Grand National
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Will go into this a bit more detail closer to the event but I've been ranking the horses on 28 available ten year trends applicable to the Grand National, and my current ranking is listed below. This will change once the final weights and composition of the final field becomes available, but is a decent indicator of the horses I give the best chance to.
Teaforthree49 84%
Chicago Grey46 81%
Across The Bay49 81%
Ballabriggs35 78%
Seabass42 76%
Big Fella Thanks35 74%
Rare Bob27 74%
Roberto Goldback42 73%
Joncol56 72%
Bostons Angel23 71%
Becauseicouldntsee23 70%
Oscar Time27 70%
Bob Lingo42 69%
Forpadydeplasterer34 67%
Tatenen22 66%
Colbert Station62 63%
Prince De Beauchene42 63%
Auroras Encore35 63%
Tofino Bay24 62%
On His Own46 62%
Sunnyhillboy84 61%
Always Waining28 61%
Quinz42 61%
Magnanimity58 61%
Weird Al56 60%
Swing Bill23 59%
The Rainbow Hunter49 59%
Mr Moonshine35 59%
Quiscover Fontaine37 59%
Any Currency23 59%
Treacle21 58%
What A Friend42 58%
Lion Na Bearnai126 57%
Join Together35 57%
Balthazar King141 56%
Cappa Bleu49 56%
Major Malarkey21 55%
Ninetieth Minute21 54%
Saint Are23 52%
Mortimers Cross35 52%
Wyck Hill42 49%
Imperial Commander70 48%
Viking Blond49 48%
Pentiffic65 47%
Mumbles Head105 46%
Quel Esprit56 46%
Romanesco23 45%
Beshabar497 42%
Pearlysteps37 42%
Gullible Gordon91 42%
Harry The Viking23 39%
Backstage22 37%
Tarquinius27 37%
Soll28 35%
Cloudy Lane49 34%
Poker De Sivola119 33%
Lost Glory175 24%
Teaforthree49 84%
Chicago Grey46 81%
Across The Bay49 81%
Ballabriggs35 78%
Seabass42 76%
Big Fella Thanks35 74%
Rare Bob27 74%
Roberto Goldback42 73%
Joncol56 72%
Bostons Angel23 71%
Becauseicouldntsee23 70%
Oscar Time27 70%
Bob Lingo42 69%
Forpadydeplasterer34 67%
Tatenen22 66%
Colbert Station62 63%
Prince De Beauchene42 63%
Auroras Encore35 63%
Tofino Bay24 62%
On His Own46 62%
Sunnyhillboy84 61%
Always Waining28 61%
Quinz42 61%
Magnanimity58 61%
Weird Al56 60%
Swing Bill23 59%
The Rainbow Hunter49 59%
Mr Moonshine35 59%
Quiscover Fontaine37 59%
Any Currency23 59%
Treacle21 58%
What A Friend42 58%
Lion Na Bearnai126 57%
Join Together35 57%
Balthazar King141 56%
Cappa Bleu49 56%
Major Malarkey21 55%
Ninetieth Minute21 54%
Saint Are23 52%
Mortimers Cross35 52%
Wyck Hill42 49%
Imperial Commander70 48%
Viking Blond49 48%
Pentiffic65 47%
Mumbles Head105 46%
Quel Esprit56 46%
Romanesco23 45%
Beshabar497 42%
Pearlysteps37 42%
Gullible Gordon91 42%
Harry The Viking23 39%
Backstage22 37%
Tarquinius27 37%
Soll28 35%
Cloudy Lane49 34%
Poker De Sivola119 33%
Lost Glory175 24%
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Replies: 73
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Thank you. Surprised to see Cappa Bleu so low. I have a fancy for Across the Bay so happy he is high up there. Just need his trainer to improve his form a bit but he does know how to win a national!
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I will be doing a bit more tweaking tonight, as this is still work in progress, so treat with a bit of caution at this point. Cappa Bleu misses quite a lot of my trends.
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I was looking at Across the Bay myself but the McCain stable seems to be struggling and it sounds like they much prefer Ballabriggs
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My top four are very close to JOCI:
1 - Teaforthree 2 - Chicago Grey 3 - Ballabriggs 4 - Joncol |
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Not sure a 10year analysis really holds for the National anymore. A 5year one might be more interesting and in the great scheme of things only slightly less statistically-relevant.
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I guess the Welsh National run is a worry for Across the Bay, didn't look like a stayer that day his recent winning form has been from front running and he didn't that day so maybe that wasn't meant to be his day.
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Trends are very good for narrowing the field down but a great example of why they are not everything is Big Fella Thanks being 5th highest when he has no chance, unless there are a lot of fallers.
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Sorry should read 6th highest!
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best handicapped horse in the field and 8/1 fav on his own...rated 19th.!!?
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According to me, yes. When he romps home, come back and give me / my system some stick.
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Surprised they haven't given On his Own another outing over fences after his fall last year. I know it's to protect handicap but could have done it after the weights had came out.
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Made a few treaks, and updated a couple of things, and here's my latest ranking (again, still not final as a couple more things to fall in place yet).
Seabass42 80% Sunnyhillboy84 78% Across The Bay49 78% Chicago Grey46 77% Teaforthree49 75% Roberto Goldback42 74% Bostons Angel23 73% Ballabriggs35 72% On His Own46 71% Quinz42 71% Balthazar King141 70% Prince De Beauchene42 70% Lion Na Bearnai126 70% Tofino Bay24 69% Rare Bob27 67% Big Fella Thanks35 67% Oscar Time27 67% Joncol56 66% Colbert Station62 66% Bob Lingo42 64% Cappa Bleu49 63% Forpadydeplasterer34 61% Becauseicouldntsee23 61% Treacle21 60% Beshabar497 59% Weird Al56 59% Auroras Encore35 58% Always Waining28 57% What A Friend42 57% Tatenen22 57% Imperial Commander70 56% Quel Esprit56 56% Magnanimity58 54% The Rainbow Hunter49 53% Any Currency23 52% Swing Bill23 50% Saint Are23 50% Romanesco23 49% Mortimers Cross35 48% Join Together35 48% Pentiffic65 48% Mr Moonshine35 48% Major Malarkey21 46% Mumbles Head105 44% Pearlysteps37 44% Poker De Sivola119 44% Wyck Hill42 44% Gullible Gordon91 44% Backstage22 43% Quiscover Fontaine37 42% Ninetieth Minute21 38% Viking Blond49 37% Harry The Viking23 37% Cloudy Lane49 34% Lost Glory175 31% Tarquinius27 31% Soll28 30% Have so far backed Seabass at 15 and Chicago Grey at 20. |
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The Best Jumpers (Fall or UR/Races)
Swing Bill 0% 30 Tarquinius 0% 29 Forpadydeplasterer 0% 24 Joncol 0% 18 Balthazar King 0% 16 Magnanimity 0% 16 Lion Na Bearnai1 0% 11 Mr Moonshine 0% 11 Teaforthree 0% 10 Lost Glory 0% 9 Tofino Bay 0% 7 Harry The Viking 0% 7 Beshabar 0% 6 Soll 0% 6 Colbert Station 0% 5 The Dodgepots (% Fall or UR) Tatenen 17% Mumbles Head 17% Auroras Encore 17% Major Malarkey 18% Saint Are 18% Ninetieth Minute 18% Big Fella Thanks 20% Quiscover Fontaine 20% Quel Esprit 22% Becauseicouldntsee 27% I guess he should be statistically the worst jumper with a name like that! Food for thought? |
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What is the record of horses who pulled up in their last race in the National? Would it be stupid to rule them out or not?
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Don't Push It,pulled up race before he won
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I think Seabass is going to be my pick. Looks cloesly matched with Cappa Bleu on form but only faded at the death and apparently race is slightly shorter this year. Plus Cappa Bleu never really looked like winning, can see another place for him. A lot of the others seem too inexperienced, dodgy jumpers, non stayers or not well handicapped imo.
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could do with poker de sivola getting into the race
When people start to look at his form he is no 66/1 rag just need luck to get him in off 10st |
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Yeah a lively outsider for sure. Does seem to make a few mistake but he did get around the fences on unsuitable ground last time. Worth a shot at the prices.
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Prepped last time jumped the fences perfectly not a semblence of a mistake careful reckon murphy could get the leg up the further the better for this horse
a whitbred winner a 4m festival winner off bottom weight right age ran well last time at Aintree still had every chance jumping the 2nd last better as a spring horse. Cannot be this price on the day unless it turns out a bog |
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Other horse is magnanimity monster price 50/1 ran well on gd ground in RSA chase has a touch of class travels well usually jumps okay another 66/1 poke which is worth a shot ew
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apologies meant to say between 50/1 and 66/1 available
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Loads of stats suggest Poker de Sivola would be an unlikely winner, and also Quiscover Fontaine, well regarded by several on the forum, seemingly has it all to do too.
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i have bet seabass at 20 and cappa bleu and chicago grey both ew 25 and 20 poker de sivola would be very interesting on genuine spring ground but that looks impossible at the mo spoke to ferdy a couple of weeks ago and he didnt think he would get in but the way things are going i think he would make the 40 would have to play if spring arrives in next 10 days
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Hasn't Ferdy (again) said somewhere that next year is the plan regarding the National?
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yes but i think he said that when it didnt appear poker would get in
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Plus Ferdy couldn't give you a straight answer if you asked for it in binary
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Hi JOCI,
An interesting addition to the stats that I have added in this year is about horses who have unseated their riders. On Nick Mordin's website a few weeks ago he wrote The Grand National fences are taller than at other tracks and horses inevitably land more steeply - increasing the risk of them propelling their rider out of the saddle. It therefore makes sense that if a horse has unseated its rider at all recently it will be a poor risk to complete the course let alone win around Aintree. This has to be especially true for one with a low head carriage like Prince de Beauchene. To see what I mean download the video of the Bobbyjo and freeze it as he lands over the last and ask yourself what would happen to his jockey if he did that at Bechers. Only one of the last twenty two Grand National winners (Bindaree) unseated their rider in one of their last seventeen starts before the big race. If the same proportion of National runners has unseated that recently over the last twenty two years as they have over the last fourteen then 267 have done so for that single success. Prince De Beauchene unseated his rider nine runs back at Carlisle. He also unseated once in France (he was remounted to finish third). Only found this once I had put money on Chicago Grey and Rare Bob  |
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can i ask how come quel esprit scores so lowly joci and the horse he beat in a grade 1 RG is rated much higher
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alleged22 22 Mar 13 17:35
can i ask how come quel esprit scores so lowly joci and the horse he beat in a grade 1 RG is rated much higher If you want message me e-mail and I can send the analysis to you so you can check out the details. |
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wats u email joci.id be intrested in how u arrive at your ratings.ta
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Message me with yours and I'll send it.
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Awesome work Joci,Got my daughter teaching me how to do spreadsheets now
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Did anyone else witness Across The Bay's run at Aintree last time? The horse kept trying to pull itself up. I nearly ran out to give it a push
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I have applied 15 trends and taken 20/1 for TEAFORTHREE who I really like...other 2 are PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE @ around 12/1 and RARE BOB @ 40/1.
a really interesting 8 year old for 2014/15/16 is JOIN TOGETHER whose sire is old vic ( sire of 2 recent grand national winners ) and dam sire is montelimar who also sired 2 grand national winners...only 1 8 yo has won in last 18 years so will be patient with this one. |
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I have a sly fancy for Rare Bob too, and have had an investment at 44.
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Rare Bob hugely over raced, Teaforthree was a novice last year and has other stats against him and is a long way down on my spreadsheet, Prince de Beauchene way too high in the ratings. All 3 major negatives for me
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neptune collonges was having his 36th career start when winning last year...rare bob will be having his 41st...splitting hairs if you call rare bob over raced.
Teaforthree is a big old fashioned chaser who races prominently..has shouldered some huge weights and will stay all day...on the likely slow ground I like him at 20/1 far more than virtually all of the ones at the head of the market. Prince de Beauchene ticks lots of boxes for me... backing the 3 each way and staking it so that 1 place covers all stakes. had the winner 3 of the last 4 years using same strategy so wont be doing anything different this year. |
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Novice last year stat could be a red herring with Teaforthree, the continued modifications to the race are going to nullify some trends for sure but in any case 10 chases and 3 wins is the exact same profile as Numbersixvalverde and add in 4 PTPs and he is experienced enough. His 2nd in the Welsh National was a perfect trial giving 16lbs to the winner. Huge horse who jumps extremely well and will be very well suited by the wide flat galloping track. Times suggested the ground at Chepstow wasn't that heavy and the bottomless ground didn't help him at Haydock. The only thing that would put me off would, therefore, be really bad ground.
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what are your fancies joci ?
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