zerohype

Hi,

We recently launched our ABC Horse Ratings system, and we're getting great feedback from members already making steady profits.  We're about to start posting regular daily horse racing free blog tips, which should commence from the start of May.

So given that it's the Grand National on Saturday, the hardest race in the world to predict a winner, we thought we should have a go using the dutching system used on the ABC Ratings.

If you don't know what dutching is I recommend you go searching on Google firstly, and also find yourself a decent dutching calculator to have a play around with before you start placing bets.  We use an API software product to run the Betfair exchange, and this has a built in Dutching facility to make life a lot simpler, but there are plenty of free online calcs out there on the net, which can be found easily and used for simple dutching bets. 

So what is dutching?

Without boring you all to tears with a history lesson about how the system originated, which I believe was from Al Capone's accountant, but don't shoot me if I'm wrong!  If you search Google for 'what is dutching' we get, 'In gambling, Dutching is sharing the risk of losing across a number or runners by backing more than one selection in a race or event. The process calculates the correct stake to place on each selection so that the return is the same if any of them wins'.

Which in a nutshell is dutching! You can add all kinds of amazing variables to this system with the advent of Betfair unlocking trading capabilities around your dutching, but for our ABC System and our Grand National selections, we are simply backing all selected ABCDE or just the ABC runners if you're really feeling lucky, to give us an equal profit should any of them win!

Peter Flynn from betting.betfair.com recently put up an article about dutching which is definitely worth a read.  You can find it here:

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/bloggers/dutching-on-betfair-simply-better-than-the-rest-and-her-290311.

Ok folks, here’s the Zerohype dutching bet for The Grand National……….

Unlike our subscriber dutching selections, this will be a five horse dutch bet for us, and as our members will already be aware of, A-E are our selections in preferred order, with F & G as our reserves, also in preferred order.

Analysis:

In common with the winner of the last ten nationals, all of the below selections have won on at least one occasion at 3miles or more, and have all won a chase of at least £17,000.  Also, in common with all National winners since 1990, all of our selections are at least 8 years old.

A – Big Fella Thanks – performed well in the last two nationals, and was joint favourite last year, finishing a respectable fourth. Good on this course, and is well rested, ready for this run.

B – Silver by Nature – First timer to the national, but has good stamina and is performing well in recent races.

C –Ballabriggs – A very strong contender and has landed some cracking wins. Comes from a good trainer who will have done his best on this horse.

D - Oscar Time – Hasn’t won for a while, and isn’t quite as good as the above selections but is in excellent form lately and should enjoy this run.

E – Niche Market – A good selection to finish off our five horse dutch. Had a good run in his last national and Paul Nicholls will have worked his stuff on this horse since 2010. An experienced chase horse that should be in good form for this one.

Our Reserves:

F – Calgary Bay

G – Bluesea Cracker


The example below demonstrates how to dutch our Grand National selections, and shows the benefit of using this system to increase your prospects of winning more often.

This is out of a possible dutch for the five ABCDE rated horses, at the current national odds prices on Betfair, using a total stake of £100.00 split between all five horses, gives an equal profit should any of the horses win, of £279.40 approx.

Selection:         Odds:       Stake:       Profit:

Big Fella Thanks    24.0        £15.81       £279.45 

Silver by Nature    17.0        £22.32       £279.45

Ballabriggs            18.5        £20.51       £279.45

Oscar Time          14.5        £26.17       £279.48

Niche Market        25.0        £15.18       £279.51

As you can see each outcome shows a virtually equal profit.

We will have our usual football tips for the weekend, hoping to add to our winning run of 16 in a row, so remember to check back either Friday evening or Saturday morning if you follow our football trades.

So all that remains to say is good luck at the National, we obviously hope our selections bring us all a winner, and you enjoy an entertaining and profitable days racing!