Grand National
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Grand National Judo Style 2013
Grand National Judo Style 2013
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Replies: 101
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As I suspected.
Thank you for your honest answer(at last). |
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I passed over AE because of his damn fall 2 runs ago, I might have got on on the basis of your list JR but that you had completely lost the plot with QF, who failed every single national stat I have, and didn't really look into the others further. Interestingly those that pass my main system included all the first 4 home. If I'd combined with your spreadsheet analysis I'm sure I'd have cleaned up. Excellent tipping whatever ;)
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Ilnamar 01 Apr 13 01:12 Joined: 27 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 173 | Blogger: Ilnamar's blog
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them. And will be smugly dismissing anyone who suggests backing them. FYP just like to point out that the first 5 finishers all scored at least 9 out of 13, you mug |
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So the final conclusion is that the trends missed the winner for the 2nd year running but you backed it on the basis of a flutter.
Well done anyway  |
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Ha ha that is so funny seeing as your the dummy that put up Lost Glory as some sort of "nearly a trends horse".
If you had done the basic trends correct,you would have had the winner and second and probably third. |
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I thought that was consistent to be fair - it was a similar trends mock
Dog of a pick admittedly but consistent. You failed to pick 5 to beat it by the way |
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I was taking the micky with my picks against it,i put up 5 who i thought did not have a hope of winning to show how stupid your selection was.
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Have started building the spreadsheet today, 115 entries so lots of work to be done, will be working on this race regularly right up to the day
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Nice of you to come out of exile Judo.
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It worked - Mordin's stats added to his own intuition. Stop knocking it.
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just excited about the National Shocks mate, takes about 10 weeks of my year
usually worth it though, remember backing Auroras at 220+ in mid February thinking 'hmm just maybe' I remind everyone, if you compare the result of the race to the table in the OP, the first 5 home ALL scored 9 points on the spreadsheet |
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9 points or higher that is
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Yes it's still a great race Judo in spite of the tinkering with the fences. Will be a bit different with the weights this year, depending on what the handicapper does with Tidal Bay. Officially 168 but I reckon will give him 165 meaning horses under 140/141 will be out of the handicap proper. Anyway already on Triolo at 150, however it will fail your age stat but will take my chance. Good luck and look forward to the read.
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Dropped tidal bay 8/9 lbs last year.hopefully only 4 or 5 this year.
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Can't see the point of only dropping Tidal 3llbs
160-162 would still make it a huge task |
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The reason I think the handicapper will drop TB only 3lb is because he put him up 5lb for his last run. We'll have to wait and see as only guessing.
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first stage spreadsheet complete, only new info (plus the weights) to be added
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Any selection for the National based on previous stats are now irrelevant due to massive changes made to the race conditions. It is no longer the course/race it was. More akin to a normal park course now - in actuality easier, the . 'Fences' are like hurdles topped with a few feet of soft spruce. The race has been ruined IMO.
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I would still not bet on a 7 or 8 year old, or a horse that has not won a race with 10 or more runners in
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Interesting read judorick well done on doing so well in 2013 will read with interest your advice this year.
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I still got the 1-2 last year from 4 runners on the day so my approach clearly worked. There was a lot of reliance on assessing handicap marks as I hint at in the OP. The main point was to chop the field down to a manageable short list with a reasonable probability of containing the winner and then to hone in on the more likely winners - and a lot of that was down to judgement of the type of horse, age, handicap mark etc
I repeat: the first 5 finishers in 2013 ALL scored at least 9 on the spreadsheet so clearly those that had a traditional National prep still came to the fore despite the modifications to the fences there may be a chance that it all unravels this year but I cannot chuck a proven method away for no good reason |
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I think trainers will still prep horses in the same way so the stats are still valid.
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