Please explane 1D moving in....

1D have no chance of winning this GTL.

Wonder what price Rebecca will be if 1D are first out tonight?

but why bother ramping?  presumably simon would rather matt/rebecca in the final 2?

the change to the format in opening voting lines has thrown me a bit.  the two big guns on first is a surprise, but quite possibly a big advantage with lines opening early.  too many new parameters this year for comfort.

you were the one who mentioned ramping gym

..but by previous standards its been pretty tame stuff.

Cowell hardly went for 1d at all, underwheming I'd have said. He made no effort to push their vote.
He was ramping them much harder in previous weeks.

Don't think they'll win but they might shorten up quite a bit more after they sing Torn.

They did this at the judges house auditions with just an acoustic guitar and no backing and it was pretty good and yet since they've been rubbish and never really improved on that performance.

With a good rendition of this and average from the other 2 it could go close.

good points on the ramping in fairness.  i thought the "they like animals" comment was just bizarre!!

GTL don't know where you see a cowell ramp on the brats? Opposite is the case. Beccy is still the chosen one imo but she blew her chance to catch matt last night. Cowell gave her it and she blew it fair and square.

I've said this elsewhere but beccy having 2 slots before adverts, subiminal "vote rebecca" signs in the crowd (ITV signs not placards), cowell even said after 1D performed that matt and beccy were better

Polls opening early is a red herring. Won't affect result.

Forget also 5 towns/cities voting for 1D.  Do an advanced twitter search in those places and its dead as a dodo. Who'd vote on that basis anyway?

I could be wrong (and it will be expensive) but I got the distinct impression both LouLou and Cowell knew 1d were beat on the xtra factor. They tend to let their guard down a little on this show, and both seemed inclined to swerve the questions relating to 1d and winning.

drum

That's exactly what I think.  When they did that at the judges house to try and get through to the finals I thought 'hang on a minute these kids have just been thrown together and they're quite good'.  I kept them onside as a 'taker' because of it yet since then the've done nothing as good as that imo.  Eventually about 6 weeks ago I layed them and they've still done nothing since.  they can't win it surely.

gym

matt absolutely p1ssing it on the latest survation

54/32/17

beats OD in a play off 80/20

beats rebecca 65/35

Big bias towards the 'male gamblers' sample there though isn't it aa?

sorry
54/29/17

stu

Can you understand why Rebecca's drifted so much.  Whatever happens she must beat the boyband surely?  I don't get it.

of course but..

you gov,the sun ,digital spy

the list goes on.

Off official XF site;more ramping for beccy or are they playing all the songs?

jayne2302 Comment approved

Wednesday, 08 December 2010 12:26 AM

Dont know if it is just me but does anyone think Rebecca is being given an unfair advantage in the days leading up to the final.
ON TWO OCCASIONS TODAY I HAVE HARD REBECCAS SONG YOUVE GOT TO GIVE ME LOVE AIRED ON KISS RADIO.

Seems very unfair to the other contestants with just a few days to go before the final - why should her singing be aired lived on radio but not the other contestants songs.

No, haven't got a clue, other than the fact that the screams for 1D influenced the market overly.

cheers aa.  are those stats: matt/1d/becca or matt/becca/1d??

matt/becca/one d

thanks!!

stu

It's ridiculous though.  She never did anything wrong last night I don't think and at a push would say she was the best of a bad bunch on the night.  the screaming few in the audience push her out to 6/1 and them into 5/2 almost?  Strange.

For me the  "they like animals" ,comment was a virtual admission from Cowell that they had no chance and he couldn't be arsed to give them a serious ramp

At this stage of the game, I’m not sure it really it matters to Scowell which one actually win the thing now.  With the likes of previous runners-up JLS doing well and previous winners like Joe McElderley not doing so well, it looks like Scowell is covering all bases this year by giving all the finalists a record deal. 

I agree with fll - the animal comment just looked like he couldn't be bothered ramping them anymore - he's done enough to get them this far.

You know the answer already Papa. Sit tight

The biggest skill in a successful gambler's armoury imo is to apply their own perceived probabilities to the prevailing market. The more the market is out of line with your own opinion, the better.

Giggs for spoty [;)]

Yep Giggs was a big one. Specials is a great medium to play on because the markets are rarely efficient. XF is the biggest yet it is error ridden, such as Waggy trading sub 10.

Stay cool fellow Matt 1 Rebbeca 2 forecast punters no chance of them winning it even becca fans would vote for Matt if those little rats go into the last two

Dom Joly 5s to win IAC

I dont know if 1D will come 2nd or 3rd but they surely can not win.I base this assumption on the Yougov poll.The difference between 1D and Matt in this poll was too large.

And Yougov is highly respected company who uses scientific methods.And although their main area is political opinion polls,they have a reputation to lose if 1D win.

Even if 1D beat Rebecca it would harm their reputation as the difference between 1D and Rebecca was quite large too.

Kara fav on SCD right now, I find it hard to believe that is reflective of her true chances. A bit of judges' ramping, and look what you get...

everything will change once the betting starts

It's the silent majority vs the vocal minority. Matt/Rebecca fans vs OD. Just cos they're making the most noise doesn't mean there's very many of them.

is the price move not a worry though othh?  beginning to sh!t me up a touch!

You might also fear the multivote, but actually they have far less phone credit than the parents...

Have a look on Twitter, tons of 1D fans saying they've voted 10-20 times. Multivote could swing it.

Gym,Golden Rule 1 Marmite Never Wins, Golden Rule 2 There is no Insider Trading on here [;)]

Take a chill pill and a camberwell carrot

And find out the results next week [;)]

I think a large glass of George Baileys might be in order around 9.20

If not the carrot

Girls aged 8-20 make up around 7% of the UK population.

ahem, sounds like you have intimate knowledge ot [;)]

George Bailey

If Matt wins this, it's christmas time, I've won a nice few bob, a bottle of chmapgne at the ready to celebrate and an Indian takeaway tonight.  It really will be  'A Wonderful life'.  Even Helmuthian Folds and GymTanLaundry will be wishing me well just like in the movie!  If I hear a bell ring tonight after the final results I'll know George!

Clarence

It's all to do with the bail conditions, George.

I hope they don't restrict your internet access old chum [;)]

I've held the beccy line as long as I could Lou but have thrown in the towell based on the "exit polls".  Frustrated because beccy didn't need to raise her game that much to be in the hunt but sadly she just doesn't have the presence needed.

Last night they humiliated her by dressing her as a "singing candle" and then got the stage hands to turn the cake they had her on. I just hope Biffa doesn't opt for a "slow" version of "single ladies" wich would be too cruel ie by highlighting that she can't even walk and sing never mind do what Beyonce can do.

Can't see post about who goes out and when...is it as the show starts ot do they all get to sing??

George

Did you see my post about I can't understand why Matt isn't doing 'First Time Ever' tonight?  It's his real killer blow or even 'Nights in White SATIN' so why not do them I don't get it?  Vocal problems is all I can think.

because, dingbat head, he's sung it twice already.....

gtl, i am exactly the same as you, spooked to hell by one d's price and momentum, and encouraged by gb, fll etc saying they have no chance....

really dont want to lay off my winnings on matt, but cant afford a 12k swing....

it's 4 hours away and i am already s hitting myself

i am convinced one d will beat rebecca and then it's going to get real bad

Ii think it would be a big mistake if he did a girly song tonight.  His voice is fuuckd and he can't hit the notes. Why risk it? He has no real competition any more so just needs to avoid doing a Devon Loch.  he could probably go on and faart the national anthem and still win at this point.

Plus who wants to her "First Time" a "Third Time"?

His best bet is to break down in tears like James Brown and get helped off stage...then weigh the votes [;)]

didn't really want to hear "first time" the first time tbh.  dull dull dull....

yep, tears are a surefire votewinner, and he would be best advised to weep a bit

gb, i know you are slightly repeating yourself so apologies for this, but how confident are you in percentage terms that one d cannot win. i mean, would it be completely unprecdented in your experience for there to be the type of late swing needed to turnh this round...

presume the leon rhydian thing is mentioned in dispatches, but presume rhydian can be explained away be him being slightly odd and arrogant, never mind albino and welsh

Leon had mass vote appeal, 1d certainly do not

ffs, stop panicking you lot

No wonder the 1d price is stupid short, you're all backing them

rhydian was brought down by one of the all time biggest regional efforts here.

it was the stuff of legends.

pre recession...i doubt there will be another one for a long time.

how many people voted once for rhydian and left it at that....because it seemed a cake walk.
up here..they're still paying the phone bills

Nick imo rhyddian lost because ultimately he was too marmite to win. No comparison here. Matt is as likeably bland as he needs to be to have a cross over appeal. All demographics will vote for him enough to win.

Personally I think he is a sleaze ball but the GBP has not seen through him as I thought they would and it is too late now I think. Pic of him somewhere today with a handwritten sign saying "kiss me resting voice". Unshaved he just looks like a dirty old(ish) man. I still hope beccy wins.

Re 1D ask yourself where the 6 or 7 million votes will come from? Over 40s..nah? young mums...some but mostly for matt.

OTHH summed it up when he said silent majority wins these things and they ain't going for 1D.

JLS slightly older so different demographic.

Still don't know when first one goes tonight...anyone?

no i am resisting gb, but if they win it will cost me, for me, a hell of a lot of money, doesnt really bear thinking about...so yeah, slightly panicking...

how sure are you about matt george brush?

It would be my biggest loss (not that I've had many;)) if 1D won and would wipe all my elimination wins.

I'd be astonished if they won. I still believe Rebecca was the only one capable of catching Matt and with her disappointing slightly last night  Matt will absolutely p1ss up imo

Good point aa. According to some on here though the regional vote is worthless [;)]

Of course the perception that 1d might win will increase the Matt and Rebecca vote

I think he will put this to bed with "Firework" .

..and I'm not as confident as I was that Rebecca will get 2nd, but she's still the favourite for that spot.

btw, 4.0 on the trio on here and under that for the matt/rebecca 1,2

interesting point gb, and possibly very valid...

cheers chaps, allayed my considerable fears, best of luck, all of you, let's take em to the cleaners...

The ramping of Cowell and Robbie of the regional thing for each of the 1D lads stank of desperation last night. Niall, Dublin - pmsl
He's from a one horse town about an hour away.

When you talk about regional vote - last weekend WAS a regional vote for Mary Byrne. Every Sunday red top had her ramped to the max. Front pages across the board and numbers to call for her from RoI.

Interestingly today - nada for 1D. One minute snippet on the front of the NOTW with a pic of Niall on it. Inside it leads to a story of Matt will get 6m for the win and the rest 1.2m from Cowell. No numbers in any of the tabloids and no encouragement to vote for 1D!

I think AA may be on the money with his assessment that there's been a fair bit of market manipulation for 1D. This may sound very machiavellian, but would Cowell be bothered with that??
The High St might if they think there'll be a shed load of screaming mug money coming for them, together with all the SyCo puppets ramping them also. Good lay for them at the current prices. I may be looking too much into this. But even for Cowell, to move the market on here would be chump change to him in the broader scale of things. I'm certainly no expert on markets - there are many more on here that are better in that regard, but markets are sometimes wrong. And I'm of that opinion right now with 1D.

I've seen it before in reality markets on Irish tv. Given, they're much smaller markets and therefore easier to manipulate. High Streets pricing it up ridiculously. It's up to us to see the wood from the trees and trust our judgement at times, not what the market tells us.
That's why I wonder about this current lark with 1D, which seems to defy all info and stats that we have for the past number of weeks. If it were by screamometer 1 D should then be 1/3 shot! It ain't, though!

I think a lot of people on here are of the opinion that the 1D market price is simply wrong. A bit like Vinnie a while back in CBB. Blokes punting on "their" bloke to win, when he hadn't a chance in hell of winning with the way he was carrying on. Yet the money kept coming for him.

I'd be interested to think what the regs think about this. Would the High Sts or even Cowell be @r$ed with this blarney?

The only reason for the plunge on 1 Direction was because of the highlight preview which showed screaming teenagers everywhere they turned up during the week. The market reacts the same on big brother when there are cheers or boos in the crowd.

The preview clip last night on xfactor showed about 400 teenagers going wild for 1 Direction but i would say that was to be expected.

1 Direction finish third for me.

some players really bailing out on rebecca atm.

1D at 3.35 now, and Rebecca out at 9.6!

Rebecca at 9.60 - an ALL TIME HIGH! This is a brave new world of madness. As I said last night, she has out-polled OD the past five weeks.

Amazing scenes Surely a back to lay of Cher/Stay proportions?

9.6

just caught up.  Regards SCowell's ramping:  I don't think he hardly bothered last night.  There was one point he was almost making a "sorry you're not going to win" sort of speech, a bit like he did to Rhydian, when he was going on about how much he'd enjoyed working with them, etc.  I think I commented on it on the IR thread.

Flip flop 1d 1 matt 2 now shorter than matt 1 beccy 2. The world's gone mad [smiley:crazy]

most punters seemed to be more impressed by the screams of a 150 girls in the audience

rather than the great man himself

150 screaming girls v cowell giving up the ghost on them...mmm let me think that one through.

As othh says... a brave new world of madness!

squares, just got in, u r the best judge on this, to save me trawling through tens of threads what is your opinion of 1,2,3 please? Myself on matt but his and rebeccas songs last nite awful and od had 2 good songs imo, til last nite thought no chance but now wandering, also no gr8 songs tnte that i can see for most people viewing.

I think the insiders know Rebecca is 3rd .Hope she improves
tonight to get more votes the insiders don't know.

I mentioned it before on a previous post about the 'betfair forum experts' being convinced One Direction don't really have a chance (a few have admitted they 'can' win at a stretch - but nobody expects them to.) and even now with Rebecca on a big drift, most still think they will be third. In regards to people saying Cowell has 'given up on them' - what if they do actually win?  Does this mean the forum is a bad judge of body language or that Cowell doesn't actually know the results and has only just assumed they won't win due to polls etc?

Sq - I agree SC wasn't as out there with his ramping of 1D as he has been. The guy wants to maintain a sane level of credibility. I was referring to his regional "appeal" when he had to glance at his prompt card to remember their respective homeplaces (or nearest city with a significant population), which smells trouble for them imo.

If 1D wins novelty it will just mean we need to rewrite the voting demographic text book.

I think cowell has just given enough clues to confirm they are well off the pace. If they were in the race his promise to get them to the final would have been raised somewhat.

I guess there is a discussion to be had comparing JLS and 1D and what differentiates them.  In terms of performance JLS were up against a good performer in Alexandra...better than Rebecca I'm sorry to say

Age profile of act and voters favoured JLS I think.

That and his reaction when they got through last night.  I've never seen him go so OTT as that before.  And it wasn't acting.

doorman, I think you must have me muddled up with someone else. 

I did quite a detailed write up on nick's opinions of last night thread, but for me the contestants are more or less riding on their previous performances and the fans they have already accrued along the way.  I am still convinced it will be a Matt, Rebecca, OD finish.

Whether anything will happen to change my opinion of that, I don't know yet.

INX, yes, it seemed to be like he was going through the motions but not in a rampant way

If we on the forum are reasonably representative of punters at large, I would guess that these market moves today demonstrate the following in response to last night's show:

- Rebecca didn't do enough to challenge Matt to win, therefore people are bailing out after topping up on her all last week

- Likewise One Direction did more than expected and could yet emerge as the main threat to Matt, so people are just covering the bases

I don't think it's any more sinister than that.  The market still tells you that Matt should win, and win fairly easily.  We'll soon see!

Cowell would have been delighted if Cher had turned it around with 1D. i suspect he rates her very highly indeed (out of xf)

Thanks squares, hope you are right.

agree Cider

Matt is 100% guna beat 1D, I really need Becca to beat them as well. If she is behind 1d tonight then she aint got much time to overhall them.

Logic would say that if 1D couldnt come top 2 with the public in the first 9 weeks then how the hell are they guna do it with an extra 2/3 million votes that they will have for the final.

Eggnog won the first 6 weeks for cries sake and even he couldnt come second.

I wanted more from becca last night to make it safe for a 1D third (her song/duet choices could not have been much worse last night) but I still think she gets third.

Im guessing the 3 way vote is something like 50/27/23, if becca had a good night last night it would be more like 47/34/19.

*think she gets second

I think maybe there is cheating on a grand scale.Maybe the bookies
are involved as I am sure they have a network of people that
are able to get this info.

George you say it will "just mean we need to rewrite the voting demographic text book"!! Just?! It would change everything. Look at what seanvice is predicting - 50/27/23!! And that's a similar theme to most people on here. If One Direction pull this off, it would leave everybody no option but to rip up previous theories and start all over again.

No cheating no insider information. NAP. HS bookies limit bets to a few quid ffs.

just to make clear that is Matt 50, Becca 27, 1D 23

Don't think it's insider money but you would think with sky/virgin media interactive voting as well someone could easily have a gander

nba

One D are 3.4 not 14s a la Leon and Bez.

We all have to look after ourselves..we've all had highs and  lows.

earlier weeks there was always Wagner shortening up for elimination during Sunday afternoon/evening.

Bring back postal votes like with Opportunity Knocks..no cheating with Hughie Green

a scream-o-meter instead of the old clapometer and OD are home and hosed.

attitude adjuster - no back tracking please!!!! You've all been acting like One Direction might as well be 100/1!!! I don't want anyone on here to say "well we always thought it would be close" if one direction win! Nobody is allowed to say that ok?!! You've all convinced me that Matt will win so I'm not expecting anything else. But i would like to be shocked.

I've not layed off nba