Grand National
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JOCI Club's 2013 Grand National Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2013 Grand National Trends Analysis
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FINE
back what you want, they are no hopers for me |
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so what are your fancies then judo ?
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Not so keen Prince de Beauchene, his preparation looks light and he fails my stamina test profile. I don't use the 3m+ chase win stat as is totally useless. 53 of the 57 horses left in meet it this year! I have an alternative assessment which has been basically unchanged for over 2 decades and is based on the tipping point for stamina being 3m 2f, something I've long maintained. Nine of the last 10 winners passed it (all except Monty's Pass) and only 23 of the 57 horses meet it this time. Prince de B, On His Own and Colbert S all miss this key stat this time and add in On His Own and Colbert S's inexperience and the unusually light preparations of OHO and PDB and you have 3 horses at the front of the market that I couldn't touch.
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Not keen on Rare Bob either, doesn't have the level of form I require at 26f+ he also marginally fails another stat, most National winners haven't fallen or unseated rider, other than in the National itself, for at least 2 years including all the last 10. But as his UR was very nearly 2 years ago, and he's had plenty of runs since, I'd be prepared to ignore that.
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thats interesting thieveslikeus ...I think it could be particularly relevent this year....something you may or may not find useful...I have manually gone through the past ten years results and researched head gear from the last 11 runnings.
visored runners 0-7...0 top 5 finishes tongue tie 1-53... 3 top 5 finishes blinkers 1-42...2 top 5 finishes cheek pieces 0-43...2 top 5 finishes so 2 horses won from 140 that carried some sort of headgear...there have been 439 runners in that time so you would expect the runners with headgear to win around 1 in 3 times...its actually only 2 from 11 so I would want to avoid those with headgear personally. |
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which ones are you looking to bet then thieveslikeus ?
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judorick 24 Mar 13 18:56 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 13,349 | Blogger: judorick's blog
FINE back what you want, they are no hopers for me  This guy is just brilliant! Is he for real? |
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you read my mind fivebagken...rattle out of pram or what
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After applying three further trends, here are my revised ratings:
Seabass42 82% Sunnyhillboy84 77% Across The Bay49 77% Chicago Grey46 75% Ballabriggs35 75% Teaforthree49 74% Balthazar King141 74% Lion Na Bearnai126 73% Quinz42 71% On His Own46 71% Roberto Goldback42 70% Colbert Station62 70% Tofino Bay24 69% Cappa Bleu49 67% Joncol56 66% Oscar Time27 66% Prince De Beauchene42 66% Bostons Angel23 64% Beshabar497 64% Rare Bob27 63% Big Fella Thanks35 63% Forpadydeplasterer34 62% Imperial Commander70 61% Bob Lingo21 61% Always Waining28 58% Becauseicouldntsee23 58% Treacle21 57% Weird Al56 56% Magnanimity58 55% Auroras Encore35 55% Tatenen22 54% What A Friend42 54% Any Currency23 54% Quel Esprit56 54% Swing Bill23 52% Backstage22 49% Saint Are23 48% Major Malarkey21 48% Romanesco23 47% The Rainbow Hunter49 47% Mumbles Head105 47% Mortimers Cross35 46% Join Together35 46% Poker De Sivola119 46% Mr Moonshine35 46% Pentiffic65 43% Gullible Gordon91 42% Cloudy Lane49 41% Viking Blond49 41% Pearlysteps37 39% Wyck Hill42 39% Quiscover Fontaine37 38% Harry The Viking23 37% Ninetieth Minute21 34% Lost Glory175 32% Tarquinius27 31% Soll28 30% |
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I keep going on and off Across The Bay and can't even remember why. I guess his Welsh national run wasn't the greatest and may be harder to win from the front in a field asbig as this. What are your thoughts on him?
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Laynplay, the horses that meet the profile on a) experience (10 chases runs+ 3 chase wins+) b) recent form level (RPR 140+ in at least 1 of last 2 chases current season) c) Jumping ability and ability to cope with the big field (no fall or ur in 2 years other than in national + 1st or 2nd in a chase with at least 14 runners) and d) Proven stamina in high class (winner of class 2 chase at 26f+ or placed 1-2-3 in a class 1 at 26f+) are;
Imperial Commander Teaforthree Seabass Balthazar King Teaforthree meets the profile and has a good prep with 4 races. IC and Seabass have had unusually light preparations, 3 starts + is the norm to be able to win here. IC is a rest pattern horse though and very high class so might not need the usual number of runs. Seabass meets every stat except the 3 runs in a season, he was a bit overraced last season and I wonder if coming here fresher might be a good thing. Balthazar King's absence looks too long to be seriously considered and very doubtful he will get his ground. others to consider: Ballabriggs and Sunnyhillboy lack the required level of recent form and have had weak preparations otherwise would be strong contenders. Joncol fails the 26f test but otherwise profiles perfectly and is clearly well in on his grade 1 winning form at 3m, Across The Bay similarly just fails on the 26f test but he has had quite a hard campaign and has tried a longer distance and failed. Cappa Bleu misses out by a whisker on experience, with his PTP history would be a mistake to ignore him for the sake of 1 chase run but he lacks 3 wins too and his prep is light so I won't be backing him. Last but not least, Chicago Grey meets most of the stats but has a fall in his recent record and unseated last season too. He didn't look too at home in last year's race either so I'm passing him over. I've already got a fairly decent bet on Teaforthree and smaller bets on IC and Joncol which I will top up if confirmed runners. Seabass looks to be the other main contender. Although he didn't quite get home last season, he is a fresher horse this time and I will be backing him too. g contenders |
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Thz thieves I think I will stick with Seabass with maybe a saver on Cappa Blue. I just don't think Teaforthree is well enough handicapped as he was laid out for what I thought was a weak Welsh National and still didn't get the job done. Higher in the handicap here and has had a few runs this season.
Hasn't Joncol had back problems? Not sure tht's not ideal for the National. |
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Yes, Joncol only runs if they can get his back right. I wouldn't be surprised if he misses it. All last 10 winners had 3-6 starts same season I believe? Teaforthree isn't overraced with 4.
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thieves - my amended figures above incorporate your 3 additional trends (a) jumping ability (b) class form @ 26f+ (c) big field form.
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It's just T43's last run that puts me off a bit. If I can come round to forgiving that, then I'll back him too.
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Yes thanks JOCI figured that, they are an interesting collection of stats, I didn't include the 140+ RFR or the 10 runs 3 wins as you had stats very close to those already.
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I like Seabass but I simply can't see this horse as a the national winner. Questions...
Consistent- yes Good jumper-yes Race as seasonal target-yes Stays distance- possibly Weight- More than last year where it didn't appear to get home- No I think it will get round, jumping well, possibly being placed but winner-no. |
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couldnt have seabass on my mind..none stayer, especially on the likely slower ground...place lay.
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What if Ruby is on Seebass, could he get more out of the horse than Katie?
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I thought she did a fine job last year, so not necessarily.
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Tea4three only had 4 runs but it sure looks like the Welsh national took it out of him judging from his last run.
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No,T43 hated being away from home for the Haydock run, which is why he travels up on the day. I am excusing him on those grounds anyway
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some interesting posts but as i have nailed my colours firmly to the mast on seabass at 20's i am not deserting him really fancy him been given great prep and for those who say he didnt get home i cant have that sunnyhillboy my bet last year was well handicapped and in the form of his life the winner had been placed in a gold cup and won a punchestown gold cup i dont think there are those type of horses to contend with this time imperial of course has won a gold cup but not sure he is anywhere near the same horse and these little setbacks must have interupted his prep i have just had a little ew chicago at 20 also
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Nothing has come out of the WN and ran a decent race though. Monbeg dude came cloest when running a well beaten 3rd before being stuffed in the GN. Looked poor race at time and I'm sticking to that view.
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Five of the Welsh National runners have won since, Monbeg Dude a respectable 3rd at Haydock. First 2 came clear, way too early to be writing off the form.
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Ok non of those who actually ran their race in the WN have come out and done anything since which either indicates it was a poor renewal or it was a gruelling race. Either way it's put me off T43 as already been trained to peak once this season.
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How does amoney tree lay affect the trends? He's layed Sollso surely. that's worth a 30% boost!
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Latest update after today's defections, latest market moves etc:
Seabass42 83% Chicago Grey46 79% Balthazar King141 75% Teaforthree49 74% Sunnyhillboy84 74% Across The Bay49 74% Ballabriggs35 72% On His Own46 72% Colbert Station62 70% Quinz42 69% Roberto Goldback42 68% Cappa Bleu49 68% Joncol56 68% Imperial Commander70 66% Rare Bob27 65% Big Fella Thanks35 64% Oscar Time27 64% Forpadydeplasterer34 60% Always Waining28 60% Quel Esprit56 59% Treacle21 58% Weird Al56 58% Becauseicouldntsee23 56% What A Friend42 56% Swing Bill23 54% Auroras Encore35 53% Tatenen22 52% Any Currency23 52% Backstage22 51% Saint Are23 50% Romanesco23 49% The Rainbow Hunter49 49% Mumbles Head105 49% Poker De Sivola119 48% Mortimers Cross35 48% Mr Moonshine35 48% Major Malarkey21 46% Join Together35 45% Pentiffic65 45% Cloudy Lane49 43% Viking Blond49 43% Gullible Gordon91 41% Pearlysteps37 38% Quiscover Fontaine37 36% Ninetieth Minute21 36% Harry The Viking23 35% Lost Glory175 34% Tarquinius27 34% Soll28 33% My main bets Seabass and Chicago Grey leading the way, and interesting to see Balthazar King creeping into contention (can it be?). Still time for change in the next few days. |
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Great work mate.
any chance you could send me the analysis Joci??? |
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pop me you e-mail in a message
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lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
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lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
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lets hope we are right joci as i am on seabass at 20 win and chicago grey 20 ew as i have already stated i think this years national has been the target for seabass last season he had already won 5 chases and of course he needed to to gain a hcp mark high enough to get in the national granted luck in running i see katie making national history
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Final rankings before the off:
Seabass42 83% Chicago Grey46 79% Balthazar King141 75% Teaforthree49 74% Sunnyhillboy84 74% Across The Bay49 74% Ballabriggs35 72% On His Own46 72% Colbert Station62 70% Imperial Commander70 69% Roberto Goldback42 68% Cappa Bleu49 68% Joncol56 68% Rare Bob27 65% Big Fella Thanks35 64% Oscar Time27 64% Forpadydeplasterer34 60% Always Waining28 60% Quel Esprit56 59% Treacle21 58% Weird Al56 58% Becauseicouldntsee23 56% Auroras Encore35 56% What A Friend42 56% Any Currency23 55% Swing Bill23 54% Tatenen22 52% Mumbles Head105 52% Mr Moonshine35 51% Saint Are23 50% Major Malarkey21 50% The Rainbow Hunter49 49% Viking Blond49 46% Join Together35 45% Ninetieth Minute21 39% Tarquinius27 37% Quiscover Fontaine37 36% Soll28 36% Harry The Viking23 35% Lost Glory175 34% |