A tough race but this is how I see the runners chances:
Mayneda Strategy-This horse has a great deal of talent but too much weight against these with 58kg. He is 8th up and I see no improvement, where is many others are on an upward spiral.
Seduced-This is the horse I am most scared of! Third up to a suitable distance and a great run last start in the Chester Manifold. I’m hoping Procida get stalk her and come off her back.
Court Ya-She won a similar race here 10 day’s ago and is a nice horse who can lead or be ridden cold. The outside barrier is a little tricky so Newitt may have to burn some energy getting to the lead. A definite top 3 chance but rarely win’s.
Seeking Chi-A good honest horse but they have been coming back in distance for 3 run’s! Obviously her best distance is a mile and she get’s that today. An allowance helps but she’s not for me.
Spirit Song-A false favourite, in the paper anyway! A talented horse but racing against some good, strong opposition. She is dropping 200m but also class drop. A top 5 hope.
God Help Her-A great chance at 1400m but over a mile today there are big distance doubts for me. A great place chance.
Procida-I LIKE HER. She is a grey that always motor’s home. She need’s to be ridden to click up as soon as the pace goes’s on. Her only start this T&D was a 4th to Limerock. Pretty smart form. She is 4th up, weighted well and drawn to do something. My top pick.
Attivita-Maybe over longer
L’inquisitor-Needs it a little longer but she will be a big price place chance.
Efficacious-Would need to improve sharply.
Rhiannon’s Joy-An amazingly bred mare who beat a decent horse last start. I would be very surprised to see her win in this class to be honest.
In the 3rd race at Mornington tomorrow is a Moody horse who ran into a smart one on it's debut. Benleigh is a half brother to Danleigh and ran 2nd two weeks ago to a galloper going places in Blue Music. Today with Nolan in the saddle should see him beat this lot. All but Venomous Clive are exposed as average types and even though he is well bred and promising, he must give the selection 1.5 kg's. Not a huge price expected but should be going on to much better thing's.
Mornington
Race 3 No 4-Benleigh-2 Point Win at SP
My Free tipping page is 4 out of 4. Two tips tom. Check it out and shortcut it:
Hobart
Race 5 No 9- Relentless Pursuit-1 point e/w at SP
Race's ABANDONED-Profit 0.00
Warrnambool
Race 1 No 4-Baremin-1 point e/w at SP
1st@5/2($3.50)-Profit 3.12 points
Total Profit/Loss +10.62 Points
On to Thursday's tip's:
At Seymour tomorrow the first two races have excellent winning chances for us. In the 1st race, a promising daughter of Mossman, Jazzed, line’s up for her 3rd start that looks, on paper, a very weak 5F maiden. In her first ever run, she led and was beaten 4.25L behind subsequent Saturday city winner Empress Cleo. Her second start found her beaten 4.4L behind Wilshire Flyer who is another horse going places. On that occasion she was ridden by apprentice T. Rodder. Today with C. Robertson on board, we should see a nice performance. Being by Mossman I would expect she would like a little give in the ground as well. She is up against a few good maidens who have all placed in good races, but none of their form can stack up to Jazzed. So hopefully punters will steer clear of her and give us a nice price!