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gone for a fave at wetherby , 5.25 in Manor Park.
only opposition is whispering death and is a dog ,so barring accidents it is home and hosed. gett onn ! |
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charge!
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4/1 on shot imo
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Gart-Southport won :D
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Also gone for one at Wetherby
CLASSIC CONTOURS in the 1st. Again, hopefully get some points on the board |
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My selection let me down once again, I think I'll give up on that fella now.
Good luck rest of the week. |
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manor park won as it should at 4/7.... no more seconds now!!!!
16pts |
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skipper,
a thought: if we are going to win this we may need another 500 pts and win two months in a row, so is it worth trying to get a monster at 33/1 plus because of the bonus points involved or just go for top 3? if going for a monster should we colaborate on a particular race or if we find one, then put it to the team for consideration? or are we too far gone now? |
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Well done today Gart, and fingers crossed for you tonight YI.
I love your fighting talk Gart - we won the KO cup but are still not ruling out the double! Its almost like the boxer,miles behind on points going into the last round, and needs a knock-out to have any chance of winning. I am happy to go with the flow - mathematically we need to balance this against winning the monthly comp to get 9 points, keeping an eye on the cumulatives as we could still get an extra 5 points for having the most points in the season, but I cant see this alone being enough, especially given the Humbugs position. OK I will not sit on the fence. . . For what its worth, as I see it at the begining of the year the objective/goal was to win the competition, and as we stand now the odds are well stacked against us acheiving this. The only we can do this now is in the manner you suggest. Theres no money at stake so why not go for it? perhaps starting next week. It could almost be a mini comp between us to find the longest priced winner before the season was out, or most individual cumulative points in the last 6 weeks? Daft as it sounds if we were all looking at 10/1 + shots, one winner at theses odds would probably win most weeks anyway. Unless this approach caused any arguments between us, this could probably rekindle a little bit more interest for us in the final 6 weeks or so? and as league winners last year, cup holders this year we have had a good 12 months come what may. regards HH |
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might as well go for it like the man says, nothin under 10/1 from me from now on, win only :)
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as a maths oriented bloke i would say that with very few chances left it is far far better to go for one at 40/1 than trying to get 4 at 9/1
with 8 selections left 4 9/1 winners exactly out of 8 is a 216/1 shot 5 @9/1 is 2500/1. as above, exactly one 40/1 shot winner and 7 losers is a 5/1 shot !!! and none is a 2/9 shot , two is 66/1!!!!! assuming probabilities are as odds shown. and since no downside matters except to pride, the answer is simples. so in the last week.... exactly one 9/1 winner and 7 losers is a 9/4 shot and none is 11/8! i stand corrected of course!!!!!! |
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step forward Tipolino in 4.15 @ Punchestown
you knew it was coming :^0 |
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33/1 with PP
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i'm the egit trying to get £2 at 250.0
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having said that sizing europe looks very well supported at odds on
so maybe thats a no no in this case. |
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Whats the final decision on this are we looking at 40/1 shots ?
If this was the case i would be for picking a race where we could go mob handed, ie 3 or 4 of us pick a big sprint where the field can be narrowed on draw bias etc. Forget the favs and select a few rags ? That surely would give us a better chance than selecting individual races for 40/1 shots. I am open to any ideas just let me know whats required. |
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Good shout TTO, i like the 100pts win :-)
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Do you think UD will notice?
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Hope not
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wd TTO , a very good winner for us, 45 pts keeps us in the hunt.
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Well done TTO
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Div 1
[pre]Total Team Sels Individual Scores 60.71...Northern Punts........(5).. 45.00 15.71 42.50...Dunter's Punters......(3).. 22.50 20.00 41.25...Humbug................(4).. 41.25 11.00...Racing Demons.........(1).. 11.00 [/pre] Div 2 [pre]Total Team Sels Individual Scores 90.00...Each Way Thieves......(4).. 55.00 35.00 34.38...Lucky Pin Club........(3).. 25.00 09.38 16.67...International Newbies.(1).. 16.67 15.00...AW Barons.............(4).. 15.00 [/pre] |
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I won't be around tomorrow afternoon so in the unlikely event of a non runner please replace mine.
I have gone in on early race hoping Frankie can do the biz on Ashram Best of luck those yet to post |
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Well done TTO-what did you pick btw?
Our group email is going down a bomb :D lol |
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No wonder I miised it...5.45...i was watching Neighbours :D :D :D
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*missed
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mully, any word from lucindas yard about coming runners? Have a wee fancy for Arran law at kelso tomorrow.
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I'll text or call in the morning ;-)
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TTO-There's more confidence around Quws Law than Arran. I'll back the latter e/w though.
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Selections update
[pre]Div 1 NORTHERN PUNTS: 60.71 (45.00 15.71 ) thurnscoe thunder.......................................... Mully........................Battle Group - 5.35 Chel......EW hoof hearted.................Ashram - 1.50 Newm............W RACING DEMONS: 11.00 (11.00 ) foxy.........................Gaelic Flight - 3.15 Chel.....EW jimnast......................High Twelve - 2.25 Newm.......EW undecided/wcard..............Woolfall Treasure - 3.40 Ne...EW PRODELLBOY................................................. One Shot 2 Shot..............Phantasy Rock - 5.20 Cork.....EW DFCIRONMAN................................................. Cath22.......................Interlace - 4.00 Catt.........W HUMBUG: 41.25 (41.25 ) barny...................................................... Lampus.......................Silk Drum - 3.30 Kel..........W Deep Impact................................................ salmon spray............................................... DUNTER'S PUNTERS: 42.50 (22.50 20.00 ) dunter1......................Urban Poet - 5.25 Newm........W The Grey One.................Ring The Boss - 2.15 Catt.....W platinni.....................Jumbajukba - 4.10 Cork........W sixtwosix.................................................. wildcard................................................... Div 2 EACH WAY THIEVES: 90.00 (55.00 35.00 ) jb54....................................................... stewpot.................................................... Tingle Creek.................Fair Along - 3.40 Newm........EW temples gate............................................... INTERNATIONAL NEWBIES: 16.67 (16.67 ) Moose........................Never On Sunday - 3.00 Ne.....EW The Laying Don............................................. custardcream64............................................. bosstipper...................Sweetheart - 3.40 Newm........EW trev w..................................................... wildcard................................................... bally2711....................Twice Over - 3.00 Newm........EW AW BARONS: 15.00 (15.00 ) Ricky Santini.............................................. the mole................................................... Muqbil..................................................... Quito...................................................... LUCKY PIN CLUB: 34.38 (25.00 09.38 ) the man......................Bailey`s Vision - 4.00 Catt...EW FCH..........................Silver Grecian - 2.25 Newm....EW book....................................................... fundamentalist...............Private Be - 3.15 Chel........W krl........................................................ [/pre] |
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thanks mully.
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I´ve read the earlier posts about trying to win the league with 40-1 shots and I would like to add my tuppence worth.
While I don´t agree with going for 40-1 shots just for the sake of it - and definitely not going into a big handicap mob handed - I would say if you fancy something at a big price don´t hesitate to go for it. I also think that if we want to at least make a respectable show we need to be looking at win only, and nothing less that 4-1. And imo I would say forget about waiting till the big race on a Saturday, as Sat is the most difficult day and the races are usually too competitive. I would welcome any feedback. |
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i think we need to win this month first and then think about longshots.
my maths proof essentially says that if there is no downside to losing ie winning is everything then when close to the end go for it because its not worth going in half hearted with 10/1 shots. but 2pts in the month competition is equivalent to 200 on the odds or a 20/1 shot so hence lets get 9pts this month first. the only down side is the position ie we could get stuffed and look poor so in english "tracked leaders, switched outside , rapid headway inside final furlong to win on line" lets hope we dont get boxed in with nowhere to go! |
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i think TTO, that you dont want to look like a duffer and that's understandable; but going for a horse at 40/1 with a genuine 2.5 % chance of winning is not going for one for the sake of it. i would say that
it is the ONLY way to WIN and to do it late as i have shown. so lets vote a)respectable b) win but with the chance of fading as i said we must win this months comp and get the 9 pts its too early to be chancing it and it still keeps us respectable :) vote b) in last two weeks of next month! |
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having said all that the humbugs look home and hosed and are some way in front of us so maybe a good finish is the best we can hope for. gl
everyone next week. |
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I'm with Gart on this -but lets initially concentrate on trying to win this month.
Best of luck this week |
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HH not sure if you know the link, but use the following for trials and cards for Donny.
Fri and Sat trials generally up mid to late afternoon. http://www.meadowcourtstadium.net/page5.html |
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Thanks TT , much appreciated.
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Gone for one each way tomorrow Scrapper Smith 5.00 A
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ok, gone for a longshot on the nose like i think we sort of agreed on?
good luck today |