Sun YouGov Poll.

cheers fll - what's holding matt's price up then?

i guess just because you intend to vote for someone doesn't mean you will, but still - surely he's too big?

Gawd knows. Maybe Lou is laying off ;)

A very healthy lead for the tosspot

actually more startling is that one d figure!!  i know othh said they were kind of struggling, but that is way lower than i expected....

No under 18's, but I'm not convinced they vote that much.

Also in the Sun.

Her other act Rebecca Ferguson got a lifeline after learning she'll sing LAST - an advantage as viewers wait to hear all the songs before voting.

wow - very unusual for this to be made public....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/polls/poll.html?pollId=1022386

NEW UP TO DATE POLL FOR SATURDAY 11TH DECEMBER 2010 ON A NATIONWIDE VOTERS POLL GIVES REBECCA A MASSIVE LEAD.

FLL how do you know no under 18s? I heard they were including them this time?

One D look like their battle is to beat Cher...

The Sun poll was spot on last year - be interesting to see how it works out this year.

Rebecca being on last isn't going to make much difference at this stage imo - might make it seem fractionally more competitive until Matt romps home.

Not on what I've seen, but what I've seen has it closer between Rebecca and Matt too

GTL - It might just be a punt from the Sun. We know they like to guess.

The 1st bit was to charlie

Hurrah, Matt wins

That leaves the only problem

How do I persuade Lou I was green on him all along? [;)]

Hi GB.
How was Jordan? All pink and a good ride?

I guess you're all in on the tosspot Matt now?

I moved some more green over late last night. It looks like he has it in the bag.

Re Rebecca on last....

In the final in seems 2nd last has been the most advantageous position

How exactly do you make that out GB?

Joe and Alex both sang last.
Rydian sang last, who Cowell clearly wanted to win and was probably closer to Leon than he would have been, as a result.

Leona last.

Shayne last


What am I missing?

Interesting GB - in other words to be the middle of the three acts in previous years?

Do you know who had that slot before?

Thought Alex was 2nd, but maybe you're right fig

Cowell just trying to make it appear a contest

Yeah Jordan was great, pink, but no riding. Ok a mule up to the petra monastry, fecking terrifying. But we wouldn't have made it in time for the sun if we hadn't. Then we had to shimmy along a 3 inch ledge in the dark to walk back. lol  Jesus christ.  The guide was just walking across it normally. He said 'don't use your hands'

I'd have sooner sold off all my Matt Green than not use my hands

Strictly no fvcking camels though

ok ok, let me off fig. Been sleeping in the desert for the last two weeks [;)]

lol n1.

Any thoughts on why his price hasn't moved, despite what we now know from what othh has posted and from what the YouGov poll is telling us.
It reminds me of the Tom Chambers SCD final where all rational opinion thought he was a cert and yet his price hardly moved. Infact he ddrifted in running.

I would say that's convincing!

Thanks FLL.

..and I'm just going by wiki, which does suggest last is the place tobe and 1st isn't

Just that SC seems intent on ramping Becca to the max I think fig....

perhaps he could make it closer than yougov, but not much I reckon

What did othh post btw?

The numbers on 1d are astonishing btw

If I wasn't already red, i'd be falling over myself to lay these prices

All sorts of tasty morsels.

Matt has won 7 out of the 9 votes including the last 5.

1D aren't doing much better than Lloyd and have never been top 2.


It's all in the rebecca will win thread

Cheers. Looks like a weekend of very few surprises to me, unless Matt is chronically bad (even worse than usual [;)]) and Bec is stupendously good

I suppose 1d could vanish first though...

forecasts matt reb 9/4 reb matt 5/1 dual 11/10

Looks a great price that first one alfie

1D off first at double figures ( well they were) has to be worth a nibble. Polls I follow don't suggest this but others do.

Distinct lack of enthusiasm for 1D (and robbie) at press conference and I suspect there isn't enough in it to justify such a big price difference.

jam stains have that dual f/c at 5/4 though if you shop around a bit you can get a touch bigger.

people started getting on properly around 10/3. welcome back GBrush

Cheers alfie. I would say it's good to be back, but all I can hear is whinging kids, behind me, and on the screen [;)]

and screeching kids on the tv later around 7pm

Additional bets this weekend:

Lay One Direction to win
One Direction - first elimination at 10s (I'm on at 12s)
Matt - Rebecca forecast at 9/4 (I'm already on at 3s, thanks to Squares)
Rebecca - Matt forecast at 11/2 (saver, price will not last)
Matt - Rebecca - Cher - One Direction at 16/1 (worth a tickle, if unlikely)

reb-matt sids still 11/2 cant get on cos of siavash an the koont never even won!!

Given all of the comments on here in the last week about Matt / Rebecca, the 11/10 top two combo with **** is more than fair too...

Full YouGov results.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-XFactorFinal-101210.pdf

There's a lot there. Plenty on who intends to vote and also questions on how under 16's may vote. They only favour 1D over Matt by 1%

Who votes. Women 33% may or will vote, 25% of men say the same.

Not a huge difference across the age range on intention to vote.

16-24 33%
25-39 26%
40-54 31%
over 55 - 29%

There's plenty more info for the number crunchers.

Sad pheckers aged 16-24 actually being in and watching telly.

Ok, so the figs include under 18's then?

Seemed some confusion about this.

How amusing that they like Matt as much as 1d

I was out last night and for a Friday just before Christmas it was like a ghost town.  Amazed at how pubs survive these days.  20m+ viewers looks a cert.

They've polled 16 year olds and upwards and asked about how any under 16 year olds in the house may vote. So not ideal, but interesting

where was that GeorgeB ?

Amityville

Likely vote transference (if such a beat exists) from 1D if eliminated  worrying for Rebecca. Hard to see how she can win now..but hope springs eternally etc.

1d vote transference impossible after bedtime, nap

"Matt's my biggest green"

The funniest stat out of all of them was who is the best dancer....

Matt 3%
Rebecca 2%

For all the fuss about Rebecca not moving doesnt look like people have noticed Matt moving much!

Matt himself said he doesn't like to move on stage but nobody slates him for it..him in his vest was just plain sad.

The winner will be judged on the finalperformance tonight.With Rebecca been ahead in the daily polls its only how far she wins.
Good luck whatever bet you have.

“I will wait and decide who to vote for on the night” 17%. The fact that that figure is not higher favours very well for Matt.

Missed opportunity for them to have asked the question “Could the performances on the night change your opinion?”

Looks like there are enough undecideds and probable swing voters to keep it all bubbling nicely.

This from Heat magazine site. Interesting (?) reference to info re Rebecca maybe leading the vote recently.

So, according to the tic-tac men, Cher Lloyd is the rank outsider. We’ll go with that. Her squashed-up elfin features just don’t sit well next to the mahoosive chip she has on her shoulder and, despite the fact that she can sing brilliantly, she’ll clearly launch into some more gangsta rap. The public don’t like her, and surely even at 28/1 the odds are being generous to her chances of pulling off a win. Unless the voting format changes at the last minute Mary Byrne-stylee, of course…



Which leaves us with Matt Cardle, Rebecca Ferguson and One Direction. Hmmm. Insider have supposedly been mouthing off that Matt has topped the votes each week. Really? Because we’ve heard other sources stating that it’s been Rebecca all the way the last few weeks. Double hmmm.



At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to who sings with the most popular celebrity. Robbie Williams with One Direction? Yay!  Matt Cardle with Rihanna? So-so. Rebecca Ferguson with Christina Aguilera? Amazeballs!



And there you have it. Our prediction is therefore as follows:



Winner of X Factor 2010: Rebecca Ferguson

Runners Up: One Direction

Third: Matt Cardle

A distant Fourth: Cher Lloyd

I'd sooner trust the source that's been reliable over the last 3-4 years gb2...

Yeah I know...like WC Fields reading the Bible on his death bed..I'm looking for loopholes

Don't forget that Heat magazine claimed that Cowell used knowledge of viewer votes to manipulate the programme  - and Cowell then went to the Press Complaints Commission to lodge a complaint.  I wouldn't have thought that XF would be giving Heat too much ligit info now.

Yeah, in an ideal world she would win.  A creditable, but relatively distant runner up I think

I think the few scattered weeks of dreariness and slow start has cost her; she hasn't built up enough momentum to overturn the sad hatter

It appears Matt has been pulling away lately, sore throat n all?