General Tufto win and place in the last looks a decent bet to me. He has 11 wins to his name at this course with nine of them being over this distance. Al told in Southwell handicaps he has around 50% place ratio, is in decent nick at the moment having run well in his last four races. The first two were 10 lengths clear of the rest last time out. He has been raised 3lbs for that but taking the jockey claim into account he is only 1lb higher in this. Trading at 5.5 and 2.02.
Massena acts on the ground and would have won last time out but a couple of fencing errors. The gelding has competed well at a slightly better level than this recently and not being the strongest race around is taken to come home in first place. Trading at 2.48 earlier the best you can get at the moment is 2.02, still well worth taking in my opinion.
Mr Burbridge has the best form on offer in this event and should come home with the spoils. The way he hit the front around the 12 furlong marker last time suggests that the drop in trip will not inconvenience him one little bit. He is lightly raced for a 6 year old and probably has more improvement to come. The way he took to fibresand on his Southwell debut at the end of December suggests that he will dispose of this field with comfort. Trading on Betfair at 2.08 looks damn good to me.
....but if there was then at a Betfair price currently at 2.6 then Avondhu Lady would certainly come close. Since going over the bigger obstacles the mare has progressed to the tune of 30lbs, her first chase rating being 102 and her most current rating is 132, prior to that she was rated at 109 over hurdles. Back hurdling today she gets in here off a mark of just 104. It doesnt alwasy work out that Chase form transfers to hurdles of course but if she has progressed just one third on her return to the smaller obstacles then she would be very well in here. Her nearest market rivals firstly Girl In Blue, is straight out of maiden hurdles while Sherika is also returning to hurdles but her mark is actually higher than her Chase rating. Avondhu Lady it is at 2.6.
One more today in the 2.30 at Cheltenham I think that Double Ross will go very well. The gelding was all out to win a Grade 3 last time out over course and distance but is in a rich vein of form and cant be ignored in this. He is 2/4 over the course and 3/6 over the distance, appears to still have some improvement in him. Trading at 2.8 looks fair to me.
The Lobstercatcher won nicely last time out and has duly been raided 7lb for his efforts but he has gone well from much higher marks than this in the npast and at the odds is the value bet in this race.
Its Oscar Whisky for me in what is a two horse race. Tarquin Du Seuil may be better off at the weights for for beating my selection a neck when they met here in November but that was a falsely run race and Oscar was having his first run that day for 225 days. They were both coming back after a break of course but rated at 167 over hurdles I think there is a lot more to come from the Henderson horse than there is from the Jonjo horse. Trading at 2.05 looks more than value to me, its Oscar Whisky.
Federici found plenty on his handicap debut and can follow up today despite a penalty for that win. It was a stronger race than this that he won and but for a mistake two out would have won with a lot more in hand. This is just his fifth career race and is one not to be missed. The current price of 3 on Betfair is more than fair enough.
I was hoping to have a nice relaxing holiday away from Betfair for 10 days or so but sometimes things pop up unexpectadly. In the 3.00 at Lingfield tomorrow Jeremy Gask fancies the chances of Street Power. Jeremy is on his way to Australia at the moment on a two week working visit to his homeland but wife Kerrie will be at the course hopefully cheering on a winner.
Street Power looks to be coming to hand again after dropping down the weights this last 12 months or so and is now rated at a very nice 65. Raised just 1lb for his second place last time out when he would have won with a trouble free passage, Street Power rated at 84 last September looks to have the handicap debutant Random Success to beat. Gask expected Street Power to be raised more than the actual 1lb which has allowed the horse to be prepared as normal rather than have to turn him out quickly. His record in Class 6 Handicaps reads 112. Priced up at 100/30 this evening by Skybet and Paddy Power, early doors.
Its mid afternoon here, so back to the beach and a nice long drink.
A bit short but Milosam has brought me out of the sun have a bet on him. He has won his last two with a bit in hand, is entitled to gon on improving at just 6 years of age and I think it will take more than a 10lb rise in the weigths to stop him here.