Mary to finalise now?

Hope so George.  The missus is on and it would mean there's a chance One D or rebecca could go which suits me.  Cher the obvious one though.

Cher will be ditched certainly.

Cowell will want to ramp the other two, and she's just had a pimp slot

Suits me if she goes George.  One D better still!

More a ski-slope than a ramp I'm afraid Lou

They won't win

Hope not.

Mary and Rebecca are both nightmare winners for Cowell

He'll be happy with any of the other finalists (to varying degrees)

Capture the middle ground is the only way to win this. Only one capable of snatching it off Matt and she'd have to be totally astonishing in the final

What a load of tosh about Rebecca JM

Mary to finalise now?

Of course

It isn't over 'til the fat lady sings

Yeah GB - I'm with you on Cher exit stage left next.
After her B2 last weekend, somebody must have given her a bit of "get your cred back - you're street, gurrrrl!"
Then true to form, she came out as the hateful little scroat that she is!
She brought arrogance to a new level!

Will the judges save her over Mary? - probably!

Mary should get a big bounce after this week. All the papers ere are 100% behind her. Just a matter of how bothered people are to vote and how big she bounces!?!
At this stage of the competition a bounce is obviously not as significant as the earlier rounds.
With the level of Irish media support she has and the fact she's clearly in trouble, she may just cause an upset!

This goes out the window if it's a double eviction this week, with an auto 1 down and other two sing off for a 3 act final. Then Mary's a gonner for sure.
Can't see who the judges will let go apart from Mary and/or Cher.

Mary or Rebecca would give him a winner too similar to winners of the past, minus the star quality.

Of the two Rebecca is obviously a far better singer and I've never denied that.

one would hope that there will be one week before the final weekend where it is PV only.  Usually there are 3 or 4.  This year's changes seem to have given the judges a lot more power until a lot later.

Mary or Rebecca would give him a winner too similar to winners of the past

neither mary nor rebecca are similar to any winners of the past.

one would hope that there will be one week before the final weekend where it is PV only.  Usually there are 3 or 4.  This year's changes seem to have given the judges a lot more power until a lot later.

It seems a bit like they are deciding the rules as they go along. There has to be a suspicion that O dreary wasn't given the nod to announce a double elimination until they had an idea of how the voting was going for both wagner and Cher.

By the same token is there not the possibility they will adapt the decision whether to go PV only this week based on initial voting?

Bl@@dy poor if they do.

Surely having judges voting and sing offs at this stage of the contest, with 5 contestants remaining, in the week before the final would give too much info regards the voting away.

Sq - to be clear, can you let us know exactly how many shows are left plz?
It's a bit unnerving the level of judges' input to the final hurdle as you indicate...

NXRBL can you clarify how the vote works in Ireland? I'd read that you have to log onto the net to get the number to ring and Irish TV say they can't put numbers on screen in case they change the running order of acts. I'd have thought the media would have it splashed all over?

Also I still can't get advanced twitter to work here. If any kind soul with time on their hands can go to advanced search and type in "mary", location "dublin", "50" miles and lets me know what response they get ie either "no results or a page of tweets I'd be grateful.

Thanks.

I've put a few things on the "Next Weekend" thread.  Not sure how accurate they are.

As far as I am aware.

Show this Saturday.  Results show this Sunday.

Following Saturday and Sunday final two shows.  Last year had 3 on Saturday down to 2 on Sunday.  Could be different this year.

if you want to vote from ireland, you go on the TV3 website to find out the numbers, then ring them up.  pain in the hole, but if you really want to vote, it's not THAT hard.

mary was on the front page of at least two of the tabloids today - i think the star and the sun.  one of them (i think the star) referred to her as "our mary" i think.

that said, one direction are getting a bit of support in mullingar apparently (where niall's from).

Previous years there have been 2 weeks (twice) and 3 weeks (4 times) before the final weekend where bottom of the PV went immediately - no sing offs, judges, B2, etc.  Early series had fewer contestants/categories.

So much for cowell's tosh about putting vote back int he hands of the public then.

Re Ireland I still think for the typical Mary voter that may be a technilogical leap too far for many of them. Or that may be a stereotype of middle aged and the net.

Before I "lost" advanced twitter search I got the feeling that the Mary love was going in Ireland.  I think vast majority will vote for their favourite act and maybe the Irish vote is too small to make a difference anyway?

George

possibly yes maybe the Irish vote is too small to make a difference at this stage..  My wife's of Irish stock and she says everyone out there will be having 'Mary' parties and all her friends and relatives over there are all Mary mad.  That said how come then she's 2nd or 3rd bottom of the vote this week?  I wouldn't mind but she is a good singer too.

So much for cowell's tosh about putting vote back in the hands of the public then.

Yeah that was just the most jawdropping comment.
It will be very interesting to see how soon we find out the exact format of the semifinal.
I'm expecting one last p1sstaking piece of sleight-of-hand from the man though.

In the end his game playing will cost him as people will eventually suss they are being disenfranchised. I don't want the Alternative Vote in any election thank you very much [>o]

I think she's got a button on her till that does it for her GB.

Seriously though, have to laugh about the comments done in deadly seriousness about her being 'back on her till' - as feckin if! Even a couple of nights at Butlins next year pays better than that.

stu

Yes doubt she'll be 'back on the till'and they say they can earn about £100,000 from the X Factor tour.  Eventually though the clubs beckon I think.  She'll start off charging but end up on about £400 a night which still aint bad.  Look at past X Factor acts.  What are Leon, Eoghan, Same Difference up to now.

GB - NXRBL can you clarify how the vote works in Ireland?

GB - Below is from the TV3 X Factor page, mate

X Factor Voting lines are currently closed.

Voting lines open during the live show on Saturday and remain open until during the results show on Sunday.

Voting numbers will appear at tv3.ie/xfactorvote when voting lines are open.

Note that the phone numbers for each contestant change each week.

Refreshing this page will NOT show the numbers when they go live. Please visit tv3.ie/xfactorvote to check again.

More detailed help is available from our X Factor Voting Help page.

So basically you have to log on to the TV3 website to find out the numbers to vote for each contestant once the lines are open. Like you say, this may be above the reach of a lot of her voting demographic.

All Rebecca has to do is move or dance around the stage and she has won is.Matt has something missing.
All he can do is the oasis trick like the knights in white satin mooody blues song
because I love you ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh love you aohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhahhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
love love uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.Its so easy to sing and Matt is a poor performer like his failed album he released to poor sales.
Rebecca is far the best and will be a dream for the show.

pmbets

That song is not easy to sing in the key he sang it in and sitting down believe me.

would take a Barnes Wallace invention for mary to reach the final imo

Eoghan and Same Difference are touring all the time - Butlins/Pontins type places.

Don't know if they'll be able to do next year's bookings with Pontins in administration.

Maybe they are the reason Pontins went into administration

How very dare you

I reckon she's got a very decent chance of a bounce and a 4 person final would suit her better.

I think despite her B3 appearance (which let's face it reflected nearly half the field) she has an OK base of support, plus she will appeal to quite a few first time viewers / voters of which there are a lot in the final - witness her popularity in the early weeks.

Needs to up her game as regards the singing, but not impossible and 80/1 seems somewhat derisory.

Question I'm interested in is what her price gets to if she is Top 3?

Sing off performance was ideal - straight down the line, no horrible makeup and tortured hair

Just a singing Tesco woman that you could see resonating with the older audience again

Asparagus

Depends who the other two were.  If Matt were out for instance a massive drop in her odds.

i think the idea is for each judge to have an act in the final, but whether mary can get there ahead of cher is debatable. i thought it was lowest polling from now on, so yeah depends on mary bounce. in her favour is the fact she is very round and may well bounce quite high

When was it said the idea is to have an act each in the final?
wasn't aware of this.

Journey

It's just an obvious thing we're all surmising.  If there are 4 acts in the final (who knows it could still be 3 as usual) then one per judge would make it more interesting.  On that basis Cheryl having 2 would mean Rebecca or Cher to go this week leaving the judges with one each.

final 3 = rebecca matt and cher

no journeyman, not what is 'surmised' but what the production company is expecting, though mr cowell himself hasn't 100 per cent confirmed. 99 per cent likely....

being part of production backstage is exciting;im a lucky person

I think it would be a mistake to think Louis is too bothered about whether he has an act in the final 4.
put on the spot about whether Mary can win he has generally avoided answering, most pointedly on the xtrafactor. He knows exactly what she is and by taking Wagner and Mary as far as he has, he's fulfilled any real remit placed on him as a mentor of a shambolic talentless bunch of over 28s.

Having said that I suspect Mary will reach the last 4 anyway for reasons that have little to do with her supporters, Louis or the production team.

Journey

I'd say that was about right.  Had the over 28's which was never the best category to get and took even the awful Wagner to the last 6.  Mary may go that bit further perhaps but realistically won't win it so I think he's just being honest by trying to avoid the question.  He can't really think she'll win i don't think.

Someone laying decent chunks at 100 now

I've backed a bit - crazy levels 10 days out from the final in a competition like this.

Aaparagus

Yes surely she's not a 100-1 shot.

no she is more like a 1000/1 shot

Cher looks a cracking bet at 15/8 next elimination to me.

Bottom two week before last so likely to be down near bottom following bounce.
Mary in sing off last week so should bounce and have more votes this week.
Neither of other 3 acts been in sing off yet.
Down to last 5 so it goes entirely on public vote, no sing off.
Her going next leaves the ideal final, one from each mentor all varying styles.

To me Cher should be the clear favourite for this market and 15/8 is huge

Yes see your logic there.

To add to the fact that I think Cher goes this week, Mary's win price is ridiculous - even though I was definitely a layer earlier on when she was some silly short prices. But prices like 90.0 95.0 or 100 are very silly considering she is quite possibly going to be in the final.

stu

My wife's on at about 25/1 and I only wish she could get her money back but even if she gets through and say Cher went out she becomes what 50/1?

Is it 100% confirmed that it's just a straight public vote this week.

Think she could trade in the 30's if she gets to the final Lou.

Final 4 I don't think she'll hit the 30's stu unless Matt went out this week.

In the final, a top performance and I could easily see her trading in running in the 30's

I agree that is probably their ideal scenario - but not necessarily that important to them.  At least, not as important as them getting Rebecca and One Direction through to the final.

I think it'll definitely be between Mary and Cher in the sing off, even if Mary does get a bit of a bounce (which in itself is debatable).  But I can't see them saving Mary over Cher...

Dizzt

i don't think there's any singoff therefore it's purely down to lowest vote goes out.

FWIW I am backing Mary in the outright rather than laying her in the Elimination.

Depends what happens in the show but twenties definitely possible, thirties likely, plus a big added bonus if it's one of Matt/OD/Rebecca goes.

Is that right?  Is that how it normally works in the semi?  Honestly can't remember...

If no sing-off then Mary could well be safe, yes...

Dizzy

We're all pretty sure it's a straight vote count, one goes leaving four in the final next week.

Sorry, I'm a bit behind...

Been in hospital for an op on my shoulder this week so just catching up on everything here!

Confirmed as PV only (in as much as anything can be 'confirmed' on XF)

Other advantage of backing Mary in the O/R is some very big green numbers on your screen

Dizzy

Good to have you back and don't worry I've still been 'shouldering' all the flak this week!

I think its just lowest votes goes this week, sure at has been previous years.

Even if does go sing off Mary and Cher, Danni is a big fan of Mary and I think her and Louis split Simon and Cheryl's vote and it goes to deadlock anyway.

twenties or thirties aint happening unless one of matt/od/rebecca
DOES go

AM - you can still have all you can eat on Mary in any Irish Laddies (up to €100) in the o/r with a refunded bet if she doesn't win!