Thanks Rick, had Tea For Three too, but only a very tiny bet on him.

Rick you are an absolute star!

Just heard all horses are ok. What a perfect result.

oh and Oscar Time was joint top rated on the spreadsheet initially but I dismissed him as a 12 yo, he was 4th

I was looking for the winner and to have big bets and I was right that T43 was not the winner

but if you look he does appear on my 'long' short list

I see I have won much more than I expected. I must be working my bets out incorrectly

Rick, I'm going out now. I'll pm you tomorrow and ask you to explain a few things to me, if you wouldn't mind.

Have a great evening and thanks again xx

Sorry im a bit late joining the party....THANKS judo fantastic work it pulled me outta the mire EXCELLENT work really looking foward to your next coup........

Bloody synthetics picking all these big priced winners
Excellent work and well rewarded for your efforts,Congratulations

Never a problem mate,Be well and have a great evening.

there was a lot of background knowledge and judgement and handicap assessment involved - hence dismissing Sunnyhillboy and Seabass who also were at the top of the spreadsheet - indeed Sunnyhillboy was joint top rated

thanks, was robbed last year, have not won as much as I would have last year but still very nice

Judo, well done, congrats, etc etc. But how come you didn't eliminate Auroras Encore?

From your post: "I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage."

Auroras Encore had raced in 23 chases before today. So, how come he made the cut? Fat finger syndrome?

Very well done judo!
I usually enjoy reading your thoughts which are obviously thoroughly researched.

Hate to p1ss on this "lovefest" bonfire and at the risk of further threats to have "arms and neck broken" but .......how eaxactly did Aurora Encore pass the "lightly raced" elimination stat ?

He's run 43 times, 23 over fences.

Cheers mate.

I realised after I'd posted that this had already been mentioned but after further delving the only horse in the whole race that had run more often was Always Waining.

Does it really matter that much. Whatever the logic, he posted up the horses as a bet, so fair enough for that.

As much as he comes across like he's never had an actual conversation with another human being face to face sometimes, you can't dispute that he recommended backing the winner at triple figure prices, and backed it himself at 200+. Well done Judo.

Joci and Judo clearly put a lot of effort into their selections, and, regardless of winning or losing, I'm always interested to see their thoughts. Always slightly surprised to see their methods getting stick.

Judo's analysis of Auroras was very good, well done, and enjoyed seeing Joci's trends for the main races at Aintree.

have to agree with Bolty.
Wd Rick on getting the winner and like others don't wish to rain on your parade. But surely your age trend clearly eliminates Aurora's Encore?
The write up on the horse doesn't explain why you left it in - and ruled out four others (including the 5th and 6th finishers) without any other consideration?

Stats and trends are all very well. But unless there is a reason behind the trend / stat,  they are pointless.

You eliminated an obvious candidate and near winner in T43 on a strict 2nd season chaser rule. This is a fair enough criteria, though the reason behind it as others pointed out earlier is probably more to do with experience gained over fences, not that it's running in the National less than two years after its chase debut.

well done judorick he ticked a lot of boxes fair to say any winner wouldnt tick every trend and yes he had had more than 15 chase starts and he hadnt run over hurdles this season but nick mordins 13 key trends these were the only two he didnt meet 6lb lower than his scottish national 2nd gave him a big chance on spring ground but sadly even though he was on my original shortlist in february i didnt bet him

Auroras Encore is 11 so fits the age bracket perfectly - 8 and younger, plus 12 and older were eliminated

I kept Quiscover in even though he had never won over 3 miles (placed in the Irish National was good enough for me) so clearly I was being flexible in my approach and you clearly need to be in approaching races like this

I would also point out that I was focosing on my top rated runners which were (from the OP):

Sunnyhillboy     11
Bostons Angel   11 - (NON runner)
Cappa Bleu        11
Oscar Time        11
Quiscover Fontaine  10.5
Seabass              10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore   10

And as I said I was against Sunnyhillboy with his bad prep and 10lb higher mark, against Seabass who I predicted would not be able to finish in front of Cappa Bleu, against Becauseicouldnt see because he had neither won at 3 miles nor placed in a National and against Oscar Time because he was 12

so that didn't leave too many at the top of my list and meant I had to keep AE onside. As I also said, I started backing him speculatively for a few quid right back in February so I couldn't realistically leave him out of calculations. I was grateful that PW tipped up Quiscover too as it helped me lay off plenty of liability.

Amazing that, having posted a short list of 4 that provided the first 2 home and a 120 BSP winner, you get grief.

Anyway, glad some people got on and thanks for the PMs people.

apologies judo, of course Aurora's was fine on your age stat.
But it simply didn't pass the "no of races" trend.