Grand National
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six fancied horses i have laid in Grand National
six fancied horses i have laid in Grand National
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trends man in post on Monday for Irish National said only 4 horses met all the trends. You won't need me to tell you that the winner was one of them. Only way you could have backed it mind you..
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If you follow trends, you can knock out many fancied horses, this years favourite, has hardly got any of the trends needed, but will go off at around 5-6/1, because its Tony McCoy's last ever ride in the National and it will be a newspaper headline on Saturday. Trends work for all races, you won't get the winner of every race, but you can find 10/1 winners, more often than you think and sometimes, like on Monday you get a 20/1 winner, 25/1 best price like Thunder and Roses, you don't need too many of them to knock out all the losers, that you get.
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What were Thunder and Roses's trends ?
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i wonder what the trends were for Foinavon 100-1 and mon mone 100-1 .. its the national guys , you can study the form all you like .. at the end of the day , you need lady luck to on youre side .
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Actually, Mon Mome made it onto the shortlist of 7-8 horses via trends for the National. Amazing but true.
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Yes correct Mon Mome was a big trend pick.
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Regarding the trends, I'm sure most know about the must have won a class 2 race and at least 3 miles.
Others to consider 19+ starts 16-42 days last run I would still give a negative to over 11st Shutthefrontdoor has only run in 14 NH races and has gone 5 months since his last run. He will have to overcome the 11st barrier and he is only an 8 year old. There is enough there for me to avoid him like the plague. First Lieutenant has only the 11st barrier to overcome. He has won at Aintree. Best on trends are Mon Parrain Carlito Brigante Night In Milan Godsmejudge Al Co Across The Bay Portrait King Royale Knight A lot of them fall down on 1 negative |
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I know some people hate stats and think that stat merchants can't read form.
But in a race with 40 runners where form is sometimes hidden, a lot have been running over hurdles, and stamina is taken on trust for 1st time runners, I feel its my best way (important bit that - MY best way) to get the field down to a manageable size from a punting perspective. For example, I'm not saying a 7 year old can't win, what I am doing is looking at 40 runners and saying to myself, 'a 7 year old has not won it for 70 odd years, until one does I'm leaving them out of my equation'. So; Aged 8-12 (narrowed to 9-11 if required later) 19+ NH starts 10+ chases 3+ chase wins Max 1 win this season prior to weights announcement Won a race over 3M 1F+ Won a C1 or C2 race Won or placed in a chase with 15+ runners LTO |
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Page break nonsense
LTO |
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Surely an 8 year old carrying 11st 9 cant win?
Who you gonna call? |
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Surely a 7 year old has as good a chance as any, especially as they often win a different race over a shorter trip in another country? Oh no, they still don't even have a sniff.
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[i]coffeedodger 30 Mar 15 02:47
How to win as much as you like on the Grand National: 1) Lay Shutthefrontdoor, Balthazar King, Cause Of Causes, Unioniste, Merry King, Alvarado, Many Clouds, Spring Heeled and Soll at around 5/2. None of them has a hope in hell. Facts 30 Mar 15 07:55 Hope to see you back on here after the race, admitting you got it wrong ! |
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