Grand National
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is 5/4 value or should I be wholly wary of the gold cup/totesport bowl stat? granted denman didn't win the big race but ran fantastically all the same.
ordinarily you just cannot see who is going to beat him in this company. practically a bunch of grade 2ers. but they all swerved cheltenham.
ordinarily you just cannot see who is going to beat him in this company. practically a bunch of grade 2ers. but they all swerved cheltenham.
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what a pathetic field and owners moan at prize money
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surely Denman won't even have to be at his best to win this? If he gets round he'll be far too good for any of these. Anyone make a serious case for any of the opposition?
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Punchestowns looks like the winner to me. This race has been the target for some time now and with Denman having a hard race in the GC and Nacarat looking regressive this looks like a good opportunity to get his career back on track. The 5/1 or thereabouts on here looks very big. I have no doubt that he will go off shorter.
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5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that
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when you see a grade 1 as poor as this you realise that's it's crazy to retire a horse of the quality of denman.
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True ^
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CVByrne
05 Apr 11 21:11 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 2,607 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog CV you seem to have a lack of understanding as to Sorry but I had to laugh at that. Anyway good luck with your Binocular bet. As I said backing short priced horses at Aintree is not for me. I've done well over the years opposing them, regardless of if they are the best horse in the race or not. Rate reply: | report have u changed your opinion in the last few minutes?  |
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i can see denman been turned over in this race,aintree does not suit him as much as newbury and cheltenham does
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Changed my mind ? what on earth are you talking about evra?
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"As I said backing short priced horses at Aintree is not for me. I've done well over the years opposing them"
"5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that" is that clear enough for you? |
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5/4 is value given how bad the opposition is, but you ain't getting rich backing at that price and you can't be hitting it hard. Nice double with Big bucks for an interest and leave it at that
I say you twice in that post. I'm clearly talking to the op Also for an interest = small bet so you have something in the race to keep you interested. Struggle in English class did you? |
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I'm tempted by Nacarat but my main concern is he did n't run a great race in this last year.I don't think Punchestowns is as good a chaser as he was hurdler. Need a closer look at Deep Purple's form.
Can't have Denman for this unfortunately - struggled in this 2 years ago, tough race less than three weeks ago and recall Sam Thomas remarks that he struggled with gallop on first circuit in Gold Cup - that'll surely be tougher for him at a track like Aintree over 1.5 furlongs less? Anyway, I'll be there to see 'The Tank' in the flesh for the first time on Thursday and can't wait - might not have a bet in the race and just cheer him on. |
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Nothing to be made from the first 3 races really. Value in Carloes Legacy is gone, I have backed Knockara Beau e/w @ 33/1 will have a look at the 4yo hurdle but don't really want to take Zarkander on.
3 good betting races on Thursday though after the Grade 1's. I hope Denman wins, he deserves to. |
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yep, tend to agree - don't want to take Zarkander on either - would like to back but not at odds on.
I'll be keeping an eye on Heron's Well in the Foxhunters - was going at least as well alongside Baby Run at Cheltenham to my eye before unseating - small stakes though - you get a lot of URs in those races!! Not looked at the other races yet in any detail. |
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Gotta back My Way De Solzen in Foxhunters.
 Have 2 for each of the two handicap. Gotta wait for the dec's as some have multiple entries. Will take Spirit Son on on Fri, but can't find one to beat Wayward Prince and won't take Bobs Worth on. Topham is tough, I've Chasing Cars e/w @ 33/1 and am stuck with about 4/5 others I like. Leaning towards Celestial Halo e/w in Aintree now as he'll prob be last or 2nd last in the betting. Few other decent ones on Sat, plus a decent national book with WAF @ 50's down to 16's. |
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one i like is caroles legacy. if i took 5/4 about a horse like denman in a race like this given his age/last win/break/course history etc i think its fair to say id be skint. def worth takin on
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oh so your advising other forumites to bet on short price favourites who have previously been to cheltenham,how nice of you!
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A few people writing Denman off on one poor run in this 2 years ago on the back of pretty much a non-event season, and when Madison Du Berlais was actually a pretty good horse in his own right
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would never right him off FFT - just won't be backing him. It's a fair point though MdB rated 169 then, Denman 181, Denman now 181 and next best 158 on Thurs.
That's not the only factor - he's two years older, the ground will be faster than ideal (notwithstanding his stellar effort on similar in the Gold Cup) - Nacarat and DP will appreciate the going. Also remember seeing IC looking very agitated in parade ring before this race last year - think Gold Cup very tough race for the principles and takes a lot out of them - can only see Exotic Dancer in recent years who's won this on back of placing in Gold Cup. |
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just to be clear - would love to see him win it - deserves to win a race after his two heroic efforts this season.
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sorry, Denman now rated 177.
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Ground, for me isn't the issue that it's made out to be. He's equally as good on faster ground than soft.
I can see the argument for taking him on, tough race 3 weeks ago may have left its mark. He's my fav horse ever and I was looking to take him on. However I think there's more than enough doubts about the opposition here. Nacarat never really top class, don't rate DP, Punchy is a f@g, MIT waste of an entry. Caroles Legacy would seem the obvious play on WH Trophy form (Bensalem well handicapped as we knew) and miles clear of the third, but the price has gone |
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One win since winning the GC in 2008.
Great horse but 5/4 in this is madness. Track doesn't suit, trainer has specifically stated that he goes "best fresh" (following the Hennessy in November) and I think at least one of the Henderson pair will finish ahead of The Tank. |
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pretty much agree with that - especially the bit about Punchy
 Hopefully, I'll resist getting involved and just enjoy the spectacle and cheer Denman on. |
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Exotic Dancer won this easily when he came 2nd in the Gold Cup.
People forget Kauto was about to win this easily before ploughing into the 2nd last and coming to a stop, and still he was only nabbed on the line by Grade 1 winner Our Vic. Denman was having his 3rd run in a short period where he wasn't out of it before he fell and he was against a horse who was fantastic that season who loves flat tracks in Madison Du Burlais. IC always has big gaps between his races for a reason and fresh What a Friend is clearly good when he wants to be. |
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Ground is far too quick, course far too tight, and race will come too soon. He wouldn't be running if there was any alternative race left this season. Obviously he's better than the others but that was true 2 years ago and look what happened there.He could still win, and I'd love to see it, but he's almost certain to run way below his best.
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And pray tell what's going to beat him?
Nacarat? Best when fresh Tom George said and 6 weeks is not 6 months. He's been showed up time and time again as a horse who lacks real class and his last 3 runs ave been mega ordinary. Puchestowns? He's got to be the most overreated chaser in training. Carlol's Legacy? Tough and game and was giving the winner weight at Cheltenham. Preferred to her stable companion but this is a hue leap in class. (Looks booked for 2nd IMO) Deep Purple: Trainer wasn't sure whether he'd run him or not. He'll need to find his very best for to figure and that is unlikely. Follow the Plan? What plan? finish 3rd and take some dosh home is what they will have in mind. The race is a non event or a Denman charity event. Either way he should win will ease. Paul Nichol's came up with the idea of letting him down after the Hennessy and bringing him back for the Gold Cup and it worked well for him but Denman doesn't need a big break between his races. Denman has run in February every year bar one and it's made no difference having won twice and finishing 2nd 3 times now. Course? Against this lot it will take more than a few bends to stop him. 5/4 is a steal |
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looked ill at ease round Aintree's tight track last time Denman ran there. Bit more cut this time but after a hard GC I wouldn't go near him at anything around Evens or odds against.
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il be laying denman at evens before the race. good luck rondetto, things wont go as you think
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no bet race if ever i saw one
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Where are you gojng to get 20k to lay me Revedsivola? Bank robbery is against the law you know
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we shall see who will be laughing at the weekend[;)] if theres not a better evens poke than denman in this race then its time to give up. well, look on the bright side, at least he loves aintree, hasnt had a hard race a few weeks ago, will love the ground and is on a winning streak. good luck with your bet, i hope official ratings make you confident
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I just wonder how worried people would be if he had stood up at Aintree on his last visit?
Madam De Bourlais was upsides and they had already beaten off Exotic Dancer when Denman fell. He handled the course well enough to indicate it won't be a problem against this lot. Cya on the darkside[;)] |
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rondetto your forgetting one think,what age was he back then?hes a bit older now and although he ran a cracking race at cheltenham,that was when he was kept fresh and had not run since his hennessy effort,
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Agreed.
There's alot of sentimental money that goes on Denman (and I backed him in the 09 and 10 Gold Cups!) He's not up against the greatest lot here, but the price looks wrong to me. Yes, he may win. At 2/1 he'd be considered, at 5/4 I'm staying away and probably going to back Punchestowns who has run two shockers at Cheltenham but is fairly consistent otherwise. |
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Anyone who says Denman handled Aintree 2 years ago was watching a different race to me. There were some of us on here pleading for him not to run then and I feel similar about tomorrow. Im going but will avoid betting in the race and probably watch it on a screen. I hope he proves me very very wrong and he wins easily.
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i cant put it any simpler than this.
denmans run in the bowl 2010 was way short of his best. however he was having an awful season and still would have ran madison du berlais close and finished infront of albertas run and our vic (would have been tight with exotic dancer). the tank is lightly raced this season and has shown improved form and a love for the game again. if you took denman out and put madison du berlais, exotic dancer or our vic (from 2010) into the race they would be very short priced favorites. denman will run them into the ground and i will be having a large win bet and a large double with big bucks. come on the tank!! when they doubt you, you always prove them wrong. |
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i hope for you his winning? streak continues
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