The sun is out and its a bit warmer here than it is in the UK I'm happy to say. Its a warm race is the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown. As a four year old Our Connor has improvement to come but he will have to improve quite a lot to make his 3lb weight advantage tell against the Hurricane, Jetzki is a horse going places but again needs to improve a lump to be in the mix with the Hurricane, he also needs to improve on his sloppy jumping!! Not much to say about Hurricane Fly that hasnt already been said but at current Betfair odds of 2.52 it would be madness not back him today, sheer madness.
Adam Kirby has a nice 30% strike rate for Mark Johnston in recent times and the combination can keep on winning in the opener with Jalingo. The colt has earned himself a rating of 72 from his three races so far and appeared to take a step in the right direction last time out when second at Southwell. John Gosden trained the winner that day and has two in the race and jockey bookings suggest that Warbrook is his main hope, with that one failing to improve from his first to his second run the hood is now reached for.
That last race of Warbrook where he finished tenth brought this strange comment from the At The Rcaes of:
WARBROOK (IRE) (12)ATR Tracker 11/2 J2Fav 2 9 - 5
N Mackay
J H M Gosden
-
slowly into stride, towards rear, good headway on wide outside over 1f out, strong run to lead inside final furlong, won going away????
In the 12.35 at Leicester Christopoher Wren is the chosen one. Proving to be a difficult ride the JP McManus owned gelding clearly has talent and at just six years of age we can assume that there is more to come from him. He won over this course and distance on the first day of the month, winning with a bit in hand and I reckon he can more than handle the 8lb rise in the weight for that victory. The 3rd placed horse that day has given the form a boost and at a friendless price of 5.6 to win and 2.78 to place, he is the bet.
In the 1.15 at Sedgefield Un Guet Apens has more scope than any other in the field and can go close in this Class Four Handicap Chase. He ran quite well in a better race at Haydock when he didnt seem to be given the hardest of races by McGuire that day and with Hughes back in the saddle on Boxing Day and running from the same mark he can get his first win over the larger obstacles. He may need further in time but this is no great race.
The Cookie Jar sets a good standard having been placed in a Grade 3 hurdle last time out when McGarvey was unable to take advantage his normal 5lb claim, this is much easier and she can take advantage in what looks a below average Mares Maiden Hurdle.. Trading at 4.6 on Betfair seems a very good price in my opinion.
Even the forum idiot Grimmy couldn't fail to make money from this.
The seller up next at Southwell is a poor race by any standards. Just the four go to post for this 8 furlong race. Of the four only one Stoney Quine has won a race(twice). Although the filly appeared to run porrly last time at the end of the day she was only beaten 5 lengths back in a handicap following her win in a Claimer. Both wins have come on fibresand. Her form is by far the best on offer in this and having gone odds against at 2.18 in the last few moments, Stony Quine is the bet
The New One to win or Zarkander to place? Where is the value in your opinion? The New One is currently 1.51 to win and Zarkander is 1.54 to place? There is every chance that The New One may turn out to be rather special. Was the John Smiths too far when second to Zarkander? I dont think so as The New One had won decisively enough in The Neptune, so we can take it that Zarkander was just the better horse on the day. Both had a good reappearance race this season with The New One disposing of Rock On Ruby (also back for seasonal debut) and Zarkander finishing second to Annie Power in the Coral, giving plenty of weight away. Nicholls horses will often come on quite a bit for a run and taking all things into account is the best bet The New One at 1.51 or Zarkander to place at 1.54? This game can often make fools of us all but at 1.54 its Zarkander for me.
Ballyalton has looked a good prospect for a while now and they way he won a Class 2 Novices event last time out from Oscar Rock suggest that he might be good enough to take this Class 3 Handicap Hurdle. With AP on board doing the crusing then 4.4 on betfair looks good to me.