zerohype

Hi,

Today we have one Dutch bet.  To back all three at current lay odds you will return approximately 40% profit should one of our horses win.  Our C rated outsider of the three Pabusar with jockey by Jim Crowley on board is currently at 8's and may be worth considering e/w against the A&B horses, and may even move in a couple of ticks for a trade between now and race time.  Worth keeping an eye on!

Dutch of The Day

Newbury 16.20pm 6f Listed

A. Elzaam             
B  Dinkum Diamond            
B  Pabusar

Good luck!

Hi,

An interesting day's racing, with our first dutch getting literally pipped at the post as our A Rated horse ran out of steam claiming a second spot.  Then a great end to the day with a winning dutch in the second race.  A.P. McCoy easing home on Souter Point to grab us a winner! 

Dutch of The Day ABC Results:

5 Races 3 Wins

Race No:       1st      2nd      3rd
R1                 C
R2                 A        C
R3                                       C
R4                           A
R5                 B

Same time tomorrow!

Hi,

Results so far.

Football Tips: 23

Wins: 23    Losses: 0

Dutch of The Day Tips: 3

Wins: 2    Losses: 1

                               (Paying E/W)
Race No:       Win      2nd      3rd
R1                   C
R2                   A         C
R3                                          C

Yesterday's Round Up

Unlucky yesterday with our Dutch of The Day, firstly our C Rated horse became a non runner and then our A rated horse had a terrible fall at the first hurdle.  Our replacement C rated horse Polar Gunner did make up some e/w/place money by securing a third spot if you took my advice from the blog and backed the outsider to place.  If you were trading the outsider as some of my members do, you could have got the Betfair starting price of 19 or close, and possibly traded down as low as 3.35 in play, but if you just backed the C rated horse Polar Gunner e/w or to place, you would have recouped your loss from the A&B horses.  Just shows it's worth covering the outsider for a place spot if the odds are favourable!

So let's get on to today's action with two races to have a go at!

The Dutch of The Day

1410 Salisbury

A - Sacred Shield
B - Istishaara
C - Amistress
Reserve: Apache Glory

17.55 Ludlow

1:  Coeur De Fou             
2:  Souter Point            
6:  The Quantum Kid

Good luck!

Hi,

Going forward let's start each new blog with a results update:

Football Tips

Total Win/Loss: 23/23

Dutch of The Day

Total Win/Loss: 2/2

Race No.        Win       Place     
R1                  C
R2                  A         C             

Yesterdays Round Up

I'm very pleased we had a great day yesterday with two great winners for our first ever Dutch of The Day!  We will do our best to find winning dutch bets each day, but as you know with horses it's impossible to keep a clean sheet. So let me explain how you can profit from these ABC Rated horses each day in other ways other than dutching by looking at yesterday's results.  Although a steady dutching system with good money management will return a profit in the long term, you have options!

If you're an experienced trader or punter today's Dutch of the Day is near the bottom of this post! 

For more information on dutching though you can just type it into Google and you will find many articles and dutching calculators available free of charge.  The basic principle is you are backing multiple selections in an event to win, and if either does so you win an equal profit.

Additionally I cover dutching in more detail in my winning blog post Let's Go Dutch For The National, which you can view here:  http://community.betfair.com/zerohype/blog/2011/04/07/lets-go-dutch-for-the-national

So let's have a look at yesterday's results and how we can profit from our ABC graded selections.  I'm looking at each race differently to try and show how we can choose to work with the ratings throughout the day.

Race One:

3.00 Beverly              

A - Caranbola             Odds moved to 3.00 in play, but tightened up pre race.           
B - Lucky Art             Moved to 2.7 in play, again tightened up pre race.             
C - Highland Warrior    Drifted from 18's to over 40's pre race and then WON!

Looking at this race both our A & B horses could have been backed and hedged pre race, as they moved in a few ticks during the 15 mins before the race started, and also in play for the early stages.  If I'm trading a race though I am looking to go green before the race commences in most cases, and here it would have been possible on the first two.

The C rated horse drifted out wildly to 40's before the race commenced, so with the top two looking like back only selections in this situation you could have backed the C rated horse E/W and A&B to win, or in Betfair's case backed the C rated 'To Place'.  Please check before backing to place or E/W that you know how many horses can place for a winning bet.  As in, 6 horses first two 8 to 16 first 3, 16 plus first 4 etc.  In this case your E/W or place bet would have won, and depending what your stake was covered the first two losing back bets returning a tidy profit. 

In the case of BruceWillis one of Betfair blog followers, he made a nice profit with a small liability backing the C Rated horse for a couple of quid and covering the others with £8.00, so as he backed the C Rated at 40's he made a great profit, nice job!

Additionally if we post two races in our Dutch of The Day post like yesterday, you can do some great multiples using Betfair.  If you're a member of our ABC Ratings then you can do this over the entire day, or I suggest over the stronger rated races throughout the day.

You can add all three horses in each race to win, effectively doing a Double Dutch, :o)  Although I suggest being more creative with this doing some separate E/W multiples along side this.  In this example though you back all three in each race, and create a double from this.  Given yesterdays result with the big outsider winning, the returns would have been impressive as Betfair take SP for there multiples.  This can be applied over many races making different combination bets. 

Always be careful not to go too far with the combinations as it becomes self defeating profit wise, but if you're using our ABC Ratings and selecting the best races of the day, you should be finding regular winning days if you do this correctly.  I'd advise having a look at the multiples on Betfair as I've been using them for some time now if I'm not available to trade the ABC's in the daytime, and I've been winning more than I'm losing which is what it's all about!

Race Two:

4.20 Yarmouth

A - Piano                      Looked comfortable all the way and came through strong to find the WIN!       
B - Shamardal Phantom   Had some movement in play but fell away mid to end of race.
C - Satwa Pearl              Finished 2nd, moved out then in during the race.   

This race looked a favourites race all the way, and it was exactly that.  Piano never broke a sweat and just eased past the chasing pack comfortably on the final straight. 

Now as another example of how the ratings can be used, here if we had done a combination reverse forecast on the three, so if either finish 1st or 2nd we win, this would have been a successful bet.  throughout the day the ABC's throw out usually at least a couple of these winning reverse forecast bets.  Again it comes down to the fact the horses are rated according to many factors, but all of it being statistically based.  Whereas track side and leading up to a race we all know the emotion kicks in which is why we are able to capitalise on value odds for quality horses.

Our C rated horse drifted out before the race and had a terrible start, but in play moved in significantly for a potential profitable trade as it finished 2nd. 

Pre race 10 - 15 mins before the off the top two A & B rated horses could have also been traded for a few ticks each as they started to move in.

So, enough options for now, but hopefully you get my point.  The ABC Ratings will pull out different opportunities throughout the day to trade or bet on, we do the research for you and find the rated horses in different races, it's up to you how you apply this either pre race or in play to make a profit. 

I'll record the days results and post them each day as I have today at the top of the blog, so you can track possible sequences for trading or punting, if there is any other information you require just drop me an email by clicking the send email button at the top.

The Dutch of The Day!

Same example below using a £100.00 as a straight dutch bet, these are the stake requirements and profit returned at current Betfair odds.

2010 Perth              Odds           Stake        Profit

A - Prince Tam           7.2            £25.77       £85.55
B - Sheriff Hall            5.0            £37.11       £85.56
C - Regent's Secret    5.0            £37.11       £85.56 (NR)

Replace C Rated horse with our D rated horse (see comments below) because now our C graded horse is a Non Runner.  So the new C rated horse to replace Regents Secret is Polar Gunner.

Good luck!







   

Hi,

Today's the first day of our Dutch of The Day blog, so let's hope we start with a couple of winners!

Each day at least one graded race will be posted either after 9pm the evening before racing, or before midday on race day. 

Our ABC Ratings are listed in order of horses we have rated in the race with the best chance of winning, obviously with A rated being the highest rated.  The real value of our ABC ratings is that they reduce the field to manageable numbers of possible winners.  The ratings point to the value bets, the horses apparently overpriced in the market that have an outstanding chance of either winning or at least placing at a big price.

They also provide potential for trading, forecast, tricast, combination and dutching bets.  For trading especially, if you find one of our rated horses not in the top three you can often track the horse and see a show of interest before the off, where the odds suddenly move in providing a possible trade off and green up. 

An example of this is 10 - 15 mins before a race when the big money starts piling on the nags, you will usually see one, two or all three of our rated horses moving down in price.  If you spend some time before the race establishing the peak in the graph price for our rated horses, you should very quickly start finding the horse that's going to steam in pre race, and make a profit each day using this information.  Just from these ratings!

We are firm believers in encouraging people to come to their own conclusions about how to use the ratings, this is one of the ways we profit each day using them, either in play or pre race.  I've detailed below what the current Betfair prices are for each of our ABC rated horses, and how much profit a £100.00 dutch on each would return.

You can find dutching calculators on the net, they are readily available free of charge, alternatively you can use the multiples on Betfair to enter all three horses to win. 

Another of the many approaches to profiting from these ratings is, if you have an odds on favourite in the three, back the favourite to win and the other two E/W, or in Betfair's case to place.  I also find Reverse Forecasts are very profitable, and if I create Betfair multiples with all my rated races and horses throughout the day, I'm getting a very good strike rate. 

Or even just use the ratings to spot big Each Way value bets, which are usually very good to trade on both pre play and in play.

It's really your call in the end though, as don't let anyone tell you otherwise, you are just as good a form reader or tipster as any in the country!  All you probably need to make that an inherent fact is discipline, and if you haven't already got it, get that discipline and you'll be laughing all the way home from the bank.

If you’d like fuller details about our dutching or trading approach and how it works, please send me a private message by clicking on the ‘send a message’ link at the top of the page.

As we were supposed to start this yesterday but due to technical difficulties we had to skip it, today we have two graded races for you to get stuck into:

The Dutch of The Day

3.00 Beverly              Odds           Stake            Profit

A - Caranbola                 3.35           £53.88           £80.49
B - Lucky Art                  5.0            £36.10           £80.49        
C - Highland Warrior         18             £10.03           £80.53


4.20 Yarmouth

A - Piano                      2.06            £60.44           £24.51
B - Shamardal Phantom   4.9             £25.41           £25.51
C - Satwa Pearl              8.8             £14.15           £24.52

Remember if you dutch a race, one of your selections MUST win for you to make a profit!

Okay that's it for today, I'll be back tomorrow with another Dutch of The Day and later in the week with another football lay trade selection.

Good luck today if you're following our ABC rated races, or whatever you're trading or punting!

Hi,

Due to some difficulties with IT and being unable to login to Betfair until now, the Dutch Of the Day due to be posted on today's blog isn't going to be possible.  Sorry about that, but out of our hands. 

As long as I can access Betfair later this evening, I will post our Dutch Of The Day for tomorrow's racing.

Have a great day whatever you're trading or punting!

Hi,

This mornings win takes us to 23 winners in a row, which if you've been following our blog from the start, you should have made yourself a nice profit by now!

Chicago edged a fairly entertaining 0-0 draw with Vancouver but failed to break the deadlock.  So a great maximum winner for us!  As I must confess to being fast asleep and left it as a lay bet.

If you're interested in becoming a member and receiving my additional Football trading tips throughout the week, and want to continue making money when the premiership ends and our speciality leagues start, just drop me an email on here and I'll send you the details.

Also if you don't want to miss a tip, whether it's a blog tip or for our members, we have a free sms alert service, and I don't know many bloggers who can say that!

I'll be back mid week with another football selection!

As of tomorrow we start our Best Dutch Of The Day for the horse racing.  We will do our best everyday to pick out a race where 3 horses can either be dutched, or tracked and traded.  The choice is yours, but the horses will be rated appropriately to give you the best chance of a win each day!

Check back tomorrow around lunchtime, and then everyday.

Anyway, if you're watching the title decider between Man U and Chelsea today, may the best team win!

Hi everyone,

Sorry no analysis tonight, and sorry it's so late.  The other game I was watching drifted out too much, so as I'm in a killer rush to finish some work tonight, here's the selection. 


Lay Vancouver away to Chicago @ 5.4s Usual rules apply, trade off if Chicago go ahead or the game drifts on for a draw where the green up looks appealing.

US Football MLS/Fixtures

Kick Off: Sunday 1.30am GMT

Good Luck!

Hi everyone,

I'll have a tip posted later I'm keeping an eye on in the MLS for tomorrow, so if the odds look right I'll post it in plenty of time to get on.

I've sent a tip to my members for today's premiership action already, so good luck today whatever you're trading or punting!

Hi,

We finished April very strongly, with 7 straight winners for our Betfair blog followers, including the Grand National winner and runner up! 

Well it's time to carry on this great run into May, but with so little to trade on other than the Champions league at the start of this week, we are having a slower start than we would like. It looks like it will be Barcelona v Man United in a Wembley Final, that should be an absolute classic!

So onto the weekend, and the lower leagues in England are playing their final league games and there already looks like some good selections there to be had. We also have the play-off finals to look forward to, while the Premiership has another 3 weeks of life left in it.

The end of the Premier League coincides with the major leagues in Brazil kicking off on May 22nd. So all year around we have games to trade and bet on.  We really have plenty more action ahead, and let me tell you home form in Brazil is far stronger than all the European leagues and usually better priced!  Lots of good value to look forward to!

I hope you are having a good week enjoying the rare sunshine, I'll be back in touch Saturday!