Grand National
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23 Mar 13
17:07
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11 Jan 12
Wondering if there was a new hint that he might run? In to 32 from 40 on here this afternoon.
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There is a comment in today's RP saying he is as fresh as a daisy and that they want to give him a two mile racecourse gallop.
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Thanks Sawyer, probably the reason, if was a decision then I think there'd be a bigger move.
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33/1 looks a big price which will disappear quickly if a confirmed runner. Worth backing now if you fancy him esp with NRNB available.
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I can't get on nrnb at that price, is only Hills and Paddy and they aren't options for me. Got my nephew to put a small bet on for me at VC 33/1 NRFB but he wouldn't put much on as he likes to bet himself and doesn't want accounts closing. I backed on here at 40 and 42 and traded out at 32 and 34 so have a nice bit of green next to him there. All to no avail if they go for the bowl, which to be fair is a good race for old timers historically.
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No longer in the Hills market.
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With the generosity of the handicapper I see the National as a Grand opportunity for a last hurrah but I don't think he'll run.
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there is £230 up @38 wanting to back it on here, seems a fair bit so i take it that he isnt going to be announced a NR in the near future.
reckon the 5 day dec stage will be more informative |
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He is back in the Hills market this morning with his price cut from 33/1 into 25/1
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That's good to hear. Fingers crossed. I'm sure the horse has one more glorious day in him and hope he gets the opportunity.
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Price well down now after a positive hint in today's RP? I really want him to run now.
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Terrible decision to run him in this top weight.
Was his comeback run really that good. Cape Tribulation (a good handicapper) beat him and was carrying 6lbs more than IC. Should be running in the Bowl then maybe the Whitbread (or whatever it is called now). |
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Why is the weight such a problem, have horses got smaller since Suny Bay, Red Rum, L'Escargot used to carry 12st round? If he can't compete in this off 158 how could he compete in the bowl?
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I've a different view. Great run to be second on his comeback run, thirty six lengths clear of the third when far from fully fit. Assuming he avoids the bounce then he's a player - an 11 week layoff will hopefully be long enough, it's about the same gap as between the King George and the Gold Cup. For a horse rated 185 at his peak to be in off 158 means he's surely thrown in, big and strong enough to carry top weight, doesn't look like he's regressed 2 stone + to me.
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A different view from ML, not tlu!
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Looks a runner with George confirming O'Regan for BFT. Makes the race for me in terms of keeping weights down for a few of the more fancied runners. Will run well without winning. Can do without any more Gold Cup winners having accidents though.
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Class horse a player in my opinion.
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I agree with the real deal. Will be fresh as well, which has always suited him. My main bet of the race if he makes it.
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Sam Twiston Davies put a photo on twitter yesterday and they were giving IC a school over a National fence they had built
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Twiston-Davies told Racing UK: "It looks like he will run in the National unless it's very deep. That's the plan."
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Game on!
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Good news, glad I took the 33/1 with Hills on Monday now 16/1.
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Not even entered in the Bowl!
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Not even entered in the Bowl!
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Right mad prediction time ......
I actually think that he could go off FAV for next weeks race. as above hes not entered in the Bowl, its well documented about him being 'well in' on his old Gold Cup winning form. All it needs is NTD to give a positive bulletin in the run up to the race then the press could latch onto it and the price will shorten up even more. Thoughts anyone and is there a market for this yet ? |
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Yes so good I seem to have said it twice... The only caveat now is he won't run if it did turn into a bog. NTD says "If we get something like good to soft we’d be over the moon." With the lack of forecast rain and new watering policy looks very, very likely to be just the soft side of good :) Favourite, maybe not seeing some of the hype for OHO? Second favourite, maybe?
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Apologies, was the owner's spokesperson I quoted there not NTD, the excitement got the better of me :)
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Gutted I missed the 33 NRNB but I'm on at 20s, I've always thought the race would suit him, and he's very well handicapped.
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It was a kind offer from Hills when plans were uncertain as the betfair price was about the same at the time. Fingers crossed he stays sound as I think he has a great chance. I see Cunningham crabbed him in his latest Q&A session. He raised the point about good runs being followed by klunkers, but that's happened with gaps of six weeks or less. Should be OK this time and in any case they'd gone easy on him before the Argento. Cunners obviously hasn't read the first missive in the Horse Antepost 'bobby dazzler' thread which has stood the test of time.
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I've never seen that Bobby Dazzler thread before! Usually only go on the Cheltenham forum, would have loved to have been part of that argument, remember seeming to be solo in fancying him for the Gold Cup on the Cheltenham forum threads grr. Might not have laid off so much if I'd read that lot but was still by far the biggest win of my life so hey ho.
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The Commander misses the Bowl as the ground will be too quick! So it's the Big One or wait until Punchestown, decision to be made when connections see the 5 day decs. Not sure why they want to see who is absent, a bit strange, but it sounds to me that NTD is mad keen for Aintree, saying he's three stone well-in on his Gold Cup win (
 ) whereas the owners are apparently not yet 100% committed. |
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He's officially 27lbs well in on his Gold Cup win, about 30lbs on time based ratings. So three stone is an exaggeration
 He's a long striding horse so will love the galloping track, an excellent jumper as long as he is fresh and the way he finished his Gold Cup suggests he will stay. Just a question of adapting to the different fences and how far he has deteriorated at age 12. Lightly raced and Irish bred you would think not by as much as 27lbs! The weight doesn't worry me, weight stats are already going out of the window with the compressed handicap, if a gold cup placed horse can win with 11-6 then I can see no reason why one of the highest rated gold cup winners since Arkle cannot carry 11-10! To really put it into perspective, he is set to give 4lbs to Seabass. 4lbs... |
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I take it you fancy him a bit thieves
 The magic of the National, you just can't beat it, it is the best! |
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When the weights came out and everyone was "ooh Tidal Bay is 7lbs well in" I was looking at Imperial Commander on 158 and not believing my eyes. At the time though I dismissed him as would have been way too quick after the Gold Cup!
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You've convinced me with your enthusiasm
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Admittedly not much recent form to go on but handicap mark looks about right if Cape's official OR is correct. He's best fresh so he probably gave his running.
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So you don't have him "three stone" ahead then GC? I remember feeling similarly confident to thieves over Rough Quest back in 96, but he was only carrying 10-7 after a great Gold Cup run... but I am swayed by his enthusiasm for IC even with 11-10!
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3 stone ahead 3 years ago! But he's 12 and had alot of injury problems. I think he'll be pulled up, that's my gut feeling. However it's not like he's a short priced favourite so I can see why people are backing him.
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just posted this on another thread
just had a look at Mon Mome's GN result. Cloudy Lane at topweight off 158 that day, the same as Imperial Commander this year !!!!!!! really !!!! How did CL get that compared to IC ? |
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Won lot of hcaps,unlike IC
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