Totesport Bowl

what a pathetic field and owners moan at prize money

surely Denman won't even have to be at his best to win this? If he gets round he'll be far too good for any of these. Anyone make a serious case for any of the opposition?

Punchestowns looks like the winner to me. This race has been the target for some time now and with Denman having a hard race in the GC and Nacarat looking regressive this looks like a good opportunity to get his career back on track. The 5/1 or thereabouts on here looks very big. I have no doubt that he will go off shorter.

5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that

when you see a grade 1 as poor as this you realise that's it's crazy to retire a horse of the quality of denman.

True ^

CVByrne
05 Apr 11 21:11 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 2,607 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
CV you seem to have a lack of understanding as to
Sorry but I had to laugh at that.

Anyway good luck with your Binocular bet. As I said backing short priced horses at Aintree is not for me. I've done well over the years opposing them, regardless of if they are the best horse in the race or not.
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have u changed your opinion in the last few minutes?

i can see denman been turned over in this race,aintree does not suit him as much as newbury and cheltenham does

Changed my mind ? what on earth are you talking about evra?

"As I said backing short priced horses at Aintree is not for me. I've done well over the years opposing them"

"5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that"

is that clear enough for you?

5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that


I say you twice in that post. I'm clearly talking to the op

Also for an interest = small bet so you have something in the race to keep you interested.

Struggle in English class did you?

I'm tempted by Nacarat but my main concern is he did n't run a great race in this last year.I don't think Punchestowns is as good a chaser as he was hurdler. Need a closer look at Deep Purple's form.

Can't have Denman for this unfortunately - struggled in this 2 years ago, tough race less than three weeks ago and recall Sam Thomas remarks that he struggled with gallop on first circuit in Gold Cup - that'll surely be tougher for him at a track like Aintree over 1.5 furlongs less?

Anyway, I'll be there to see 'The Tank' in the flesh for the first time on Thursday and can't wait - might not have a bet in the race and just cheer him on.

Nothing to be made from the first 3 races really. Value in Carloes Legacy is gone, I have backed Knockara Beau e/w @ 33/1 will have a look at the 4yo hurdle but don't really want to take Zarkander on.

3 good betting races on Thursday though after the Grade 1's.

I hope Denman wins, he deserves to.

yep, tend to agree - don't want to take Zarkander on either - would like to back but not at odds on.

I'll be keeping an eye on Heron's Well in the Foxhunters - was going at least as well alongside Baby Run at Cheltenham to my eye before unseating - small stakes though - you get a lot of URs in those races!!

Not looked at the other races yet in any detail.

Gotta back My Way De Solzen in Foxhunters.

Have 2 for each of the two handicap. Gotta wait for the dec's as some have multiple entries.

Will take Spirit Son on on Fri, but can't find one to beat Wayward Prince and won't take Bobs Worth on. Topham is tough, I've Chasing Cars e/w @ 33/1 and am stuck with about 4/5 others I like.

Leaning towards Celestial Halo e/w in Aintree now as he'll prob be last or 2nd last in the betting. Few other decent ones on Sat, plus a decent national book with WAF @ 50's down to 16's.

one i like is caroles legacy. if i took 5/4 about a horse like denman in a race like this given his age/last win/break/course history etc i think its fair to say id be skint. def worth takin on

oh so your advising other forumites to bet on short price favourites who have previously been to cheltenham,how nice of you!

A few people writing Denman off on one poor run in this 2 years ago on the back of pretty much a non-event season, and when Madison Du Berlais was actually a pretty good horse in his own right

would never right him off FFT - just won't be backing him. It's a fair point though MdB rated 169 then, Denman 181, Denman now 181 and next best 158 on Thurs.

That's not the only factor - he's two years older, the ground will be faster than ideal (notwithstanding his stellar effort on similar in the Gold Cup) - Nacarat and DP will appreciate the going.

Also remember seeing IC looking very agitated in parade ring before this race last year - think Gold Cup very tough race for the principles and takes a lot out of them - can only see Exotic Dancer in recent years who's won this on back of placing in Gold Cup.

just to be clear - would love to see him win it - deserves to win a race after his two heroic efforts this season.

sorry, Denman now rated 177.

Ground, for me isn't the issue that it's made out to be. He's equally as good on faster ground than soft.

I can see the argument for taking him on, tough race 3 weeks ago may have left its mark. He's my fav horse ever and I was looking to take him on.

However I think there's more than enough doubts about the opposition here. Nacarat never really top class, don't rate DP, Punchy is a f@g, MIT waste of an entry. Caroles Legacy would seem the obvious play on WH Trophy form (Bensalem well handicapped as we knew) and miles clear of the third, but the price has gone

One win since winning the GC in 2008.

Great horse but 5/4 in this is madness. Track doesn't suit, trainer has specifically stated that he goes "best fresh" (following the Hennessy in November) and I think at least one of the Henderson pair will finish ahead of The Tank.

pretty much agree with that - especially the bit about Punchy

Hopefully, I'll resist getting involved and just enjoy the spectacle and cheer Denman on.

Exotic Dancer won this easily when he came 2nd in the Gold Cup.

People forget Kauto was about to win this easily before ploughing into the 2nd last and coming to a stop, and still he was only nabbed on the line by Grade 1 winner Our Vic.

Denman was having his 3rd run in a short period where he wasn't out of it before he fell and he was against a horse who was fantastic that season who loves flat tracks in Madison Du Burlais.

IC always has big gaps between his races for a reason and fresh What a Friend is clearly good when he wants to be.

Ground is far too quick, course far too tight, and race will come too soon. He wouldn't be running if there was any alternative race left this season. Obviously he's better than the others but that was true 2 years ago and look what happened there.He could still win, and I'd love to see it, but he's almost certain to run way below his best.

And pray tell what's going to beat him?

Nacarat? Best when fresh Tom George said and 6 weeks is not 6 months. He's been showed up time and time again as a horse who lacks real class and his last 3 runs ave been mega ordinary.

Puchestowns? He's got to be the most overreated chaser in training.

Carlol's Legacy? Tough and game and was giving the winner weight at Cheltenham. Preferred to her stable companion but this is a hue leap in class. (Looks booked for 2nd IMO)

Deep Purple: Trainer wasn't sure whether he'd run him or not. He'll need to find his very best for to figure and that is unlikely.

Follow the Plan? What plan? finish 3rd and take some dosh home is what they will have in mind.

The race is a non event or a Denman charity event. Either way he should win will ease.

Paul Nichol's came up with the idea of letting him down after the Hennessy and bringing him back for the Gold Cup and it worked well for him but Denman doesn't need a big break between his races.

Denman has run in February every year bar one and it's made no difference having won twice and finishing 2nd 3 times now.

Course? Against this lot it will take more than a few bends to stop him. 5/4 is a steal

looked ill at ease round Aintree's tight track last time Denman ran there. Bit more cut this time but after a hard GC I wouldn't go near him at anything around Evens or odds against.

il be laying denman at evens before the race. good luck rondetto, things wont go as you think

no bet race if ever i saw one

Where are you gojng to get 20k to lay me Revedsivola? Bank robbery is against the law you know

we shall see who will be laughing at the weekend[;)] if theres not a better evens poke than denman in this race then its time to give up. well, look on the bright side, at least he loves aintree, hasnt had a hard race a few weeks ago, will love the ground and is on a winning streak. good luck with your bet, i hope official ratings make you confident

I just wonder how worried people would be if he had stood up at Aintree on his last visit?

Madam De Bourlais was upsides and they had already beaten off Exotic Dancer when Denman fell.

He handled the course well enough to indicate it won't be a problem against this lot.

Cya on the darkside[;)]

rondetto your forgetting one think,what age was he back then?hes a bit older now and although he ran a cracking race at cheltenham,that was when he was kept fresh and had not run since his hennessy effort,

Agreed.

There's alot of sentimental money that goes on Denman (and I backed him in the 09 and 10 Gold Cups!) He's not up against the greatest lot here, but the price looks wrong to me. Yes, he may win. At 2/1 he'd be considered, at 5/4 I'm staying away and probably going to back Punchestowns who has run two shockers at Cheltenham but is fairly consistent otherwise.

Anyone who says Denman handled Aintree 2 years ago was watching a different race to me. There were some of us on here pleading for him not to run then and I feel similar about tomorrow. Im going but will avoid betting in the race and probably watch it on a screen. I hope he proves me very very wrong and he wins easily.

i cant put it any simpler than this.

denmans run in the bowl 2010 was way short of his best.  however he was having an awful season and still would have ran madison du berlais close and finished infront of albertas run and our vic (would have been tight with exotic dancer).

the tank is lightly raced this season and has shown improved form and a love for the game again.  if you took denman out and put madison du berlais, exotic dancer or our vic (from 2010) into the race they would be very short priced favorites.

denman will run them into the ground and i will be having a large win bet and a large double with big bucks.

come on the tank!! when they doubt you, you always prove them wrong.

i hope for you his winning? streak continues

Punchestowns.

He's the only one talented enough to beat Denman here.

He was beaten a neck by a fit Pride of Dulcote giving him weight, a horse who's rep was building until his unfortunate death. Then yes he was disappointing when beaten by a strong front running Neptune Collonges. While he didn't look great beating pasco by 11l over a trip too short, that race was only 12 days after the Argento.

He goes here fresh against horses who ran at chelts and is the only grade one winner here bar Denman. Nacarat can't seem to finish off his races these days while Barry has clearly picked Punchestowns over his stable mate Caroles Legacy. Deep Purple hasn't looked like winning a race since he bled in the 09 King George.   

1pt win Punchestowns @ 6/1
1pt win Punchestown @ 3/1 w/o Denman

To be honest its a no bet race.
If you must decide on the race w/o denman,

I fear for Denman round here, these fences are rock solid if you meet them wrong, you dont get 2nd chances.... Jenny Pitman always said the Milday is just about the hardest jumps track in the uk, cant argue with that.

Sandown defo hardest, the railway fences come so quick and fast. Tingle Creek is a proper race imo.

I worry for Denman's welfare tomorrow. Don't think he should be running. Aintree does not suit. He was spent when he fell there 2 years ago, and came close to breaking his shoulder. This was due to the horse being under maximum pressure at the time - horses become uncoordinated when they get tired. It's what makes Aintree such a tough course following on the heals of Cheltenham - they go championship pace round a very tight track.
People referencing Exotic Dancer as a benchmark of the form Denman showed in that race are way off too - Exotic Dancer hit virtually every fence and it was only his bravery that got him into his finishing position - and the exertion cost him his life as he dropped dead afterwards.
Many fatalities at Aintree - even trainers don't seem to respect the toll it takes on a horse that has had a hard race at Cheltenham.

I was thinking that Deep Purple could have a chance, until i realised i got him mixed up with Planet of sound for some reason. Nah, can't see anything upsetting Denman here. Isn't much to say really. I don't have any fears about the track. I dunno, maybe the GC could take it toll. Definitely wouldn't be laying the tank anyway.

Punchestowns is only horse who has enough raw talent to win, he's fresh and could be the one to upset a below par Denman.

Correct Johnny,

This track is beautifully put together, and as you say the pace is unrelenting, no breathers.

The run between the 3rd last n 2nd last catch's horses and jockeys out, because they build up such a head of steam for that last burst,,, over that furlong, no other track does that in a straight line a championship pace, so by the last they are drunk literally.

I will not be laying denman, in fact i wont be betting on the race...just hoping he comes back in 1 piece.

I couldn't have Punchestown, CVB. He isn't a good enough jumper, and lacks strength. I think they label horses like him an 'enigma'. Not good enough for top level jumping, and wouldn't be good enough over hurdles either. I don't see the 'raw talent' you talk about.

He was a top hurdler and has won a Grade 1 over fences. He's just a bit of a hound really. But What a Friend is a similar one, houndish yet talented. He's the only horse I can see beating Denman, he could well be pulled up but I think that is factored into his price.

It's a punt alright.

Fancy Punchestowns at the current prices and I'm a massive Denman fan.

If you ignore his Cheltenham runs (to me it seems obvious that he's isn't at home at the place, his form there is markedly different to everywhere else)his form is 1111121 and has shown himself to be a grade 1 winning chaser and hurdler I think will benefit going to Aintree fresh after a break.

Denman's a better horse, no doubts but with all the circumstances surrounding this I think Punchestowns will just have enough to sneak it tomorrow.

That 2nd was by a short head to Pride of Dulcote who was fit and getting weight from a Punchestown fto.

i dont see any reason to suggest that pride of dulcote was anything more than a good novice chaser. i can think of handfulls of novice chasers that could win 2 very average chases. i dont think punchestowns is up to much either obv if he cant beat a horse like pride of dulcote. i think pod was made out to be much better than he was on account of beating punchestowns, which as we all know now isnt actually hard to do at all

agree with cv re punchestowns,follow the plan may surprise a few too [;)]

Won't Surprise me, he already did that this season when beating Roberto Golback in Jan

He's 22/1 in w/o Denman market. Think the extra distance will suite.

Look you lot! listen The field want to sing.

Denman will sing "I'm leaving on a jet plane" and the rest can sing "Row row row you boat" as the follow him miles behind.

Too much emphasis put on the track. He's the best horse in the race by a mile. He just finished 2nd in the Gold Cup where none of this lot would have been sighted so unless you can change a "row row row your boat" into Rocket Man, forget it, Denman wins.

As much as I love Denman I think the exertions of Chelters will have taken its toll & am opposing him with the Henderson pair - Punchestowns fresh and Caroles Legacy as tough as nails.

love how the exertions of cheltenham will affect denman but when it comes to caroles legacy she is as tough as nails. she also ran a big race at cheltenham don't forget & the tank is as tough as they come! if he runs to 70% of his cheltenham run he should win and i've backed him for that reason only.

just hope nicholls has judged this one right and he won't be too shot for the race.

Simple - CL stands up to racing frequently, Denman doesn't. Therefore my view is that Denman will feel it far more.

Yeah but Denman doesnt need to be at his best to beat these he's best part of 20lbs clear

When will people learn? Did warn you all. That was just horrible to watch. Denman does not deserve such callous treatment. Aintree is completely the wrong track for the horse - how connections could not appreciate that after his run 2 years ago I'll never know.
Some Watford WH punter had 50 grand on Denman at 5-4. Oh to be a bookmaker - ffs, the BBC coverage is abysmal as well. Not a clue.

Yep. Spot on Johnnyrant.

Have to say as well that three weeks gap is not enough for a run after the Gold Cup anywhere. Add to the mix he fell at AIntree two years ago and it's just greed on behalf of connections.

Thought they could steal some easy prize money but Big Bucks apart they're not machines.

Hope he has a good rest over the summer and has one more big run next season to finish on a high.

spot on Lady M - as you say, the Festival invariably leaves its mark on horses that have run in the GC. Appalling decision to run him again at Aintree. Such a gutsy campaigner who has earned connections so much money he deserves better at the age of 11.

You honestly think a run like that was down to the track? Love to hear what Ruby had to say off the record.

was there - he was absolutely knackered - feared for him down home straight - glad he got home safe.

Totally different proposition trying to follow up at Aintree after running a big race in the Gold Cup than in any other race.

On a different tack, I don't think Punchestowns is very good over fences.

Rondetto
07 Apr 11 10:52 Joined: 20 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 406 | Blogger: Rondetto's blog
Look you lot! listen The field want to sing.

Denman will sing "I'm leaving on a jet plane" and the rest can sing "Row row row you boat" as the follow him miles behind.

Too much emphasis put on the track. He's the best horse in the race by a mile. He just finished 2nd in the Gold Cup where none of this lot would have been sighted so unless you can change a "row row row your boat" into Rocket Man, forget it, Denman wins.
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you sound like a rite shroodie

as steve says, i dont like to say it rondetto, but i told you so

Punchestowns is a c**t

He should be next seen in the sequel to Best in Show

hurdles now i suppose

Glue factory

punchestown let me down for an e/w treble [>o][>o]
incredibly bad jumper,hesitant at every fence,
be pulling karts next season

And I thought I was a bad judge going for Denman