CALLING GEORGE BAILEY

wagner safe again this week;paige or mary to go

katie & paige in bottom two for me

how u know hes safe? i was going to put 4 figure some down

dont he will be safe for this week

but how u so sure ? do u have inside info? so a big lay then?

All that is sure is that he is getting more votes than Katie, no obvious reason why that shouldn't be the case Sunday.

Just going by the polls sdhen tho I'm flattered that you think I have some inside information .

He's always punched above the bald figutes of the polls so clearly has a non twitterati vote.

Polls so far says Katie is toast but given 2 to go (I think) then other two could be any of wagner, paije, mary or even cher.

Big question is who has the biggest non twitterati vote between wagner, paije and mary and how much is cher dependent upon the twitterati vote? Aiden was totally dependent upon it and it wasn't enough.

More number crunching saturdy/sunday but for now Katie looks very good bet at evens given her inability to dobetter than the polls figures.

Glad to hear you're onside with that bet GB - I'm also going in on a Katie next out bet. Did last week but thankfully also backed Aiden (phew), but this week I see even less bounce for her.

Personally, I prefer backing her on the spreads - if you assume she's bottom 2 then it equates to better than the evens you get on here - only danger is if she avoids bottom and is saved, but that's a pretty big ask at this stage of the series.

thanks george followed advice other week won 1600 and been playing exchange games for 2 ans a half months and win everyday with system played . but like an idiot i lost 9grand on stupid bets on friendly football . so thinking putting a big bet to get money back on x factor . the odds look good for wagner but he would need to get in bottom 2 to go . but never know hom many backing him with all the facebook campaign . i look to see what numbers u crunch up tomorrow he he

so thinking putting a big bet to get money back

faulty thinking

All that is sure is that he is getting more votes than Katie, no obvious reason why that shouldn't be the case Sunday.

One reason now is the disability benefit cheating.

? Henry

Shrewdbury basically all I was saying was jut minor points - Wagner has been getting more votes than Katie because she's allways B2 and he never is, normally I would expect that to continue until something changes with one of them.

Something (small) has now changed in that he's a benefit cheat.

Whats the source for that - hadn't heard it, did I miss the news?

stu

All over the press especially The Sun a couple of days ago.

surely nobody believes what the sun says lol

does anyone not give advice on here who works in the voting?

That explains why I missed it - always have a midweek lull when I don't follow the news etc....things other than x-factor take over my life, darn it!

Having read the story in the Sun I'd say 'benefits cheat' is a little OTT Henry - it even mentions that the benefits agencies are quite happy with his situation in the story, not exactly a cheat.

stu

Yes a completely exaggerated story.  There was one about Matt too once from memory.  I think it waS a big front page 'shocker' that he went out without tying his shoelaces or something.  Of course all the Matt haters pouced on it.  Well you would wouldn't you! (wink)

It may not affect his XF but "benefits cheat" is correct. He told them he was going on XF but didn't tell them that his shoulder was no longer disabled and was fraudulently claiming £90 a week disability benefit.

Disability benefit is for those who can't work, he's working a lot harder and more energetically than most.

benefits agencies are quite happy because they don't want any more negative publicity. I doubt they're "happy" enough to continue paying him.

fancy being on national tv and doing energetic performances when your claiming disability benefits

But it says he informed them about the show - surely he stopped getting it then?

exactly shrew,was keeping the job centre informed.

Though I'd have to admit, it's not exactly a positive for him generally.

hardly

But it says he informed them about the show - surely he stopped getting it then?

This conversation is tedious, but the whole point is that he didn't tell them about his shoulder. He just told them about XF. But not every benefits clerk is supposed to know all about Wagner. It's his legal responsibility to tell them everything.

Got it yet shrew?

The £91/week was on top of all his other benefits. Why don't you continue paying it to him?

Like I said above its a negative for him obviously.

However, I'd guess the 'benefits cheat' bit is rather an overstatement - seems like his previous line of income was to do with martial arts and he had two operations (not exactly 'made up' lies), and whether his arm is currently well enough for many types of work (physical) I wouldn't know, but probably not for his previous line. Dancing around the stage is one thing, but he wouldn't necessarily be capable of heavy labour (for example).

If it's a double eviciton, and bottom of public vote goes, then vote to save from last two then isn't Katie in a relatively strong position?

She beat Aiden in the public vote, so as long as she's not bottom, and it seems there might be enough of a core support to scrape above that, then she could be up against Wagner. The big yin's out in that scenario surely?

seebee - but EVERYONE else in the competition got more votes than her last week.  she might not have gone, but she did come 2nd last.

in fact, we know as categorical fact, that katie has had less votes in every single one of the last 3 weeks, than every other remaining contestant.

Yes, but Aiden dropping into bottom two was surely a bit of a surprise, and all it takes is a storming performance from Katie and a weak one by someone else, and she's not bottom. Realise this is unlikely, but it's not improbable.

you mean impossible?

you could say that about any of them though.  she clearly has less core support than any of the remaining contestants, so she'd need a very good performance and one of the others to put in a bad performance, coupled with a cowell stitch up (most certainly NOT impossible!!).

Its not impossible if Cowell was still bothered about her - personally I'd guess she's served her purpose in this series and it's time to move on with only a few weeks left to go.

Oops, yes of course meant impossible, rather than improbable.

Sdhen I'm glad to see you won £1600 based on my stats...that's about 1550 more than I did

I just play/bet for fun really. I'll post what I can and when I can but don't really have confidence in returns till sunday tea time. As with my comments on my poll thread this is the stage where unknown variables kick in so we may have had the lower hanging fruit already this year.

What I'm thinking of doing is posting the bare stats and then estimating the actual vote by suggesting what the non twitterati vote might be.

I'd then like other forumites to weigh in with their guesstimates to see if between us we can work this out together.

Does that make sense?

Also if you end up losing your house based on my stats I have so little money it wouldn't be worth suing me

Oops ttt is also me No others honest.

Sod it logged out and in and its still saying ttt. GB really.

Hello Lou

A1 you're blocked.

Lots of love

Lou

xxx