Imperial Commander - any news?

There is a comment in today's RP saying he is as fresh as a daisy and that they want to give him a two mile racecourse gallop.

Thanks Sawyer, probably the reason, if was a decision then I think there'd be a bigger move.

33/1 looks a big price which will disappear quickly if a confirmed runner. Worth backing now if you fancy him esp with NRNB available.

I can't get on nrnb at that price, is only Hills and Paddy and they aren't options for me.  Got my nephew to put a small bet on for me at VC 33/1 NRFB but he wouldn't put much on as he likes to bet himself and doesn't want accounts closing.  I backed on here at 40 and 42 and traded out at 32 and 34 so have a nice bit of green next to him there.  All to no avail if they go for the bowl, which to be fair is a good race for old timers historically.

No longer in the Hills market.

With the generosity of the handicapper I see the National as a Grand opportunity for a last hurrah but I don't think he'll run.

there is £230 up @38 wanting to back it on here, seems a fair bit so i take it that he isnt going to be announced a NR in the near future.
reckon the 5 day dec stage will be more informative

He is back in the Hills market this morning with his price cut from 33/1 into 25/1

That's good to hear. Fingers crossed. I'm sure the horse has one more glorious day in him and hope he gets the opportunity.

Price well down now after a positive hint in today's RP?  I really want him to run now.

Terrible decision to run him in this top weight.

Was his comeback run really that good. Cape Tribulation (a good handicapper) beat him and was carrying 6lbs more than IC.

Should be running in the Bowl then maybe the Whitbread (or whatever it is called now).

Why is the weight such a problem, have horses got smaller since Suny Bay, Red Rum, L'Escargot used to carry 12st round?  If he can't compete in this off 158 how could he compete in the bowl?

I've a different view. Great run to be second on his comeback run, thirty six lengths clear of the third when far from fully fit. Assuming he avoids the bounce then he's a player - an 11 week layoff will hopefully be long enough, it's about the same gap as between the King George and the Gold Cup. For a horse rated 185 at his peak to be in off 158 means he's surely thrown in, big and strong enough to carry top weight, doesn't look like he's regressed 2 stone + to me.

A different view from ML, not tlu!

Looks a runner with George confirming O'Regan for BFT.   Makes the race for me in terms of keeping weights down for a few of the more fancied runners.  Will run well without winning.  Can do without any more Gold Cup winners having accidents though.

Class horse a player in my opinion.

I agree with the real deal. Will be fresh as well, which has always suited him. My main bet of the race if he makes it.

Sam Twiston Davies put a photo on twitter yesterday and they were giving IC a school over a National fence they had built

Twiston-Davies told Racing UK: "It looks like he will run in the National unless it's very deep. That's the plan."

Game on!

Good news, glad I took the 33/1 with Hills on Monday now 16/1.

Not even entered in the Bowl!

Not even entered in the Bowl!

Right mad prediction time ......

I actually think that he could go off FAV for next weeks race.

as above hes not entered in the Bowl, its well documented about him being 'well in' on his old Gold Cup winning form.
All it needs is NTD to give a positive bulletin in the run up to the race then the press could latch onto it and the price will shorten up even more.

Thoughts anyone and is there a market for this yet ?

Yes so good I seem to have said it twice...  The only caveat now is he won't run if it did turn into a bog.  NTD says "If we get something like good to soft we’d be over the moon." With the lack of forecast rain and new watering policy looks very, very likely to be just the soft side of good :)  Favourite, maybe not seeing some of the hype for OHO?  Second favourite, maybe?

Apologies, was the owner's spokesperson I quoted there not NTD, the excitement got the better of me :)

Gutted I missed the 33 NRNB but I'm on at 20s, I've always thought the race would suit him, and he's very well handicapped.

It was a kind offer from Hills when plans were uncertain as the betfair price was about the same at the time. Fingers crossed he stays sound as I think he has a great chance. I see Cunningham crabbed him in his latest Q&A session. He raised the point about good runs being followed by klunkers, but that's happened with gaps of six weeks or less. Should be OK this time and in any case they'd gone easy on him before the Argento. Cunners obviously hasn't read the first missive in the Horse Antepost 'bobby dazzler' thread which has stood the test of time.

I've never seen that Bobby Dazzler thread before!  Usually only go on the Cheltenham forum, would have loved to have been part of that argument, remember seeming to be solo in fancying him for the Gold Cup on the Cheltenham forum threads grr.  Might not have laid off so much if I'd read that lot but was still by far the biggest win of my life so hey ho.

The Commander misses the Bowl as the ground will be too quick! So it's the Big One or wait until Punchestown, decision to be made when connections see the 5 day decs. Not sure why they want to see who is absent, a bit strange, but it sounds to me that NTD is mad keen for Aintree, saying he's three stone well-in on his Gold Cup win () whereas the owners are apparently not yet 100% committed.

He's officially 27lbs well in on his Gold Cup win, about 30lbs on time based ratings.  So three stone is an exaggeration   He's a long striding horse so will love the galloping track, an excellent jumper as long as he is fresh and the way he finished his Gold Cup suggests he will stay.  Just a question of adapting to the different fences and how far he has deteriorated at age 12. Lightly raced and Irish bred you would think not by as much as 27lbs!  The weight doesn't worry me, weight stats are already going out of the window with the compressed handicap, if a gold cup placed horse can win with 11-6 then I can see no reason why one of the highest rated gold cup winners since Arkle cannot carry 11-10!   To really put it into perspective, he is set to give 4lbs to Seabass.  4lbs...

I take it you fancy him a bit thieves The magic of the National, you just can't beat it, it is the best!

When the weights came out and everyone was "ooh Tidal Bay is 7lbs well in" I was looking at Imperial Commander on 158 and not believing my eyes. At the time though I dismissed him as would have been way too quick after the Gold Cup!

You've convinced me with your enthusiasm

Admittedly not much recent form to go on but handicap mark looks about right if Cape's official OR is correct. He's best fresh so he probably gave his running.

So you don't have him "three stone" ahead then GC? I remember feeling similarly confident to thieves over Rough Quest back in 96, but he was only carrying 10-7 after a great Gold Cup run... but I am swayed by his enthusiasm for IC even with 11-10!

3 stone ahead 3 years ago! But he's 12 and had alot of injury problems. I think he'll be pulled up, that's my gut feeling. However it's not like he's a short priced favourite so I can see why people are backing him.

just posted this on another thread


just had a look at Mon Mome's GN result.
Cloudy Lane at topweight off 158 that day, the same as Imperial Commander this year !!!!!!!  really !!!! 

How did CL get that compared to IC ?

Won lot of hcaps,unlike IC

Imperial commander beat denman in the gold cup....he seemed to like hcaps too!!

Judge him on how good he is now,not three years ago

The run against cape tribulation shows he retains a reasonable level of ability imo

Some tentative stuff here.. but

Mon Mome had shown enough to be fav for Welsh National, the best guide for the GN. He did run poorly though.
Venetia Williams stable was not in great form at that time.
Venetia's stable came to life out of the blue with some great runs at the Cheltenham festival.
Mon Mome was hampered three times (once badly) in the previous national but finished 12th.
He ran well after his victory the following year in the Gold Cup (third) to confirm he was a decent class horse.
He was probably not going to win but was going ok in 9th in subsequent national when falling.

Imo he should never have been 100/1 sp or 220 on here when he won.

Am I biased- Yes!!

I suppose the fact he has less than a 2 week break before the WN could explain his poor run in it when he was favourite. I still think 148 looked high but if trainer was on fire than maybe not so. He had showed a lot more staying form then ATB has though and wasn't beaten nearly as far.

Cape Tribulation revels in testing conditions, he basically acted better than any horse in the Cotswold Chase added to his solid amount of ability he won the race. Imperial Commander travelled and jumped like the class horse and ran very well in defeat. You can look at it two ways, one is it was disappointing that he couldn't get the job done in receipt of 6 lbs from Cape Trib the other is if you consider the above factors and even take out Cape Trib who is a improving horse who as stated loved the conditions, then Imperial Commander would have beaten Hunt Ball by 36 lengths - people would then be going over the top about how much ability he retains and would already be a single figure price. As it is, I think 20/1 is a very fair price for a big horse who is built to carry the weight in what looks a poor handicap. Even if he gets pulled up at least at 20/1 people can think well i backed the best horse to have run in the race in decades - a top weight will win this race again and Imperial Commander fits the bill

You know even though I feel he may be pulled up I think I will end up backing him as I would kick myself if he won.

Agree he might not take to it, or might go wrong and might pull up.  The flat galloping track makes injury less likely though and he is the type of horse you could imagine reveling in it.  It isn't just sentiment talking with me, I genuinely fancy him to do this.  If he doesn't well, he owes me nothing and I will remain a loyal fan of the fastest Gold Cup winner since Top Speed began :)

Who was the last horse to have had one run in the last 2 years and win the National ?
I cant remember any horse doing that.

Mely Moss came closest in recent times - won Aintree Foxhunters 1999 after almost year off, next run was 2nd to Papillon in 2000 GN .... but many stats against IC including age. Can see him pulling up around 2nd Canal Turn.

Yes,great training performance,very nearly had it away.
Egerton trained it.

This race is a lottery, ok fences smaller, etc etc blah blah blah but 40 horses all going to the first with another 29 to jump 3 of which a horse would (unless ran in it previously) never have experienced before and given 4 and a half miles round a flat track you can only write off about 10 of them! In fact no, sod that, with the sp's of recent past winners, any of the 40 can! Ok, not likely but all it will take is the the more favored horses to get wiped out one by one for another Mon Mome style of winner at 100/1+!

But i will still have a go at it, nothing at all wrong with the odd sweep stake at work or if it is your cup of tea about 10-11 bets in the race, it is the best horse racing spectacle in the world after all!

JUST PRAY THEY ALL MAKE IT ROUND IN ONE PIECE WITH NO FATALITIES ANYMORE PLEASE GOD ! ! !

Horses that will be running for me are (main bets)

COLBERT STATION
CHICAGO GREY
IMPERIAL COMMANDER
BALTHAZAR KING

Already backed On his Own, T43.

Looking to add, and have much smaller bets on and staked according to price to secure most profit Seabass, cappa, JOIN TOGETHER, ALWAYS WAINING, TREACLE, Rare bob, Forpady. All each way of course with 5 places and b.o.g, not that it matters in a race like this! MORNING PRICE MUST BE TAKEN, wonder if sp over round will actually be UNDER 150% this year eh lads/lasses?

I will add a couple more to that, mainly to try and field all bases, i.e if markets guides in morning etc, anything that can be traded back on here etc i think its a lottery, but it is a wonderful spectacle as already said and just love that winning feeling, when you know a decent amount of profit has been made!

I can't see the point of picking half the field. Cowards die many times before their actual deaths.

Some people prefer the 'sweepstake' approach, after all, dont matter how much knowledge you have on racing with the grand national, picking just one or two out you are using a sweepstake approach imo, or you like to choose a few to run for you does it though? It's still a great race!

Paul Costello, who manages the owning Our Friends In The North syndicate, said: "We're 100% going for the National now. "He's in great shape and we schooled him over the National fences last week. He's telling us he wants to go for it, and that's what we shall do. We've had so many disappointments this season, we just wanted to take our time and make sure everyone was on the same page - there was no need to make the decision too soon and hopefully he'll do us proud. It would take a miracle for the ground not to be decent at the weekend so it's all systems go."

Happy news :)