Grand National
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JOCI Club's Aintree Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's Aintree Festival Trends Analysis
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Sefton
At Fishers Cross21 100% Master Of The Sea23 89% Our Vinnie21 74% Road To Riches117 70% 8 Uxizandre26 70% 2 Kris Cross27 70% Yesyoucan46 68% 5 Imperial Leader27 56% Gevrey Chambertin21 55% Just A Par54 52% 3 Buachaill Alainn112 41% Selection: At Fishers Cross @ 2.6 |
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4:50 Salubrious
5:25 Molly's A Diva |
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Tip for arrogant rude ****s: If it says "Trends Analysis" in the topic title and you don't like reading trends analysis type of stuff, DON'T CLICK ON IT! No need to be so damned rude either, if you happen upon similar analysis by accident just move on instead of acting like knuckle-draggers.
Joci, your posts and Judo's are the first I look for when I come on here, thanks again for sharing your efforts. |
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If anyone was wondering, it said t -osse-rs
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I'm not bothered by the criticism. The trends have their uses in pinpointing the horses that are statistically the most likely winners, but it's not foolproof by any means. It can be useful sometimes in throwing up horses that are largely unconsidered in the market. I'll give Golden Chieftain and Medinas (from Cheltenham) as two such examples that came out top of the ratings. Also, horses like Divine Intavention (2nd at 50/1 in Cheltenham Foxhunters) and Tartan Snow in the Aintree Foxhunters (4th top rated and won at 100/1 - though sadly unbacked by me).
However, for every example like those above, you'll get your Oiseau de Nuit type results (close to being my lowest rated in that race). Let's hope for a few more winners today. |
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When you're consistently backing horses at double figure prices you don't need a high strike rate. And the days when hit 2 or 3 at decent prices will more than make up for the occasional duck egg.
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Joci - interesting At Fishers Cross analysis (100%), 4 of the last 5 winners of this race bypassed Cheltenham.
I was very keen on Our Vinnie but is now a NR |
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landed me a nice trble. Thanks JOCI.
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Nice one - got another couple of winners today and the forecast in the Melling Chase. In fact I bet as a tricast Sprinter- Cue Card-Flemenstar which came in but when I went to collect was told it wasnt a tricast race and only got paid on the forecast.
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Mersey Novices Hurdle
Up And Go 88% Dodging Bullets 72% Eduard 72% Seefood 69% Utopie Des Bordes 57% Morning Royalty 46% Ubak 40% Vasco D´Ycy 13% Selection: Up And Go @ 2.88 |
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Great stuff Joci
I reckon you should add the price into the equation, would be interesting to see. ps i know we can do it. |
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Can you clarify what you mean regarding the price?
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Maghull Novices Chase
Alderwood 80% Overturn 71% Baily Green 69% Sire De Grugy 62% Marshal Zhukov 52% Viva Colonia 41% Special Tiara 31% Selection: Alderwood @ 3.45 |
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your % times the odds, ie 88% x 1.88. (up&go)
its probably a bad idea but it might show some outsiders but will ruin the favs. forget it. |
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Liverpool Hurdle
Solwhit 92% Celestial Halo 61% Smad Place 60% Grands Crus 42% Holywell 40% Medinas 40% Attaglance 37% American Spin 31% Bear´s Affair 28% Won In The Dark 22% Any Given Day 11% Oscara Dara 11% African Gold 10% Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45 Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings. |
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The Grand National
Seabass42 83% Chicago Grey46 79% Balthazar King141 75% Teaforthree49 74% Sunnyhillboy84 74% Across The Bay49 74% Ballabriggs35 72% On His Own46 72% Colbert Station62 70% Roberto Goldback42 68% Cappa Bleu49 68% Joncol56 68% Imperial Commander70 66% Rare Bob27 65% Big Fella Thanks35 64% Oscar Time27 64% Forpadydeplasterer34 60% Always Waining28 60% Quel Esprit56 59% Treacle21 58% Weird Al56 58% Becauseicouldntsee23 56% Auroras Encore35 56% What A Friend42 56% Any Currency23 55% Swing Bill23 54% Tatenen22 52% Mumbles Head105 52% Mr Moonshine35 51% Saint Are23 50% Major Malarkey21 50% The Rainbow Hunter49 49% Viking Blond49 46% Join Together35 45% Ninetieth Minute21 39% Tarquinius27 37% Quiscover Fontaine37 36% Soll28 36% Harry The Viking23 35% Lost Glory175 34% Have backed several in the race: Seabass @ 15 Chicago Grey @ 20 Sunnyhillboy @ 27 Across The Bay @ 36 (now 50  )Rare Bob @ 44 Need to look at Teaforthree & Balthazar King tomorrow, and will probably have something on them too. |
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Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings.
not really when you think about it  agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it  |
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hope your rite about alderwood mate
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African Gold 10% lol, I strongly fancy that too. Really think the novices are good this year and the 3 mile older brigade are not so good.
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alleged22 05 Apr 13 23:20
Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings. not really when you think about it Wink agree with alderwood i,ll be max betting on it Cool It's unusul to get ahorse so far ahead of the rest on trends...that's all I was saying. Might not win of course. At Fishers Cross was a 100% trends horse and won, Zarkandar was 85% and well clear, but neither had as big a gap between themselves and the next highest rated compared with Solwhit. Let the trends make a mug of me. |
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JOCI - I am a trends fan and I really appreciate your data. I use it all the time as guidance to shorten my short lists and has served me well. One of my other "rules" is I am a big Jonjo fan in 3m+ Handicap Chases so the fact you have LOST GLORY bottom of your trends causes me angst and gives me a tough decision to make. I am going with Jonjo over Joci for this one. Good luck mate. And keep them stats coming and ignore the negative naysayers. Cheers.
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Liverpool Hurdle
Solwhit 92% Celestial Halo 61% Smad Place 60% Grands Crus 42% Holywell 40% Medinas 40% Attaglance 37% American Spin 31% Bear´s Affair 28% Won In The Dark 22% Any Given Day 11% Oscara Dara 11% African Gold 10% Selection: Solwhit @ 3.45 Interesting that Solwhit is streets ahead on the ratings. And din't he win like it! |
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boooooooommmmmmmmmmm
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mcains horses so out of form
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Trends took a hammering on the first 2 races though.
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