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barry rico
29 Mar 15 09:41
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Date Joined: 24 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: barry rico's blog
Cause of causes  - will not be the first horse in 75 years to win as a seven year old .
Soll- change of stables since 2013 Grand national but even Pipe wont make it stay trip
Unioniste - another 7 year old  and he will not stay .
Merry king - he could stay trip but as he has never won a chase more than 2 and half miles i can not see him winning a Grand National .
Saint are - has been in good form this season but i doubt he can cope with this distance .
Night in Milan -should be leading the race with Across the Bay for a circuit and a half before fading away .
Pause Switch to Standard View six fancied horses i have laid in...
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Report fact find March 29, 2015 1:42 PM BST
Don't be too sure Soll won't stay.
Report barry rico March 29, 2015 2:09 PM BST
can only go off the 2013 Grand National when Soll clearly did not stay and it has not won a chase further than  3 miles 2 furlongs in his career  . Pipe has got the horse in better form since he got it  but even Pipe will struggle to give him the stamina needed to win this race
Report jasey March 29, 2015 4:36 PM BST
If Soll has the class to win this i will pack in punting on it.
Report coffeedodger March 30, 2015 2:47 AM BST
How to win as much as you like on the Grand National:

1) Lay Shutthefrontdoor, Balthazar King, Cause Of Causes, Unioniste, Merry King, Alvarado, Many Clouds, Spring Heeled and Soll at around 5/2. None of them has a hope in hell.Excited
Report Facts March 30, 2015 7:55 AM BST
Hope to see you back on here after the race, admitting you got it wrong ! Happy
Report Somerset Sam April 1, 2015 11:54 AM BST
Surprised you're so sure that Unioniste wont stay.

A winner over 3m on desperate ground at Sandown wouldnt indicate, to my eyes anyway, that he's a definite non stayer.
Report barry rico April 1, 2015 12:09 PM BST
Unioniste won over 3 miles at Sandown on officially soft ground . theres a hell of a difference running another mile and half . plus like i stated its 75 years since a 7 year old or younger won the race . am pretty sure some punters will take a chance on him  , however as a stat and trend man when it comes to the Grand National it was one of the first horses i ruled out
Report sixtwosix April 1, 2015 1:02 PM BST
10,10,11,11,11 ........age of last 5 winners .
Report Somerset Sam April 1, 2015 1:02 PM BST

Apr 1, 2015 -- 6:09AM, barry rico wrote:


Unioniste won over 3 miles at Sandown on officially soft ground . theres a hell of a difference running another mile and half . plus like i stated its 75 years since a 7 year old or younger won the race . am pretty sure some punters will take a chance on him

Report Somerset Sam April 1, 2015 1:10 PM BST
Im not so sure that there's as big a difference as you make out. Sandown and its hill on a day that the horses winning time was 46 seconds slower than standard, against Aintree's flat track, extra mile and half and better going.

More worryingly is the fact you rule out the horse due to its age. That means the square root of jack sh!t, especially when the "inexperienced" horse had its formative years in France. Next you'll be telling me greys cant win or jockeys with the letter Z or more than 3 vowels in their name cant either. Good luck either way!
Report barry rico April 1, 2015 1:54 PM BST
up to any punter to treat past results worthless . but i find it amazing that anybody other than a once a year housewife could back a 7 year old in this grueling marathon trip . the statistics and trends of the past winners say it all really
Report blackbarn April 1, 2015 2:07 PM BST
barry clearly has this game by the ba77sWink
Report barry rico April 1, 2015 2:15 PM BST
not really Blackbarn but it is a lot easier to rule out what cant win than to pick the winner from list of potential winners i have left
Report Sultan April 1, 2015 2:20 PM BST
I have backed Soll and whilst you can't say he will stay has enough form over further than 3 miles to be hopeful.He plugged on when beaten less than 5 lengths in 29.5 furlong race at Sandown. Plus he has produced his 2 career best runs   in his last 2 races. Last week I thought that 25-1 5 places made him the best value in race .
Report barry rico April 1, 2015 3:01 PM BST
Soll was in great form before the 2013 Grand National making all in very heavy conditions at Sandown to win unchallenged under  a burden of 11-10   As a result   he went into the grand national as a lively well backed 33-1 outsider . however he weakened from  two furlongs out and was a well beaten by over 45 lengths . the following year connections ran SOLL  in the Topham chase instead of the National . this can only be because trainer knew horse did not stay previous year or maybe missed the National cut . i think the former .
Report Sultan April 1, 2015 5:58 PM BST
They wanted to run in National last year but missed the cut. Topham an afterthought and was outpaced as needs further. In his National finished ahead of Seabass who weakened worse than Soll but had finished 3rd in year previously. Not all horses who weaken are non stayers some are just not good enough on the day. Willie Mullins ran him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham so he thought he could stay extreme distances. Stamina in doubt but not proven in my opinion that he won't stay
Report barry rico April 1, 2015 6:39 PM BST
on the plus side for Soll  he is with far better  trainer will be ridden by a better jockey and is 2 year stronger .. still happy laying him
Report Roger The Butler April 1, 2015 11:36 PM BST
Somerset Sam   01 Apr 15 13:10 
More worryingly is the fact you rule out the horse due to its age. That means the square root of jack sh!t, especially when the "inexperienced" horse had its formative years in France.


More worryingly is the fact that you think a 7 year old can win when the last one to do it was in 1940!
Report Shakepseare's Sheriff April 1, 2015 11:37 PM BST
Barry...agree with you.  75years since a 7 year old has won it.....doesn't mean to say one won't or can't win it, but from a punting point of view the high risk isn't worth the bet.  Why do you think older horses win the race.......its not because they are always the better horses in the race but they are good horses with the required experience....and I mean that in terms of character as well as races. 
But the staying issue that some talk about is not just "can a 2m5f horse or a 3m horse" stay the 4 and half miles.....the fact is.... can a horse have the strength and stamina to keep jumping (acurately and efficiently enough) the national fences and still travel the long distance. Jumping those fences simply sap the strength out of the horses legs (let alone the jockeys arms and legs).  3m 2f over convientional fences compared with 4m 3f over bigger, wider national fences is a world apart.

But I don't agree with you re Saint Are.....think he has a real chance.  Likes Aintree and seems to be better than ever this season, still ( yrs old)...i just get the impression that the horse is better in himself and the races he has been running well in and the one he won recently he seems to be finishing strongly so I have a view he will stay and if the ground has good in the description could easily out run the 33/1.
Report Somerset Sam April 2, 2015 11:34 AM BST

Apr 1, 2015 -- 5:36PM, Roger The Butler wrote:


Somerset Sam   01 Apr 15 13:10  More worryingly is the fact you rule out the horse due to its age. That means the square root of jack sh!t, especially when the "inexperienced" horse had its formative years in France.  More worryingly is the fact that you think a 7 year old can win when the last one to do it was in 1940!


The lunatics have broken out the asylum. How many 7 year olds have actually tried?

So we'll rule out greys, horses ridden by females, jockeys with five letters in their name blah blah blah. Total poppycock.

Stats are an indication but ultimately have no actual influence on a given day for a given race. The horse does not know what the stats say.

Report blackbarn April 2, 2015 11:42 AM BST
Lets rule out 8 year olds as wellWink

No winners in the last 10 years despite 58 runners out of a total of 400 = 14.5%, all things being equal (which they aren't!) you would expect an 8 year old to win approximately every 7 years which they don't. Additionally the incidence of 8 year old winners is decliningCry

Last 40 years 3/40 = 7.5%
Last 30 years 2/30 = 6.7%
Last 20 years 1/20 = 5%
Last 10 years 0/10 = 0%

Re 7 year old runners - over the past 10 years there have been 21 representing 5.25% of the total runners, so all things being equal (which they are not) you would expect a 7 year old to win about every 19 years which they dont, but given standard distribution a run of 75 consecutive losers is not actually that unexpected.  I wouldn't back one mind.

I guess my key point here (and to repeat it) you cannot start statistical analysis with the profile of the WINNER, you must start with the profile of the Runners and then (in simple terms) seek attributes that are common (or uncommon) in the winners AND common (or uncommon) in the losers.   Its why they pay Actuaries what they doCoolCool
Report Roger The Butler April 2, 2015 9:56 PM BST
Somerset Sam   02 Apr 15 11:34 
How many 7 year olds have actually tried?


That in itself should tell you something.
Report marychain1 April 2, 2015 10:38 PM BST
7 year olds winning the Grand National? I've never heard anything so stupid. Next you'll be telling me you can win the Gold Cup with a Novice.
Report blackbarn April 2, 2015 10:44 PM BST
Roger - When Sam posted the question, did you know the answer?  Just wonderingWink
Report Fabulous April 2, 2015 10:55 PM BST
Since the 80's, there's been 41 seven year olds had a go, with Big Fella Thanks finishing 6th, the best effort.
Report the bloob April 2, 2015 10:57 PM BST
the GN is a test of stamina, which suits older animals. It's a bit similar with humans, you don't get many 25 year olds winning marathons or the Tour de France, and it's not as if 25 is young when you think of athletes. There is a lot to be said for ignoring the 7 year olds, and the 8 year olds to a degree
Report blackbarn April 2, 2015 11:06 PM BST
Fabulous - which year in the 1980's, that number seems somewhat understated.
Report Fabulous April 2, 2015 11:32 PM BST
Apologies Blackbarn if I'm way out, I always had it in my head 41 seven year olds, and 10 six year olds since 1980. I've a funny feeling it might be 43, and I hadn't included the 2 from last year Blush I'm more embarassed that I forgot Senator Maclacury who was 5th.

I'm pretty sure that I've forgot those 2 from last year, and it should be 41, but if I'm way out, sincere apologies, no strong opinion on 7 year olds either way (I've bet Cause of Causes) and not trying to put anyone away.
Report racingguru April 2, 2015 11:42 PM BST
Not saying Soll will win but he's not going off a big price - was an absolute trading steal at 25/1 5 places. Can see it go off at 12/1 or less.
Report Rydal April 3, 2015 6:33 AM BST
Blackbarn, Fabulous

I am not guaranteeing the accuracy but I have figures of 10 six year olds and 40 seven year olds running between 1988 and 2014 (inclusive) - none placed in the first 4. Also 31 thirteen year olds and 5 fourteen year olds, all unplaced. I am not sure that the figures are significant with the new fences anyway. My (hazy) recall is that most of these runners were rags anyway.
Report Fabulous April 3, 2015 8:51 AM BST
Happy with that Blackbarn, as means we're on the same line, and 43 would be right then. At first I thought you were going to tell me it was over 100......that would have had me worried as I'm a sad case when it comes to The National. I was quite relieved when I knew it was still low 40's haha

The only ones in the 80's before 88, were Attitude Adjuster, Senator Macalacury, and I'm wanting to say Dudie.

I'd agree about their relevance, I just put them up to give people an idea of the numbers Grin
Report Somerset Sam April 6, 2015 7:26 PM BST
7 year old with cheekpieces and ridden by a female seemed to stay well enough in todays big race. Cue the 5 furlongs more to travel posts.

Who you gonna call, STATBUSTER.........Laugh "I aint afraid of no stats" - copyright - Ray Parker JNR
Report Roger The Butler April 6, 2015 10:23 PM BST
You're right. And horses as young as three win the Derby so conclusively young horses do win big races. You crack on with this project - it can't go wrong.
Report Roger The Butler April 6, 2015 10:32 PM BST
Oh, and incidentally since 1999 seven 7 year olds have won the Irish National. And a 6 year old. So if you honestly think a 7 year old winning it boosts the chances of a 7 year old winning at Aintree when it hasn't been done since the war then you honestly are a bit mad.
Report Somerset Sam April 6, 2015 10:44 PM BST
I'll tell you whats mad, how on one hand you concede that younger horses can win the Irish National but categorically not the big one, all due to nothing more than past events.

By that calculation you should be onto trying to predict the first ball out of the lottery machine this week, because to all intenrs and purposes thats what 4 1/2 miles over 40 fences is, a lottery. No matter what anyone tries to tell you.

PS You do know the Derby will always be won by a 3 year old, right?!
Report bigdeal2 April 6, 2015 11:12 PM BST
saint are,  wont stay hes already finnished 9th in the race as a 7 year old .. this time around hes a 9 year old with more experience , ran really well last time out at sandown .
e/way still at 33s .. may even win it
Report jasey April 6, 2015 11:50 PM BST
Somerset Sam
The Irish Nat is a Micky Mouse race compaired to English one just look at criteria and official ratings required.
Only about 6ish of  Irish National  field would get in English one
Report Facts April 7, 2015 3:46 AM BST
Yep. The two races have no relevance to one another
Report Somerset Sam April 7, 2015 12:38 PM BST
I wholly appreciate the difference in the quality of the two races. I was merely pointing out that 7 year olds can, and do, stay and win over extreme distances, which is what Barry seemed so sure couldnt happen in the National, (with regards to Unioniste).
Report x20 April 7, 2015 9:15 PM BST
trends man in post on Monday for Irish National said only 4 horses met all the trends. You won't need me to tell you that the winner was one of them. Only way you could have backed it mind you..
Report cricketnut2 April 7, 2015 10:47 PM BST
If you follow trends, you can knock out many fancied horses, this years favourite, has hardly got any of the trends needed, but will go off at around 5-6/1, because its Tony McCoy's last ever ride in the National and it will be a newspaper headline on Saturday. Trends work for all races, you won't get the winner of every race, but you can find 10/1 winners, more often than you think and sometimes, like on Monday you get a 20/1 winner, 25/1 best price like Thunder and Roses, you don't need too many of them to knock out all the losers, that you get.
Report Facts April 7, 2015 11:03 PM BST
What were Thunder and Roses's trends ?
Report bigdeal2 April 7, 2015 11:15 PM BST
i wonder what the trends were for Foinavon 100-1 and mon mone 100-1 .. its the national guys , you can study the form all you like .. at the end of the day , you need lady luck to on youre side .
Report Roger The Butler April 7, 2015 11:25 PM BST
Actually, Mon Mome made it onto the shortlist of 7-8 horses via trends for the National. Amazing but true.
Report jasey April 7, 2015 11:29 PM BST
Yes correct Mon Mome was a big trend pick.
Report Steamship April 8, 2015 12:46 AM BST
Regarding the trends, I'm sure most know about the must have won a class 2 race and at least 3 miles.
Others to consider
19+ starts
16-42 days last run
I would still give a negative to over 11st

Shutthefrontdoor has only run in 14 NH races and has gone 5 months since his last run. He will have to overcome the 11st barrier and he is only an 8 year old. There is enough there for me to avoid him like the plague.

First Lieutenant has only the 11st barrier to overcome. He has won at Aintree.

Best on trends are
Mon Parrain
Carlito Brigante
Night In Milan
Godsmejudge
Al Co
Across The Bay
Portrait King
Royale Knight

A lot of them fall down on 1 negative
Report Haemolysis April 8, 2015 10:05 AM BST
I know some people hate stats and think that stat merchants can't read form.
But in a race with 40 runners where form is sometimes hidden, a lot have been running over hurdles, and stamina is taken on trust for 1st time runners, I feel its my best way (important bit that - MY best way) to get the field down to a manageable size from a punting perspective.
For example, I'm not saying a 7 year old can't win, what I am doing is looking at 40 runners and saying to myself, 'a 7 year old has not won it for 70 odd years, until one does I'm leaving them out of my equation'.
So;
Aged 8-12 (narrowed to 9-11 if required later)
19+ NH starts
10+ chases
3+ chase wins
Max 1 win this season prior to weights announcement
Won a race over 3M 1F+
Won a C1 or C2 race
Won or placed in a chase with 15+ runners
LTO
Report Haemolysis April 8, 2015 10:07 AM BST
Page break nonsense

LTO
Report Somerset Sam April 11, 2015 8:57 PM BST
Surely an 8 year old carrying 11st 9 cant win?

Who you gonna call?
Report Roger The Butler April 11, 2015 10:19 PM BST
Surely a 7 year old has as good a chance as any, especially as they often win a different race over a shorter trip in another country? Oh no, they still don't even have a sniff.
Report Facts April 12, 2015 6:52 AM BST
[i]coffeedodger     30 Mar 15 02:47 
How to win as much as you like on the Grand National:

1) Lay Shutthefrontdoor, Balthazar King, Cause Of Causes, Unioniste, Merry King, Alvarado, Many Clouds, Spring Heeled and Soll at around 5/2. None of them has a hope in hell.



Facts     30 Mar 15 07:55 
Hope to see you back on here after the race, admitting you got it wrong !



Report Somerset Sam April 12, 2015 11:03 AM BST

Apr 11, 2015 -- 4:19PM, Roger The Butler wrote:


Surely a 7 year old has as good a chance as any, especially as they often win a different race over a shorter trip in another country? Oh no, they still don't even have a sniff.


Your stats wouldnt have given you yesterdays winner whatever way you look at them. You cant argue with that in any way shape or form. (Or maybe you will Laugh)

To spell it out for you:

8 year olds 0-59 over the last 10 years, (prior to yesterday) Oops.
11st 9 lb the highest weight carried in the race since Red Rum over 40 years ago. Oops.

It did have a noseband on though.Cool

Give Ray Parker jnr a call. #Trendssmyarse

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