X Factor 2010
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10 Dec 10
03:41
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Date Joined:
26 Jul 03
1) Judging by polls, comments from Louis, Simon, Popbitch etc Cardle has clearly the biggest core support. It is the eve of the final and he has been topping the vote regularly we hear. Any challenger needs to change public opinion outside of their current fanbase markedly to win. The pressure is on the outsiders to win new support.
2) I just sat through the uncomfortable press conference which is viewable here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iv3CMWmiRA&feature=channel.
Clearly (to me) the elephant in the room is Cardle's massive support. Cowell is OK about 1D not winning and now has opted for Rebecca as his next best outcome (he knows the votes, look how he places a hand on her chair through most of the PC.- Either he's saying this truthfully or to keep the race tight or to stimulate votes or both). I would imagine he is reluctant to manage Cardle as he has "opinions". Cowell will be likely unable to praise Rebecca unduly as he has a remaining act. From his comments, Louis will clearly say at the weekend that he wants Rebecca to win. That all 4 winner's songs will be released just speaks to Cowell hedging as he thinks he can't fix this one against Matt. Matt can't whilly deprive any more favoured act of a number 1 record at Christmas.
3) Cheryl will not promote Cher or Rebecca over one another. It is clear that the Cher/Rebecca tension about "Cheryl time' still exists -see Cher's face when the question to Cheryl is "how do you split your time?"
4) Matt actually looked quite well, and spoke without croaking but Dannii and Matt maintain the stance that he's still sick (likely has viral tonsilitis) as potential cover. Matt says he will rest, he has a couple of days.
5) Duets? Clear lack of excitement in the room about Robbie and William. Can't see anyone slating Cardle/Rhianna. Rhianna is signed to def jam, part of Universal and a rival. Given poaching between record companies happens often (Mariah recently left sony for Universal) can see red carpet rolled out for the duet. Who knows what this will be like but there are lots of guitar acoustic male versions of tracks like Umbrella.
Rebecca/Aguilera. - bit of a weird combo. I can't find any duets with CA and a female artist. so presumably they will take turns to sing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USUDzycRvM which is sort of cool at the beginning but then gets a bit boring. Difficult to guess this without the arrangement. She has dueted with Ricky Martin but the performances are rather lame. They are on youtube. She will prob just take turns with Bex in this style see; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USUDzycRvM which starts well but is a bit boring after half way.
6) Audition songs. Not much new here. Assume Matt outpolled this lot the first time, we'll see. I heard One D's Torn in practice -usual fare singalonga Imbruglia. Rebecca could be great but we learn nothing new as she was great the first time except we'll see her eyes this time.. Same with Matt. Cher swags on...
My conclusion, I don't think there's enough to change the public's view that Cardle wins this. He's a musician so I'm guessing the Rhianna combo won't be awful and the winehouse is fine. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCbyQmopmYQ He's the only man left in a competition were the most common voting demographic is female and between 30 and 50.
If Cowell was Rebecca's mentor we might have a contest due to undue manipuation but for me, Matt should be much shorter and 1D should be in double digits and would already be but gamblers fear Cowell and can't quantify the teen "support" which i suspect is a lot of teen hype. Reb seems fairly priced here. Outside of under 18 females, One D appear just a little more popular as Cher, who must be the most disliked finalist ever?
The bawdeeps tell me that Matt should be trading between 1.3 and 1.6. Assuming they are talking book, 1.7 to be conservative seems like a likely next stop.
Good luck with your bets. I'm happy with a Matt Rebecca 1/2 and OK with a Reb/Matt. Betfreddie's offer seems most generous in this regard.
2) I just sat through the uncomfortable press conference which is viewable here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iv3CMWmiRA&feature=channel.
Clearly (to me) the elephant in the room is Cardle's massive support. Cowell is OK about 1D not winning and now has opted for Rebecca as his next best outcome (he knows the votes, look how he places a hand on her chair through most of the PC.- Either he's saying this truthfully or to keep the race tight or to stimulate votes or both). I would imagine he is reluctant to manage Cardle as he has "opinions". Cowell will be likely unable to praise Rebecca unduly as he has a remaining act. From his comments, Louis will clearly say at the weekend that he wants Rebecca to win. That all 4 winner's songs will be released just speaks to Cowell hedging as he thinks he can't fix this one against Matt. Matt can't whilly deprive any more favoured act of a number 1 record at Christmas.
3) Cheryl will not promote Cher or Rebecca over one another. It is clear that the Cher/Rebecca tension about "Cheryl time' still exists -see Cher's face when the question to Cheryl is "how do you split your time?"
4) Matt actually looked quite well, and spoke without croaking but Dannii and Matt maintain the stance that he's still sick (likely has viral tonsilitis) as potential cover. Matt says he will rest, he has a couple of days.
5) Duets? Clear lack of excitement in the room about Robbie and William. Can't see anyone slating Cardle/Rhianna. Rhianna is signed to def jam, part of Universal and a rival. Given poaching between record companies happens often (Mariah recently left sony for Universal) can see red carpet rolled out for the duet. Who knows what this will be like but there are lots of guitar acoustic male versions of tracks like Umbrella.
Rebecca/Aguilera. - bit of a weird combo. I can't find any duets with CA and a female artist. so presumably they will take turns to sing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USUDzycRvM which is sort of cool at the beginning but then gets a bit boring. Difficult to guess this without the arrangement. She has dueted with Ricky Martin but the performances are rather lame. They are on youtube. She will prob just take turns with Bex in this style see; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-USUDzycRvM which starts well but is a bit boring after half way.
6) Audition songs. Not much new here. Assume Matt outpolled this lot the first time, we'll see. I heard One D's Torn in practice -usual fare singalonga Imbruglia. Rebecca could be great but we learn nothing new as she was great the first time except we'll see her eyes this time.. Same with Matt. Cher swags on...
My conclusion, I don't think there's enough to change the public's view that Cardle wins this. He's a musician so I'm guessing the Rhianna combo won't be awful and the winehouse is fine. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCbyQmopmYQ He's the only man left in a competition were the most common voting demographic is female and between 30 and 50.
If Cowell was Rebecca's mentor we might have a contest due to undue manipuation but for me, Matt should be much shorter and 1D should be in double digits and would already be but gamblers fear Cowell and can't quantify the teen "support" which i suspect is a lot of teen hype. Reb seems fairly priced here. Outside of under 18 females, One D appear just a little more popular as Cher, who must be the most disliked finalist ever?
The bawdeeps tell me that Matt should be trading between 1.3 and 1.6. Assuming they are talking book, 1.7 to be conservative seems like a likely next stop.
Good luck with your bets. I'm happy with a Matt Rebecca 1/2 and OK with a Reb/Matt. Betfreddie's offer seems most generous in this regard.
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Good piece.
Nothing really to add to that other than SCowell had no problem heaping praise and pulling out all the stops for Alexandra when he still had Eoghan in the competition.
Re: the duets, haven't the time to look back at the moment but don't they usually take the form of the contestant singing the opening verse or two on their own, then they sort of stop and introduce the star guest and then they finish the song of together usually quite cheesy and not very structured?
Always tends to remind me of when that chap (Ian Moores?) who did Chris de Burgh on Stars in Their Eyes performed with him.
Nothing really to add to that other than SCowell had no problem heaping praise and pulling out all the stops for Alexandra when he still had Eoghan in the competition.
Re: the duets, haven't the time to look back at the moment but don't they usually take the form of the contestant singing the opening verse or two on their own, then they sort of stop and introduce the star guest and then they finish the song of together usually quite cheesy and not very structured?
Always tends to remind me of when that chap (Ian Moores?) who did Chris de Burgh on Stars in Their Eyes performed with him.
Nice to read such a thoughtful and well reasoned article.
Interesting points.
I think XF depends largely on the final performances when you have more than one great talent. Alexandra came from nowhere to win at the end.
I think XF depends largely on the final performances when you have more than one great talent. Alexandra came from nowhere to win at the end.
Excellent post charlie and I'd agree with nearly all of it.
apart from maybe this bit -
If Cowell was Rebecca's mentor we might have a contest due to undue manipuation
I think him not being her mentor makes his praise of her and any other help he gives her, more effective. As we saw when Alexandra won.
apart from maybe this bit -
If Cowell was Rebecca's mentor we might have a contest due to undue manipuation
I think him not being her mentor makes his praise of her and any other help he gives her, more effective. As we saw when Alexandra won.
I don't get the Alexandra comparison.
She didn't beat a sustained male jolly.She was the widely perceived odds on favourite to win the final.
She also got to duet with Beyonce in the final.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how good Matt's vocals can be.The starting lines to "Heroes" are just pitch perfect,although tbf Rebecca is equally as good
..definitely can see Cowell trying to get them to do a duet in the future.
A quality post,charlie.
She didn't beat a sustained male jolly.She was the widely perceived odds on favourite to win the final.
She also got to duet with Beyonce in the final.
I think a lot of people are underestimating how good Matt's vocals can be.The starting lines to "Heroes" are just pitch perfect,although tbf Rebecca is equally as good
..definitely can see Cowell trying to get them to do a duet in the future.
A quality post,charlie.
aa, I'm not comparing this year's acts to those of that year at all, and if I did I would have Alexandra/Matt, JLS/Rebecca and Eoghan/OD.
My point was that SCowell had no problem favouring Alexandra over his own act (who had in fact polled exceptionally well throughout most of the contest) once it got to the final.
My point was that SCowell had no problem favouring Alexandra over his own act (who had in fact polled exceptionally well throughout most of the contest) once it got to the final.
Charlie
Very well put forward piece. I wish I could write like that!
I don't think too much should be thought about the duets as it is just one song of three they perform (plus a christmas song if memory serves?) so they've still got two oppurtunity's to 'knock em' dead' with their own performances. I think at best it's a two horse race myself and you can pretty much forget One D and Cher as possible winners.
Very well put forward piece. I wish I could write like that!
I don't think too much should be thought about the duets as it is just one song of three they perform (plus a christmas song if memory serves?) so they've still got two oppurtunity's to 'knock em' dead' with their own performances. I think at best it's a two horse race myself and you can pretty much forget One D and Cher as possible winners.
agreed...surely simon's biggest ever ramp when he reminded viewers about alexandra after the add break,before eggnog sang again 
my reply was really meant for Henry.
my reply was really meant for Henry.
That was a classic aa.
the choice for Eoghan's "best song" was a good one too! A bit like having Matt coming out doing Come Together in that ruddy vest again.
the choice for Eoghan's "best song" was a good one too! A bit like having Matt coming out doing Come Together in that ruddy vest again.
A thoroughly excellent post big potatoes.
Just one thing occured to me - IF you are right and Cowell would rather 'ramp' Rebecca than Matt, but his hands are tied because he has to 'support' One Direction, then IF One Direction went before Cher (on Saturday night)then the problem would be solved ahead of 'Super Sunday'.
Just one thing occured to me - IF you are right and Cowell would rather 'ramp' Rebecca than Matt, but his hands are tied because he has to 'support' One Direction, then IF One Direction went before Cher (on Saturday night)then the problem would be solved ahead of 'Super Sunday'.
Not being the mentor hasn't stopped him ramping acts in the past, so it won't with Bex either.
stu
He could ramp Cher though couldn't he, could ramp Matt. Why single out Rebecca for possible ramping? Genuine question.
He could ramp Cher though couldn't he, could ramp Matt. Why single out Rebecca for possible ramping? Genuine question.
Because he's given enough clues this series that she's his winner, Lou.
stu
Ok I disagree about that but fair enough.
Ok I disagree about that but fair enough.
Excellent Post Charlie many good points, which you can agree on many points. Where I my views differ I see Cheryl promoting Rebecca as she has been throughout,the voting demographic of female voters between 30-50 I would feel Rebecca to get her fair share with being a mother with kids and a nice girl which they would relate, also I would think with the clout these people have throughout the music industry I would also believe Rebecca would do well from this area, which many have already expressed throughout this as Rebecca being something really special. Most of the previous acts which have left have all expressed their favour for Rebecca to win except Aiden I think. Think this is going to be very close, but Im still of the opinion Rebecca will take this.
stroodle
May i ask what do you think of onthehushhush's post that he hears Matt is getting almost double the votes of his nearest rival week after week. Is that a concern or do you put it to the back of your mind/don't believe it? Genuine question. Civil reply please.
May i ask what do you think of onthehushhush's post that he hears Matt is getting almost double the votes of his nearest rival week after week. Is that a concern or do you put it to the back of your mind/don't believe it? Genuine question. Civil reply please.
Lou this is the week where all the first time voters plough in, I think a lot will hinge on the performance at the weekend. Rebecca looking confident and a good duet in store, Matt good duet in store and hopefully his voice will be fine.
Great thread, nice work Charlie. As aa says SC's ramping of Alexandra was a different level, I had a big red on her and I knew I was in trouble the week before the semis when SC started clapping Alex after her opening line! He had a huge incentive that year to derail the awful Eoghan and he achieved it. This year his ramping is far more half hearted, its as if he's trying to transfer support from Matt to Rebecca to improve 1D's chances, but at the same it seems like he can't quite be bothered to do it properly.
What's interesting to me is that despite all the ramping, Beyonce etc., JLS weren't so far behind Alexandra 58.34% v 41.66%.
What's interesting to me is that despite all the ramping, Beyonce etc., JLS weren't so far behind Alexandra 58.34% v 41.66%.
I think JLS had a lot of momentum during that last week and were transforming a bit more towards the JLS we know now, rather than how they had been portrayed on the show.
Another week, and less of an Alexandra ramp from SCowell, and they might well have done it.
Another week, and less of an Alexandra ramp from SCowell, and they might well have done it.
stroodle
Fair enough thanks for a civil response. (Isn't it terrible that I have to thank people for being civil to me)
Fair enough thanks for a civil response. (Isn't it terrible that I have to thank people for being civil to me)
I have just heard on itv this morning that one act leaves Saturday night, then another leaves early on Sunday leaving 2 acts.
stroodle
I thought it would be that format myself.
I thought it would be that format myself.
I wonder how this may change the voting figures with transfer votes
Who knows?
If we surmise perhaps Cher might go first would some swing towards One D because they're the youth or perhaps Rebecca as she's the other girl. Don't see too many cher voters going to Matt.
Another thing to consider is that if someone's favourite were Cher and they've voted her all along, once she goes out don't most of her voters give up and leave it at that, why vote for somebody else at all?
If we surmise perhaps Cher might go first would some swing towards One D because they're the youth or perhaps Rebecca as she's the other girl. Don't see too many cher voters going to Matt.
Another thing to consider is that if someone's favourite were Cher and they've voted her all along, once she goes out don't most of her voters give up and leave it at that, why vote for somebody else at all?
Charlie your post is getting rave reviews on my Rebbecca the ramp thread. Well done.
Great post Charlie - some really interesting observations with regard to the press conference...
I agree with most of what you say, apart from the duets. I think that Rebecca singing 'Beautiful' with Christina could be a real stand out moment for her, and if Matt sings the acoustic version of 'Umbrella' with Rihanna a la Biffy Clyro - or a rock version, as per the Klaxons duet performed at the Brits a couple of years back - could be equally fantastic.
Regardless, it's hard to see past these two.
I agree with most of what you say, apart from the duets. I think that Rebecca singing 'Beautiful' with Christina could be a real stand out moment for her, and if Matt sings the acoustic version of 'Umbrella' with Rihanna a la Biffy Clyro - or a rock version, as per the Klaxons duet performed at the Brits a couple of years back - could be equally fantastic.
Regardless, it's hard to see past these two.
I am surprised at the lack of typos in a 4am post after a lot of booze. Clearly I meant "wholly" not "whilly". ITV This Morning poll while I was sleeping off my hangover Matt - 47% Rebecca - 32% 1D - 14% Cher - 7%.
Caveats for me here would be 1) lack of school kid 1D voters 2)I didn't watch the show and I didn't see the question wording or the bias of the interviews etc in the show. Anyone see it for clarity?
Caveats for me here would be 1) lack of school kid 1D voters 2)I didn't watch the show and I didn't see the question wording or the bias of the interviews etc in the show. Anyone see it for clarity?
I think Squares said it was phrased as 'who do you want to win' rather than 'who do you think will win', so sound enough - with the obvious caveat of no young voters represented.
For the record. This was my honest appraisal. Some of the pros I know of would have kept their views to themselves but I know how hard it is to make money on here and Christmas is coming. Hope people did not over-extend and well done to the others.
I don't think Matt was a "rightful" winner. I think Rebecca could have won but was managed very badly. One D should have been thrown under the bus some time ago but we know why.
I'm sorry for Paije, Aiden and some others but at least we don't have Cowell's choice this year.
Thanks for the nice comments to my thread. Cheers forum.
Kudos to Matt for singing his heart out (whilst shagging a few chicks) his untrained way with a damaged voice. My favourite song of the serious is probably Reb's show me love.
I don't think Matt was a "rightful" winner. I think Rebecca could have won but was managed very badly. One D should have been thrown under the bus some time ago but we know why.
I'm sorry for Paije, Aiden and some others but at least we don't have Cowell's choice this year.
Thanks for the nice comments to my thread. Cheers forum.
Kudos to Matt for singing his heart out (whilst shagging a few chicks) his untrained way with a damaged voice. My favourite song of the serious is probably Reb's show me love.
the definitive matt will win post of the series.
wd charlie
wd charlie
charlie, ive never read a post like it in all my years!!
now i dont mind a bit of x factor, but ur an absolute addict son!!!!!!
you called it all spot on so i tip my hat, well done.
do u bet on sports? if so, if u put as much time and effort into those, ill be interested in any of your fancies ??
now i dont mind a bit of x factor, but ur an absolute addict son!!!!!!
you called it all spot on so i tip my hat, well done.
do u bet on sports? if so, if u put as much time and effort into those, ill be interested in any of your fancies ??
Charlie
You're the man!
Well done and a merry christmas
Lou x
You're the man!
Well done and a merry christmas
Lou x
thanks chaps. I'm exhausted. Glad its all over. Tough one this year as lots of moving parts. No shame in getting it wrong. Over and out.
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