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JOCI Club's 2013 Grand National Trends Analysis

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Replies: 73
By:
judorick
When: 24 Mar 13 19:56
FINE

back what you want, they are no hopers for me
By:
laynplay
When: 24 Mar 13 20:01
so what are your fancies then judo ?
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 24 Mar 13 20:12
Not so keen Prince de Beauchene, his preparation looks light and he fails my stamina test profile.  I don't use the 3m+ chase win stat as is totally useless.  53 of the 57 horses left in meet it this year!  I have an alternative assessment which has been basically unchanged for over 2 decades and is based on the tipping point for stamina being 3m 2f, something I've long maintained. Nine of the last 10 winners passed it (all except Monty's Pass) and only 23 of the 57 horses meet it this time.  Prince de B, On His Own and Colbert S all miss this key stat this time and add in On His Own and Colbert S's inexperience and the unusually light preparations of OHO and PDB and you have 3 horses at the front of the market that I couldn't touch.
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 24 Mar 13 20:19
Not keen on Rare Bob either, doesn't have the level of form I require at 26f+ he also marginally fails another stat, most National winners haven't fallen or unseated rider, other than in the National itself, for at least 2 years including all the last 10.  But as his UR was very nearly 2 years ago, and he's had plenty of runs since, I'd be prepared to ignore that.
By:
laynplay
When: 24 Mar 13 20:27
thats interesting thieveslikeus ...I think it could be particularly relevent this year....something you may or may not find useful...I have manually gone through the past ten years results and researched head gear from the last 11 runnings.
visored runners 0-7...0 top 5 finishes
tongue tie 1-53... 3 top 5 finishes
blinkers 1-42...2 top 5 finishes
cheek pieces 0-43...2 top 5 finishes

so 2 horses won from 140 that carried some sort of headgear...there have been 439 runners in that time so you would
expect the runners with headgear to win around 1 in 3 times...its actually
only 2 from 11 so I would want to avoid those with headgear personally.
By:
laynplay
When: 24 Mar 13 20:29
which ones are you looking to bet then thieveslikeus ?
By:
fivebagken
When: 24 Mar 13 20:31
judorick 24 Mar 13 18:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 13,349 | Blogger: judorick's blog
FINE

back what you want, they are no hopers for me

LaughLaughLaughLaugh

This guy is just brilliant! Is he for real?
By:
laynplay
When: 24 Mar 13 20:32
you read my mind fivebagken...rattle out of pram or what Laugh.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 24 Mar 13 20:37
After applying three further trends, here are my revised ratings:

Seabass42     82%
Sunnyhillboy84     77%
Across The Bay49     77%
Chicago Grey46     75%
Ballabriggs35     75%

Teaforthree49     74%
Balthazar King141     74%
Lion Na Bearnai126     73%
Quinz42     71%
On His Own46     71%
Roberto Goldback42     70%
Colbert Station62     70%
Tofino Bay24     69%
Cappa Bleu49     67%
Joncol56     66%
Oscar Time27     66%
Prince De Beauchene42     66%
Bostons Angel23     64%
Beshabar497     64%
Rare Bob27     63%
Big Fella Thanks35     63%
Forpadydeplasterer34     62%
Imperial Commander70     61%
Bob Lingo21    61%
Always Waining28     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     58%
Treacle21    57%
Weird Al56     56%
Magnanimity58     55%
Auroras Encore35     55%
Tatenen22     54%
What A Friend42     54%
Any Currency23     54%
Quel Esprit56     54%
Swing Bill23     52%
Backstage22     49%
Saint Are23     48%
Major Malarkey21    48%
Romanesco23     47%
The Rainbow Hunter49     47%
Mumbles Head105     47%
Mortimers Cross35     46%
Join Together35     46%
Poker De Sivola119     46%
Mr Moonshine35     46%
Pentiffic65     43%
Gullible Gordon91     42%
Cloudy Lane49     41%
Viking Blond49     41%
Pearlysteps37     39%
Wyck Hill42     39%
Quiscover Fontaine37     38%
Harry The Viking23     37%
Ninetieth Minute21    34%
Lost Glory175     32%
Tarquinius27     31%
Soll28     30%
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 24 Mar 13 21:06
I keep going on and off Across The Bay and can't even remember why. I guess his Welsh national run wasn't the greatest and may be harder to win from the front in a field asbig as this. What are your thoughts on him?
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 24 Mar 13 21:18
Laynplay, the horses that meet the profile on a)  experience (10 chases runs+ 3 chase wins+)  b) recent form level (RPR 140+ in at least 1 of last 2 chases current season) c)  Jumping ability and ability to cope with the big field (no fall or ur in 2 years other than in national + 1st or 2nd in a chase with at least 14 runners) and d) Proven stamina in high class (winner of class 2 chase at 26f+ or placed 1-2-3 in a class 1 at 26f+) are;

Imperial Commander
Teaforthree
Seabass
Balthazar King

Teaforthree meets the profile and has a good prep with 4 races.  IC and Seabass have had unusually light preparations, 3 starts + is the norm to be able to win here.  IC is a rest pattern horse though and very high class so might not need the usual number of runs.  Seabass meets every stat except the 3 runs in a season, he was a bit overraced last season and I wonder if coming here fresher might be a good thing.  Balthazar King's absence looks too long to be seriously considered and very doubtful he will get his ground.

others to consider:
Ballabriggs and Sunnyhillboy lack the required level of recent form and have had weak preparations otherwise would be strong contenders.
Joncol fails the 26f test but otherwise profiles perfectly and is clearly well in on his grade 1 winning form at 3m, Across The Bay similarly just fails on the 26f test but he has had quite a hard campaign and has tried a longer distance and failed.
Cappa Bleu misses out by a whisker on experience, with his PTP history would be a mistake to ignore him for the sake of 1 chase run but he lacks 3 wins too and his prep is light so I won't be backing him.
Last but not least, Chicago Grey meets most of the stats but has a fall in his recent record and unseated last season too.  He didn't look too at home in last year's race either so I'm passing him over.

I've already got a fairly decent bet on Teaforthree and smaller bets on IC and Joncol which I will top up if confirmed runners.  Seabass looks to be the other main contender.  Although he didn't quite get home last season, he is a fresher horse this time and I will be backing him too.






































g contenders
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 24 Mar 13 21:33
Thz thieves I think I will stick with Seabass with maybe a saver on Cappa Blue. I just don't think Teaforthree is well enough handicapped as he was laid out for what I thought was a weak Welsh National and still didn't get the job done. Higher in the handicap here and has had a few runs this season.

Hasn't Joncol had back problems? Not sure tht's not ideal for the National.
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 24 Mar 13 22:14
Yes, Joncol only runs if they can get his back right.  I wouldn't be surprised if he misses it.  All last 10 winners had 3-6 starts same season I believe?  Teaforthree isn't overraced with 4.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 24 Mar 13 22:15
thieves - my amended figures above incorporate your 3 additional trends (a) jumping ability (b) class form @ 26f+ (c) big field form.
By:
JOCI Club
When: 24 Mar 13 22:16
It's just T43's last run that puts me off a bit. If I can come round to forgiving that, then I'll back him too.
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 24 Mar 13 22:32
Yes thanks JOCI figured that, they are an interesting collection of stats, I didn't include the 140+ RFR or the 10 runs 3 wins as you had stats very close to those already.
By:
Meadow X1
When: 24 Mar 13 22:38
I like Seabass but I simply can't see this horse as a the national winner.  Questions...

Consistent- yes

Good jumper-yes

Race as seasonal target-yes

Stays distance- possibly

Weight- More than last year where it didn't appear to get home- No

I think it will get round, jumping well, possibly being placed but winner-no.
By:
laynplay
When: 24 Mar 13 22:43
couldnt have seabass on my mind..none stayer, especially on the likely slower ground...place lay.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 25 Mar 13 00:30
What if Ruby is on Seebass, could he get more out of the horse than Katie?
By:
JOCI Club
When: 25 Mar 13 00:31
I thought she did a fine job last year, so not necessarily.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 25 Mar 13 14:06
Tea4three only had 4 runs but it sure looks like the Welsh national took it out of him judging from his last run.
By:
Speculation
When: 25 Mar 13 14:17
No,T43 hated being away from home for the Haydock run, which is why he travels up on the day. I am excusing him on those grounds anyway Wink
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 25 Mar 13 14:20
some interesting posts but as i have nailed my colours firmly to the mast on seabass at 20's i am not deserting him really fancy him been given great prep and for those who say he didnt get home i cant have that sunnyhillboy my bet last year was well handicapped and in the form of his life the winner had been placed in a gold cup and won a punchestown gold cup i dont think there are those type of horses to contend with this time imperial of course has won a gold cup but not sure he is anywhere near the same horse and these little setbacks must have interupted his prep i have just had a little ew chicago at 20 also
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 25 Mar 13 14:49
Nothing has come out of the WN and ran a decent race though. Monbeg dude came cloest when running a well beaten 3rd before being stuffed in the GN. Looked poor race at time and I'm sticking to that view.
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 25 Mar 13 15:10
Five of the Welsh National runners have won since, Monbeg Dude a respectable 3rd at Haydock. First 2 came clear, way too early to be writing off the form.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 25 Mar 13 15:28
Ok non of those who actually ran their race in the WN have come out and done anything since which either indicates it was a poor renewal or it was a gruelling race. Either way it's put me off T43 as already been trained to peak once this season.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 27 Mar 13 13:03
How does amoney tree lay affect the trends? He's layed Sollso surely. that's worth a 30% boost!
By:
JOCI Club
When: 01 Apr 13 21:49
Latest update after today's defections, latest market moves etc:

Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%

Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Quinz42     69%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Imperial Commander70     66%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Swing Bill23     54%
Auroras Encore35     53%
Tatenen22     52%
Any Currency23     52%
Backstage22     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Romanesco23     49%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Mumbles Head105     49%
Poker De Sivola119     48%
Mortimers Cross35     48%
Mr Moonshine35     48%
Major Malarkey21    46%
Join Together35     45%
Pentiffic65     45%
Cloudy Lane49     43%
Viking Blond49     43%
Gullible Gordon91     41%
Pearlysteps37     38%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Ninetieth Minute21    36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%
Tarquinius27     34%
Soll28     33%


My main bets Seabass and Chicago Grey leading the way, and interesting to see Balthazar King creeping into contention (can it be?).

Still time for change in the next few days.
By:
greythegreat
When: 01 Apr 13 22:15
Great work mate.
any chance you could send me the analysis Joci???
By:
JOCI Club
When: 01 Apr 13 22:54
pop me you e-mail in a message
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 02 Apr 13 10:33
lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 02 Apr 13 10:33
lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 02 Apr 13 10:33
lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
By:
JOCI Club
When: 06 Apr 13 16:07
Final rankings before the off:


Seabass42     83%
Chicago Grey46     79%
Balthazar King141     75%
Teaforthree49     74%
Sunnyhillboy84     74%
Across The Bay49     74%

Ballabriggs35     72%
On His Own46     72%
Colbert Station62     70%
Imperial Commander70     69%
Roberto Goldback42     68%
Cappa Bleu49     68%
Joncol56     68%
Rare Bob27     65%
Big Fella Thanks35     64%
Oscar Time27     64%
Forpadydeplasterer34     60%
Always Waining28     60%
Quel Esprit56     59%
Treacle21    58%
Weird Al56     58%
Becauseicouldntsee23     56%
Auroras Encore35     56%
What A Friend42     56%
Any Currency23     55%
Swing Bill23     54%
Tatenen22     52%
Mumbles Head105     52%
Mr Moonshine35     51%
Saint Are23     50%
Major Malarkey21    50%
The Rainbow Hunter49     49%
Viking Blond49     46%
Join Together35     45%
Ninetieth Minute21    39%
Tarquinius27     37%
Quiscover Fontaine37     36%
Soll28     36%
Harry The Viking23     35%
Lost Glory175     34%
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