as much as you like on the Grand National:
1) Lay Shutthefrontdoor, Balthazar King, Cause Of Causes, Unioniste, Merry King, Alvarado, Many Clouds, Spring Heeled and Soll at around 5/2. None of them has a hope in hell.  |
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Hope to see you back on here after the race, admitting you got it wrong !
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Surprised you're so sure that Unioniste wont stay.
A winner over 3m on desperate ground at Sandown wouldnt indicate, to my eyes anyway, that he's a definite non stayer. |
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Unioniste won over 3 miles at Sandown on officially soft ground . theres a hell of a difference running another mile and half . plus like i stated its 75 years since a 7 year old or younger won the race . am pretty sure some punters will take a chance on him , however as a stat and trend man when it comes to the Grand National it was one of the first horses i ruled out
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10,10,11,11,11 ........age of last 5 winners .
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Im not so sure that there's as big a difference as you make out. Sandown and its hill on a day that the horses winning time was 46 seconds slower than standard, against Aintree's flat track, extra mile and half and better going.
More worryingly is the fact you rule out the horse due to its age. That means the square root of jack sh!t, especially when the "inexperienced" horse had its formative years in France. Next you'll be telling me greys cant win or jockeys with the letter Z or more than 3 vowels in their name cant either. Good luck either way! |
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up to any punter to treat past results worthless . but i find it amazing that anybody other than a once a year housewife could back a 7 year old in this grueling marathon trip . the statistics and trends of the past winners say it all really
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barry clearly has this game by the ba77s
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not really Blackbarn but it is a lot easier to rule out what cant win than to pick the winner from list of potential winners i have left
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I have backed Soll and whilst you can't say he will stay has enough form over further than 3 miles to be hopeful.He plugged on when beaten less than 5 lengths in 29.5 furlong race at Sandown. Plus he has produced his 2 career best runs in his last 2 races. Last week I thought that 25-1 5 places made him the best value in race .
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Soll was in great form before the 2013 Grand National making all in very heavy conditions at Sandown to win unchallenged under a burden of 11-10 As a result he went into the grand national as a lively well backed 33-1 outsider . however he weakened from two furlongs out and was a well beaten by over 45 lengths . the following year connections ran SOLL in the Topham chase instead of the National . this can only be because trainer knew horse did not stay previous year or maybe missed the National cut . i think the former .
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They wanted to run in National last year but missed the cut. Topham an afterthought and was outpaced as needs further. In his National finished ahead of Seabass who weakened worse than Soll but had finished 3rd in year previously. Not all horses who weaken are non stayers some are just not good enough on the day. Willie Mullins ran him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham so he thought he could stay extreme distances. Stamina in doubt but not proven in my opinion that he won't stay
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on the plus side for Soll he is with far better trainer will be ridden by a better jockey and is 2 year stronger .. still happy laying him
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Somerset Sam 01 Apr 15 13:10
More worryingly is the fact you rule out the horse due to its age. That means the square root of jack sh!t, especially when the "inexperienced" horse had its formative years in France. More worryingly is the fact that you think a 7 year old can win when the last one to do it was in 1940! |
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Barry...agree with you. 75years since a 7 year old has won it.....doesn't mean to say one won't or can't win it, but from a punting point of view the high risk isn't worth the bet. Why do you think older horses win the race.......its not because they are always the better horses in the race but they are good horses with the required experience....and I mean that in terms of character as well as races.
But the staying issue that some talk about is not just "can a 2m5f horse or a 3m horse" stay the 4 and half miles.....the fact is.... can a horse have the strength and stamina to keep jumping (acurately and efficiently enough) the national fences and still travel the long distance. Jumping those fences simply sap the strength out of the horses legs (let alone the jockeys arms and legs). 3m 2f over convientional fences compared with 4m 3f over bigger, wider national fences is a world apart. But I don't agree with you re Saint Are.....think he has a real chance. Likes Aintree and seems to be better than ever this season, still ( yrs old)...i just get the impression that the horse is better in himself and the races he has been running well in and the one he won recently he seems to be finishing strongly so I have a view he will stay and if the ground has good in the description could easily out run the 33/1. |
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Lets rule out 8 year olds as well
No winners in the last 10 years despite 58 runners out of a total of 400 = 14.5%, all things being equal (which they aren't!) you would expect an 8 year old to win approximately every 7 years which they don't. Additionally the incidence of 8 year old winners is declining  Last 40 years 3/40 = 7.5% Last 30 years 2/30 = 6.7% Last 20 years 1/20 = 5% Last 10 years 0/10 = 0% Re 7 year old runners - over the past 10 years there have been 21 representing 5.25% of the total runners, so all things being equal (which they are not) you would expect a 7 year old to win about every 19 years which they dont, but given standard distribution a run of 75 consecutive losers is not actually that unexpected. I wouldn't back one mind. I guess my key point here (and to repeat it) you cannot start statistical analysis with the profile of the WINNER, you must start with the profile of the Runners and then (in simple terms) seek attributes that are common (or uncommon) in the winners AND common (or uncommon) in the losers. Its why they pay Actuaries what they do  |
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Somerset Sam 02 Apr 15 11:34
How many 7 year olds have actually tried? That in itself should tell you something. |
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7 year olds winning the Grand National? I've never heard anything so stupid. Next you'll be telling me you can win the Gold Cup with a Novice.
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Roger - When Sam posted the question, did you know the answer? Just wondering
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Since the 80's, there's been 41 seven year olds had a go, with Big Fella Thanks finishing 6th, the best effort.
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the GN is a test of stamina, which suits older animals. It's a bit similar with humans, you don't get many 25 year olds winning marathons or the Tour de France, and it's not as if 25 is young when you think of athletes. There is a lot to be said for ignoring the 7 year olds, and the 8 year olds to a degree
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Fabulous - which year in the 1980's, that number seems somewhat understated.
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Apologies Blackbarn if I'm way out, I always had it in my head 41 seven year olds, and 10 six year olds since 1980. I've a funny feeling it might be 43, and I hadn't included the 2 from last year
 I'm more embarassed that I forgot Senator Maclacury who was 5th.I'm pretty sure that I've forgot those 2 from last year, and it should be 41, but if I'm way out, sincere apologies, no strong opinion on 7 year olds either way (I've bet Cause of Causes) and not trying to put anyone away. |
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Not saying Soll will win but he's not going off a big price - was an absolute trading steal at 25/1 5 places. Can see it go off at 12/1 or less.
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Blackbarn, Fabulous
I am not guaranteeing the accuracy but I have figures of 10 six year olds and 40 seven year olds running between 1988 and 2014 (inclusive) - none placed in the first 4. Also 31 thirteen year olds and 5 fourteen year olds, all unplaced. I am not sure that the figures are significant with the new fences anyway. My (hazy) recall is that most of these runners were rags anyway. |
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Happy with that Blackbarn, as means we're on the same line, and 43 would be right then. At first I thought you were going to tell me it was over 100......that would have had me worried as I'm a sad case when it comes to The National. I was quite relieved when I knew it was still low 40's haha
The only ones in the 80's before 88, were Attitude Adjuster, Senator Macalacury, and I'm wanting to say Dudie. I'd agree about their relevance, I just put them up to give people an idea of the numbers  |
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7 year old with cheekpieces and ridden by a female seemed to stay well enough in todays big race. Cue the 5 furlongs more to travel posts.
Who you gonna call, STATBUSTER.........  "I aint afraid of no stats" - copyright - Ray Parker JNR |
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You're right. And horses as young as three win the Derby so conclusively young horses do win big races. You crack on with this project - it can't go wrong.
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Oh, and incidentally since 1999 seven 7 year olds have won the Irish National. And a 6 year old. So if you honestly think a 7 year old winning it boosts the chances of a 7 year old winning at Aintree when it hasn't been done since the war then you honestly are a bit mad.
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I'll tell you whats mad, how on one hand you concede that younger horses can win the Irish National but categorically not the big one, all due to nothing more than past events.
By that calculation you should be onto trying to predict the first ball out of the lottery machine this week, because to all intenrs and purposes thats what 4 1/2 miles over 40 fences is, a lottery. No matter what anyone tries to tell you. PS You do know the Derby will always be won by a 3 year old, right?! |
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saint are, wont stay hes already finnished 9th in the race as a 7 year old .. this time around hes a 9 year old with more experience , ran really well last time out at sandown .
e/way still at 33s .. may even win it |
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Somerset Sam
The Irish Nat is a Micky Mouse race compaired to English one just look at criteria and official ratings required. Only about 6ish of Irish National field would get in English one |
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Yep. The two races have no relevance to one another
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I wholly appreciate the difference in the quality of the two races. I was merely pointing out that 7 year olds can, and do, stay and win over extreme distances, which is what Barry seemed so sure couldnt happen in the National, (with regards to Unioniste).
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