zzzorro

The inevitable bad run will come along of course.

Made up of :

7 EW bets

Two winners at 23 and 5.7
6 placed at 4.6, 2.1, 3.0. 2.6, 2.02 and 2.78

1 Place Bet.

Placed at 1.54

1 Lay Bet.

Price was 1.83 and lost (successful)

36 win bets,

Winners at,

L
Won 3.14
L
Won 3.0
Won 2.96
Won 3.52
Won 3.1
Won 2.2
Won 2,08
Won 2.6
Won 2.8
Won 7.8
Won 2.05
Won 3
L
Won 2.6
Won2.52
Won
3.9
Won
3.08
Won 1.94
Won 4.9
Won 3.2
Won 5.1
L
Won 2.58
Won 3.95
Won 4.9
Won 3.1
L
Won 1.8
Won 4.1
L
Won 3.7
Won 4.4
Won 2.18
Won 4.6

In the 5.00 at Wolves this afternoon. Derek Shaws three year old gelding has shown slow but steady improvement in his short career to date culminating with a win at Southwell last time out. Prior to that he had shown form in his two race prior to that, both on Polytrack where he was placed both time and beaten by just a neck prior to his Southwell win. Adam McLean rode him that day and does again today taking off a very useful 7lbs. He has the best form on offer here and is currently 2.3 on Betfair.

Staying at Wolves, The Blue Dog is in top form and may well be up to defying a penalty in the 7.30 race. He has won his last two and for those sins now goes in here off a mark of 69, in the past he has gone close off a slightly higher mark before and being in such good form I'm hoping he can go even closer tonight. Currently on Betfair at 2.48.

In the 3.00 I have a fancy that Firth Of The Clyde will prevail. He has shown tremendous improvement for the switch to the bigger obstacles and won a decent Class 3 Handicap at Wetherby last time out. Still very lightly race for a nine year old you can assume that there is more to come from him with the stable in fair form showing four winners from their last twelve runners at a Betfair price of 3.9 he looks good to me.

Shortly after in the 3.20 Hansupfordetroit is the one I like here. Never out of the frame to date in Handicap Chases he won nicely from the front last time out in the mud at Chepstow and if the drop back in trip doesn't inconvenience him then he will go close here. He was a winner over s similar distance at Ballinrobe earlier this year. At a price of 4.9 he looks the value here. 

In the 1.40 at Newcastle Blake Dean looks on a good mark in this handicap hurdle. After a lay off of 451 days he returned to show improved form second time back winning at Handicap Hurdle at Uttoxeter making all and winning despite an error at the last. He has then gone on to finish second twice in handicaps hurdles of this grade. Today Callum Bewley can take off a full 7lbs once again and he must surely go close in this field. At the moment you can get 2.96 on Betfair.

Kettlwell switches his attention to the flat and should prove too strong for this mediocre field.

The Mares Hurdle at Warwick at 12.10 looks a very decent race. Glens Melody has good form behind her on heavy going and a Grade 1 win to boot. She was always struggling after a poor jump at the first last time out and can bounce back to form here. She was no match for Annie Power of course but won four races in good fashion either side that run before her let down at Cheltenham last time out. The going that day was perhaps a little on the fast side for her as well as that poor jump early on and she can bounce back with a win here. On Betfair the current 3.1 looks fair to me.

The 3.50 at Kempton is a competitive Class 3 Handicap Hurdle and I'm reckoning that the in form Deep Trouble will go well enough to at least be in the places. He would have won a Class I handicap Listed Hurdle last time out easier had he not veered right at the last when the jockey lost his irons. He's been raised 8lbs for that win which is fair enough but a repeat of that performance should see him in the money here. The price at the moment on Betfair of 5.5 to win and 2.1 to place looks decent value to me.

In the 4.00 at Wolves the top weight Borough Boy must be in with a chance at a decent sort of price. He won his maiden at this course last October and has since ran with credit since with placed efforts here and at Southwell, winning on fibresand also. The stable is in fine form with three winners from their last four starts. At Betfair prices of 9.8 for the win and 3 for the place, Borough Boy is the choice. 

A poor a maiden race as you are likely to see for a while is the 6.45 at Dundalk this evening. The O'Brien trained Lone Star may well be better than he showed when contesting an 11k EBF Maiden at the Curragh last October when he was never a danger and was beaten around 12 lengths. They have quickly dropped him to the all weather at Dundalk where O'Brien has a 27% strike rate and son Joseph a 32% strike rate. Even at this level he will have to improve to win this, not out of the question of course, when he was making his debut he finished behind another O'Brien inmate who then contested the Racing Post Trophy, finishing last. Play or Lay? Early doors of course but the 1.83 on the Exchanges looks far too short to me and it any decent money becomes available at that price then I think its worth taking him on. Lay.

Alderbrook Lad has three chase wins to his name and won last time out with a little to spare. The 7lb penalty he carrys for that win is fair enough. The only other in the race to have won a race over the bigger obstacles is Surprise Vendor who fell last time out and has made mistakes in other races. All in all it makes the 5.7 to win and 2.6 for the place for Alderbrook Lad very attractive.