X Factor 2010
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Yougov poll splashed all over The Sun
Yougov poll splashed all over The Sun
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Replies: 71
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shrewdbury Joined: 25 Sep 09
Replies: 4327 27 Nov 10 10:51 squares Date Joined: 26 Feb 01 Add contact | Send message When: 27 Nov 10 10:43 Thought Lou didn't believe what the papers print only if it backs up his opinions then hmmmmmm..... Someone tell Squares i don't belive in all these 'leeks'. Matt this, Rebecca that etc. But a poll, although it not conclusive evidence can't be a bad thing to see my man well clear. Slight difference between the two even Squares will grudgingly admit I hope. |
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PP already paying out on matt lou. You on there?
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I guess we can totally discount this poll considering Cher was bottom of the vote last week and had to be saved by the judges avoiding deadlock.
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George
No just on here and laid all the others. PP already paying out? |
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True the Sun has a big circulation. I still believe the overwhelming majaority of viewers vote on what they see on the saturday night and have little or no regard for what they read in the papers.
Whether it be this or negative/positive stories about the acts. |
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I guess we can totally discount this poll considering Cher was bottom of the vote last week and had to be saved by the judges avoiding deadlock.
Bounce factor. All the poll says is Matt doing excellently, Rebecca doing very well, other 5 rubbish. It's less easy to make distinctions between the bottom 5. |
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Henry
matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks. Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it. |
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This is a measurement of core support Tutunka.
It shows that given running order, performance and judges comments any of the bottom 5 could be in the danger zone. Rebecca and especially Matt have enough support to survive come what may. |
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No Lou just a poor early/late April Fool joke. Sorry. That said I have seen them pay out dafter things than that.
Re the yougov poll thinking about it tthis should be accurate given their methodology and demographic ie it doesn't just pick up the twitterati vote which has made aiden and cher look safe when they haven't been. I thought I has saved a link to the first yougov poll but can't find it. If anyone has a link can they post it? |
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Henry
matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks. Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it. Maybe you should take this opportunity to back Rebecca. (May only be available this morning and afternoon, but who can predict this mug market). |
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fwiw I joined unibet to back Bex vs 1d @2.15. They took my first £20 and the rest has been sent for approval
 . Decent price tho. |
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That looks a decent bet cider.
GB2. http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-XFactor-221010.pdf |
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Waggy gone for a walk in the market. Support for Matt
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Yes thanks fll found it. Search yougov site for other polls. Actually seems to confirm the who do you think will win as a bit of a nonsense as they have cher and aiden up there. Matt "want to win" always in lead.
Best you can say is that it is a snapshot at a point in time. As has been pointed out the polls before the performance are pretty meaningless and are really only a tool to help measure reaction to the actual performance |
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Not surprising. Both looked value lay / back bets respectively.
Surely laying Waggy at 8s / 9s is the bet of the century? I've had to top up my bet on Matt at 2s as well this week. His popularity shows no sign of abating just yet - and he could have a decent week with at least one of his two songs... |
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Sell @9 even better Dizz.
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Got to think there's some value in 1d not to make the final 3 @4-1.
You'd probably favour them edging through with Cowell's help, but not at 80%. |
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Henry
matt seems to be well clear in just about every poll we've seen for the last 6 or 7 weeks. Can't be a bad thing but wouldn't be too confident with it. Maybe you should take this opportunity to back Rebecca. (May only be available this morning and afternoon, but who can predict this mug market). I've tried to back her sice she drifted last week at 9/2 on here but she hasn't quite reached it and now going in so looks like I won't be on. I've tried to put almost £400 on her to make her a 'taker' only. Only other realistic winner apart from her and Matt is One D but I just don't think they're much cop at all so won't be backing them back. Specially at about LF. |
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Dizzy
Yes I've been saying since last week that 2/1 is a decent bet on Matt. We all pretty much think it's realistically out of the top 3 making him a 2/1 shot in theory but I do believe he's the pick of the bunch so 2/1 a good price for backers I think. |
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George Bailey Joined: 04 Apr 10
Replies: 1955 27 Nov 10 10:25 27%/16% for Rebecca for example rings true ie "I like Rebecca but don't think she will win". Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy Or it can work the other way GB2, where her supporters are more likely to vote as they they think she needs the support. Voter apathy can be a killer, just ask Javine Hilton! [;)] |
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Javine Hilton HF? Slipped under my radar.
I think the psychology of voting can be over analysed. I don't think voters think too much about it though if their favourite is in trouble one week it obviously sometimes motivates them the next ie the bounce. Other than that the usual stuff: 1. I vote for who i think is the best on the night 2. I vote for my favourite regardless of performance 3. I vote for the worst to p*ss the establishment off For 99% the Sun poll won't impact at all on their voting pattern or whether they vote at all. |
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George
Yes I can see that. I wonder how many change their vote according to each week's performance? Cher perhaps being the best with 'Stay' one week, Matt with 'First Time Ever' and Mary last week with 'Something' I wonder how many vote on it like that compared with say 'Matt's my favourite and I'm gonna vote him no matter what'? |
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voter apathy is an extremely important factor imho. In most of reality shows its why the middle ability singers/dancers or middling popularity celebs always seem to get weeded out first.
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george, would you not say 2 is more pervasive than 1 in your top3 when it comes to voting?
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As always - great info and analysis! TY one and all.
Good work, fellas! |
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Lou I think the floating voters are a large minority of the vote and also I think people can switch allegiance from favourites quickly. Beccy lost a lot of hardcore fans with her Yesterday performance I think.
CJ, absolutely. You have to have a motivation to vote in any "election". One "test" I have is imagining with each act/celebrity (gmooh) is whether someone would be ars*d to go to the time and expense of registering a vote. Clearly with the Sheryl's, Felicity's etc there comes a point when they can't be. Nick, definitely yes. That is why Wagner or any marmite act that is hated more than loved can't win a reality contest once it effectively becomes a vote to evict. With wagner probably 70/30 against him at best (for him). Those 70% will vote for almost anyone in the final on a double header vote. |
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As always - great info and analysis! TY one and all.
Good work, fellas! Only too pleased .................. |
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five leaves left Joined: 24 Dec 05
Replies: 14774 27 Nov 10 10:32 1D are probably one of the silliest prices in specials since the tarts with violins.  ah, one of my finest lays (financially, of course) |
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Can any of the 11/4 one D backers tell us what exactly is in their favour
apart from having Cowell as their mentor please? cause it sure as heck isn't in any opinion poll. |
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i fancied them initially, but they havent gelled at all obviously and cowell has needed the backing singers to make ek sound ok. think he has been most disappointed with their lack of progress. now it's just the cowell ramping and the fact he'll put them with take that in the final that keeps them low
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good point nick.
i don't think they're terrible...they just do what they do. |
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Should have stuck to my own original advice, what a time to back Bex ffs !
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