zerohype

A question for you if I may....
I placed a lay bet against a Stoke win yesterday and, to put it in basic terms, "bottled it" when they scored first. I closed out the bet taking about 50% of my liability on the chin. With hindsight the match ended in a draw and I would have won the bet.

My question is, when the opening goal goes against you, at what point to do cut your losses??

Thanks.

Hi,

You never cut your losses, you simply trade off when you can, either when the home team goes ahead in this example, or the game drifts on for a draw, then you usually get an email from me letting you know the profit is looking good.

Given the success rate of the tips currently at 92%, and the fact you are only using 5% liability, you can afford to take a small dip occasionally as over the year you will be well ahead!

A game can swing either way in a second, nothing is guaranteed, but the consistency of my choices stays the same for each tip.

Thanks

You did the right thing locking out at the first away goal in my opinion. Too many examples in my books of letting your bet run and losing all your liability. What you can do is to lay the correct score at 0-1 as more than most the score will change as the game opens up.

The problem there is, you could have layed the correct score for a high liability and got out your trade, and it could have stayed 0-1. If you follow a simple system like mine, of well researched trades that win a lot more than they lose, then this is part of your loss recovery in itself. If you're just playing the numbers over a series of games, then yeah you're right trade off and cut your losses as you will probably need to. In this instance gameplan63 lost money when he didn't have to. At the point of the goal it was early in the match, and Villa were at home! Different opinions make trading what it is though!

For a beginner like me it is interesting to see the difference in opinions...! I guess it boils down to confidence in your own system and your risk appetite..

Hi Gameplan63, I guess as a beginner it's interesting to you, but it's only opinions if it hasn't been proved again and again. The thing is with this football system is, it's based on strong home win/draw's (mostly), and has a strike rate over 90% year in year out. With other trading systems used in different situations minimising losses is something you have to do, but I decided to post this system on my Betfair blog as it's the most straight forward which has generated successful trades each year, with the highest conversion rate. Which means it's easy to blog for me, and gives my Betfair followers something simple to make regular money using.