Grand National
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Grand National Analysis Judo Style 2013
Introduction
Back in February, when the weights were released, I built my usual 'Mordin Style' spreadsheet for the National and I have been updating it ever since as runners completed their preparations. I initially included the original trend of 'not French bred' but then also had a look at the same data with the 'French bred' column removed. It didn't make much difference except a couple moved up because they are French bred. With Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges both winning in recent years I think it was entirely reasonable to knock the French thing on the head.
I actually spent a lot of time throughout the period between the announcement of the weights and Cheltenham Festival doing several other things to help my ante post betting. I looked at each entrant and studied their lifetime career to see if I could spot ones which seem to have been aimed at the race from early in their career (and looking for markers that indicate that was always the plan) and I spent a lot of time analysing handicap performances to find horses whose OR underestimates their peak performance.
I've also been updating for non runners and new information as we've gone along and ended up with a spreadsheet that looks like this. The horses are marked out of 13. (there were others like The Package who scored highly but is now a non runner – they have been left out)
Top of the Spreadsheet
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
Balthazar King 9.5
Saint Are 9.5
Chicago Grey 9.5
Rare Bob 9.5
Imperial Commander 9
Big Fella Thanks 9
Teaforthree 9
Poker de Sivola 9
Lost Glory 8.5
Swing Bill 8.5
Backstage 8.5
On His Own 8.5
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them.
Eliminations Based on Key trends
Even at twenty runners the short list is far too long so I have applied some key trends to help cut it down to a more manageable size.
Firstly, I will eliminate all that are currently novices or raced as a novice in the previous season. This eliminates Saint Are and Teaforthree from the list and also picks up Colbert Station, Join Together and some others.
Becauseicouldntsee has failed both the tests for 'won at 3 miles' and the 'won at 3 miles 3 furlong OR placed 1,2,3,4 in a National' and that is enough to eliminate him.
I am going to be very strict on age and only consider backing horses aged 9, 10 or 11 which means I eliminate Lost Glory, Imperial Commander and Oscar Time fall outside this range
I have set a minimum handicap mark of 137 below which I eliminate all the runners so Backstage and Poker de Sivola are dismissed
I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage.
Final Short List
Sunnyhillboy
Boston's Angel
Cappa Bleu
Quiscover Fontaine
Seabass
Auroras Encore
Balthazar King
On His Own
Comments of the Short List Horses
Sunnyhillboy: was desperately unlucky not to win the race in 2012 and could well run very well again; however, off a 10lb higher mark and with a less than ideal preparation I doubt very much I will be backing him this year and I have not in the ante post market. 0Lbs in hand on Hcp analysis
Boston's Angel: a Grade 1 winner 3 times as a novice, placed at the Cheltenham Festival in the Cross Country this year. Considering he is joint top of the spreadsheet he is a huge price at 85. He definitely runs and is well worth having on your side. Has run 6lbs better than his OR in the past.
Cappa Bleu: a very strong candidate having finished 4th in the race last year and yet gets in on a 2lb lower mark. If you haven't I suggest you watch the race and look out for him being badly hampered and losing lots of ground and momentum during the race when avoiding a faller. Stayed on very well and I expect him to go very close. Certainly weighted to reverse form with the two that finished ahead last year. Excellent prep run showing his well being and OR some 9lb lower than peak effort.
Quiscover Fontaine: very interesting horse who ran 4th in the same Irish National (when just 7yo) as Sunnyhillboy in 2011 (which is what switched me on to SHB last year) and now 14lb better off for 4.5 lengths. Clearly been campaigned with the National in mind as no runs allowed that could have caused his mark to rise. Looks completely plotted up, ran in the race in 2012 when he fell at the 17th, approximately half way. Given how close he got to SHB in the Irish you would have he would have got quite close had he stood up. 11Lbs ahead of OR on hcp analysis.
Seabass: ran a cracker in last year's race and now runs off 5lb higher. Will probably run well again, OR 7lb lower than peak performance. Seems a bit obvious and I only have him in a small green
Auroras Encore: ran a very creditable second off 6lb higher in last year's Scottish National and if reproducing that effort would be dangerous. I have backed him ante post at 220 to 160 and he is still backable at current odds.
Balthazar King: been running well in Cross Country races, likes good ground and is a bold front runner. Likely to give a good account
On His Own: red hot favourite for the race, going well when falling in 2012, since won very nicely in ahurdle on only subsequent start. Very unusual to go into a National with only one run in 12 months and that over hurdles. He is very short in the betting for such a profile
Betting Advice
Unless you are already on at good odds I don't see there is any value in backing the favourite. Yes, he might have lots in hand however he is very short and I could not recommend him.
I was devastated when Sunnyhillboy got nutted on the line last year and I will be even more gutted if he wins this year. However, I really don't think he can win off 10lb higher with a poor prep and he cannot be recommended.
This leaves me with 6 to consider. Seabass did not really seem to see it out last year and is higher in the weights. He will surely struggle to confirm the form with Cappa Bleu and he is passed over.
Let's have a look at the current prices:
Boston's Angel : 90 / 100
Cappa Bleu : 13 / 13.5
Quiscover Fontaine : 70 / 90
Balthazar King: 26 / 27
Auroras Encore: 130 / 140
Clearly Cappa Bleu is the most strongly fancied in the market and I have no doubt he will give a tremendous run for your money. Make sure you have him onside.
However, I strongly believe that QUISCOVER FONTAINE represents massive value at the current price. I believe he has been prepared specifically for the race ever since running 4th in the Irish National. He is of course owned by JP McManus and I think it has been a long term plot. We know the form is outstandingly good because Sunnyhillboy (also owned by JP) went and hacked up at Cheltenham then was touched off in the National. Quiscover Fontaine is fully 14lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy for a 4 and a half length beating. I suspect there might well be an almighty plunge on the horse and my advice is to get as much on at the price as you can afford to lose and be prepared to back and lay it all the way in if the plunge starts. This would then allow you to green up.
I also recommend getting Boston's Angel into a very good green number as he is joint top rated on my spreadsheet yet is 90 to back. £50 would be winning you over £4400. Seems a massive price to me.
I would also get a small amount on Auroras Encore and Balthazar King as they won't cost too much.
Recommendation
Back QUISCOVER FONTAINE maximum stakes
Back BOSTON'S ANGEL half maximum stakes
Back Balthazar King, Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu moderate stakes so they give you a reasonable win
Introduction
Back in February, when the weights were released, I built my usual 'Mordin Style' spreadsheet for the National and I have been updating it ever since as runners completed their preparations. I initially included the original trend of 'not French bred' but then also had a look at the same data with the 'French bred' column removed. It didn't make much difference except a couple moved up because they are French bred. With Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges both winning in recent years I think it was entirely reasonable to knock the French thing on the head.
I actually spent a lot of time throughout the period between the announcement of the weights and Cheltenham Festival doing several other things to help my ante post betting. I looked at each entrant and studied their lifetime career to see if I could spot ones which seem to have been aimed at the race from early in their career (and looking for markers that indicate that was always the plan) and I spent a lot of time analysing handicap performances to find horses whose OR underestimates their peak performance.
I've also been updating for non runners and new information as we've gone along and ended up with a spreadsheet that looks like this. The horses are marked out of 13. (there were others like The Package who scored highly but is now a non runner – they have been left out)
Top of the Spreadsheet
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
Balthazar King 9.5
Saint Are 9.5
Chicago Grey 9.5
Rare Bob 9.5
Imperial Commander 9
Big Fella Thanks 9
Teaforthree 9
Poker de Sivola 9
Lost Glory 8.5
Swing Bill 8.5
Backstage 8.5
On His Own 8.5
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them.
Eliminations Based on Key trends
Even at twenty runners the short list is far too long so I have applied some key trends to help cut it down to a more manageable size.
Firstly, I will eliminate all that are currently novices or raced as a novice in the previous season. This eliminates Saint Are and Teaforthree from the list and also picks up Colbert Station, Join Together and some others.
Becauseicouldntsee has failed both the tests for 'won at 3 miles' and the 'won at 3 miles 3 furlong OR placed 1,2,3,4 in a National' and that is enough to eliminate him.
I am going to be very strict on age and only consider backing horses aged 9, 10 or 11 which means I eliminate Lost Glory, Imperial Commander and Oscar Time fall outside this range
I have set a minimum handicap mark of 137 below which I eliminate all the runners so Backstage and Poker de Sivola are dismissed
I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage.
Final Short List
Sunnyhillboy
Boston's Angel
Cappa Bleu
Quiscover Fontaine
Seabass
Auroras Encore
Balthazar King
On His Own
Comments of the Short List Horses
Sunnyhillboy: was desperately unlucky not to win the race in 2012 and could well run very well again; however, off a 10lb higher mark and with a less than ideal preparation I doubt very much I will be backing him this year and I have not in the ante post market. 0Lbs in hand on Hcp analysis
Boston's Angel: a Grade 1 winner 3 times as a novice, placed at the Cheltenham Festival in the Cross Country this year. Considering he is joint top of the spreadsheet he is a huge price at 85. He definitely runs and is well worth having on your side. Has run 6lbs better than his OR in the past.
Cappa Bleu: a very strong candidate having finished 4th in the race last year and yet gets in on a 2lb lower mark. If you haven't I suggest you watch the race and look out for him being badly hampered and losing lots of ground and momentum during the race when avoiding a faller. Stayed on very well and I expect him to go very close. Certainly weighted to reverse form with the two that finished ahead last year. Excellent prep run showing his well being and OR some 9lb lower than peak effort.
Quiscover Fontaine: very interesting horse who ran 4th in the same Irish National (when just 7yo) as Sunnyhillboy in 2011 (which is what switched me on to SHB last year) and now 14lb better off for 4.5 lengths. Clearly been campaigned with the National in mind as no runs allowed that could have caused his mark to rise. Looks completely plotted up, ran in the race in 2012 when he fell at the 17th, approximately half way. Given how close he got to SHB in the Irish you would have he would have got quite close had he stood up. 11Lbs ahead of OR on hcp analysis.
Seabass: ran a cracker in last year's race and now runs off 5lb higher. Will probably run well again, OR 7lb lower than peak performance. Seems a bit obvious and I only have him in a small green
Auroras Encore: ran a very creditable second off 6lb higher in last year's Scottish National and if reproducing that effort would be dangerous. I have backed him ante post at 220 to 160 and he is still backable at current odds.
Balthazar King: been running well in Cross Country races, likes good ground and is a bold front runner. Likely to give a good account
On His Own: red hot favourite for the race, going well when falling in 2012, since won very nicely in ahurdle on only subsequent start. Very unusual to go into a National with only one run in 12 months and that over hurdles. He is very short in the betting for such a profile
Betting Advice
Unless you are already on at good odds I don't see there is any value in backing the favourite. Yes, he might have lots in hand however he is very short and I could not recommend him.
I was devastated when Sunnyhillboy got nutted on the line last year and I will be even more gutted if he wins this year. However, I really don't think he can win off 10lb higher with a poor prep and he cannot be recommended.
This leaves me with 6 to consider. Seabass did not really seem to see it out last year and is higher in the weights. He will surely struggle to confirm the form with Cappa Bleu and he is passed over.
Let's have a look at the current prices:
Boston's Angel : 90 / 100
Cappa Bleu : 13 / 13.5
Quiscover Fontaine : 70 / 90
Balthazar King: 26 / 27
Auroras Encore: 130 / 140
Clearly Cappa Bleu is the most strongly fancied in the market and I have no doubt he will give a tremendous run for your money. Make sure you have him onside.
However, I strongly believe that QUISCOVER FONTAINE represents massive value at the current price. I believe he has been prepared specifically for the race ever since running 4th in the Irish National. He is of course owned by JP McManus and I think it has been a long term plot. We know the form is outstandingly good because Sunnyhillboy (also owned by JP) went and hacked up at Cheltenham then was touched off in the National. Quiscover Fontaine is fully 14lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy for a 4 and a half length beating. I suspect there might well be an almighty plunge on the horse and my advice is to get as much on at the price as you can afford to lose and be prepared to back and lay it all the way in if the plunge starts. This would then allow you to green up.
I also recommend getting Boston's Angel into a very good green number as he is joint top rated on my spreadsheet yet is 90 to back. £50 would be winning you over £4400. Seems a massive price to me.
I would also get a small amount on Auroras Encore and Balthazar King as they won't cost too much.
Recommendation
Back QUISCOVER FONTAINE maximum stakes
Back BOSTON'S ANGEL half maximum stakes
Back Balthazar King, Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu moderate stakes so they give you a reasonable win
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Replies: 101
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Interesting read judo, cheers.
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I wondered if it was you Judo on the other place! Nice write up. Completely at odds with my evaluation, but wouldn't it be a boring place if everyone had the same opinion.
Good luck. |
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thing is JOCI this is a PROVEN method that has worked many times including short listing Mon Mome, how many years have you applied your method to the National mate?
the novices and second season chasers you have selected are instant dismissals for me, they rarely win |
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Fair enough, but this puts me off Quiscover Fontaine:
1 not in the right weight range 2 doesn't have the requisite handicap chase profile 3 not in the right OR range 4 French bred - ok, there have been a couple of recent winners, but that doesn't represent a 'sea-change' for me 5 been unplaced on his last 5 or so runs 6 not won a listed / graded chase or a 'high value' chase - is he classy enough? 7 not won over 3 miles + 8 has not been running to the 'expected' RPR level in his recent runs 9 hasn't won in a 'large field' chase 10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f 11 has fallen in 2 out of his last 9 races The horse just seems to have so many negative to overcome. |
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I;m on at 120/1 though which makes up for it. A lot of what you say is easily forgiven once you see what they have done since he ran 4th in the Irish National. I have no doubt if Willie Mullins was desperate to get a win at 3 miles into him that they could have found any number of races. But they chose not to expose him, so they have kept him deliberately at shorter distances and hurdles so as to not allow the handicapper to put him up. Do you deny the form with Sunnyhillboy is strong? 14lb better for 4.5 lengths with a horse that hacked up at Cheltenham and got beat a nose in the National. 120/1??????????
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No I don't deny the form with SHB. 120/1 allows you plenty of leeway to back and lay admittedly. Unlikely winner for me though.
If he wins, will send you a bottle of your tipple! |
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Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them. And will be smugly dismissing anyone who suggests backing them.
FYP |
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Ironic that Teaforthree has 10 Chases under rules , has never fallen, has won over 4 miles at the Chelteham festival, runner up in the Welsh National yet the stats point to a horse that has fallen twice, has 10 Chases under rules and has never won beyond 20 furlongs.
Which horse out of the two has the proven stamina and has jumped the most fences? and which one looks the safer jumper? and which one has proven himself to be 10lb superior? Now then, which one has been crossed off the list? It`s a strange world. |
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Teaforthree was in my top 20 but I am choosing to dismiss - not only because he was a novice last year but because of his handicap mark which is ridiculous 151 is way too high. Look at how far he got beat in the Hennessey off 144. He gets 7lb from Imperial Commander (also on list), imagine what IC would have done in a Hennessey off 151. No comparison. Teaforthree should be giving about 3lbs to Harry the Viking by my estimation and he;s giving 11
notice you don't mention price |
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nice write up judo...as always between yourself and joci you both put a lot of effort in so fair play to you.
well really think quiscover is underestimated myself at the odds and was hard on the snaffle when he tipped up last year having jumped well till that point... he has been plotted up again by shrewd connections with the mark well and truly preserved and at least in this race the handbrake will be released as has been firmly on in all his races since the race last year... |
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Good write up judo.
I let sentimentality get in the way of my selections which helped last year. My 5 main bets are Imperial Commander Across The Bay Joncol Bostons Angel Forpadydeplasterer With little plays on Lion Na Bearnai The Rainbow Hunter Major Malarkey. |
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Bostons Angel out.
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Really enjoyed your write up, Rick
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Alkeyhole, where have you seen that Bostons Angel is out?
I can't find anything. |
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Typical had a decent bet on bostons last night,now a n/r bet it on here instead of the bookies hey ho.its defo a n/r makbe-diva just announced on atr.....
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From ATR
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity." |
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From ATR
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity." |
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Thanks Guys
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7 not won over 3 miles +
10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f Easy for me to knock a bet when i havent done a fraction as much research but doesnt sound like a national winner to me at any price. Good luck though |
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Last years fallers won't be winni g this year.
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Look at how far he (Teaforthree) got beat in the Hennessey off 144.
Staying on though Jud and imagine another mile. QUISCOVER FONTAINE is the price he is because he has never shown any stamina unless of course you think kept on one pace in a slowly run Irish Grand National cuts the mustard. If you look at the bigger priced winners in the past 20 years then you soon see that Mon Mome, Silver Birch, Royal Athlete..had all won beyond 3 miles and had proven stamina. These stats are striking. |
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Good write up Judo - thanks. Have done Rare Bob, Auroras Encore, Imperial Commander and Lost Glory. All in your long shortlist plus a couple of others who look unlikely to get in.
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Auroras Encore has run in 23 chases so according to your methodology you should have eliminated him, shouldn't you?
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James you have been a member for 10 years yet this is your first forum reply.
Man you have discipline. |
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Or maybe he's just very shy.
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Well spotted. Never bothered looking at the forum until now but seeing as I've just doubled my post count, am kind of enjoying it, and have such a lot of ground to make up, maybe I should become a regular.
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Let somebody else have a chance!
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FWIW I think Quiscover Fontaine is an interesting horse at the price.
But what makes anyone predict that there will be 'an almighty plunge' when he went off at 50/1 / 96.86BSP in last years race? Get on 'as much as you can afford to lose'? Eh, no thanks. Also, things like being very strict on age are silly. That's like the way people used to knock French breds. Pure trends people do this without any great reason behind it. Silly. |
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126/1 BFSP, WD !, must have been quite a reasonable win
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first two finishers in the final short list of 4 (Boston's Angel did not run)
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Well done Judorick, followed you in at 110 thanks
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Backed it because of this thread at 130. Thanks a lot
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Well done on Auroras Encore!
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nice!! well done lads
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had the first two JOCI
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I backed Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu, too, thanks to Rick!
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wd sue!
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cheers rick.bet you enjoyed that.gave it everyone. Party Time
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cool mate!! hope you picked up a decent chunk
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