Am I missing something here?

You have got your bet right.

I've actually backed him to go tonight. So one of us has each others money. [;)]

Well I may well be wrong before everyone shouts me down but 6/4 he's got the least votes in a 14 runner (and whatever way you look at it surely a 6 runner) race?

That's a terriffic bet and I'll gladly take it on the chin if he goes out first.  Keep saying it but I actually think he's quite good!

However, by laying Storm, by proxy you are backing all the others to be eliminated, including the ones that are safe.

Billy

Fair enough.  May the best man win.

Cider

We know a few of them are safe but there's surely half a dozen worried.  6/4????

Yep, a few worried but do you need the field running for you ?

Its between the following

Diva
Belle
Paije
Storm
Treyc
John.

The rest are safe.

I'd have Goldie's about right so that's 5/1 isn't it?  Possibly Wagner and Katie too?

I don't think John, Treyc, Wagner or Bellamy will be bottom.
It's an opinion call of course, but my runners would be:

KW, DF, Paije and Storm.

6/4  for storm to be 3rd eliminated is a horrible price

some scots have been voting or him

Cider

With all due respect that is just your opinion though but even then it's a 3/1 shot!  I can't believe the odds.  Just because he sang first .... and not bad at that?  Surely not.

KW & Wagner safe for following reasons

Wagner has the "too bad its good" vote (See jedward/Chico)

KW different katie from the one that was saw last week on the saturday, no gimmicks, just pure voice. Also previous xfactors show the act surviving bottom 2 the previous week avoided being bottom two the following (in the early shows). Now we are asking her to not only beat that trend, but to finish bottom.

He's 2.4 now????

It's my opinion, yes, but it's fact that you are backing all the others runners by laying someone. It's not an efficient way to be in the long run imho.

Cider

We perhaps disagree then here which is fine. He's very short to go so obviously people tend to not like him.  I'd have half a dozen worse than him left in it and like last week thought he did ok last night.  All will be revealed.

Hope it's a winner Lou. On Page and Bellamy

Cider is right though. By laying Storm you are wasting money on the no hopers with lots of obvious votes at the moment, Mary, Cardie, Aiden, 1D, Cher

George Brush has the 2 that are in trouble imo

think its a very very low price and a definite lay price, though he is a distinct candidate imo, together with paige and diva fever

Yeah, I'm worried about the strictly clash myself tbh

he's 11/8  in a 5 way bunch finish for 3rd eliminated

with only one to go

lol

True GT, but there are reasons for the price

backing Storm for 4th elim is probably a better bet than the lay as it goes. Tough to see him avoiding b3 altogether.

agree with cider

Drifted back out. belle amie price has crashed slightly.

Insiders taking hold?

Major Belle Amie price crash

i can not see how diva fever will stay in tonight, backing them to go 3rd or 4th good prices

Big booom![:)] easy money.

**** from start to finish


finalists already chosen

it's easy to mock someone after the event.  say what you like about lou, but he had his opinion and gave it here.

a losing bet is not necessarily a bad bet.

Unlucky Lou, I was on storm to go but laying was the correct call @2.5

lou and a1 correct here imo....

Bad luck Lou. My arse went and I only lost £6 in the end

I would never mock lou. hard lines on a decent bet. im just happy mine came in.

wd billy

Honest to the end I lost £83.  Would still lay it again though if similar scenario.  People have backed a winner with me and beat me fair and square but 6/4?  Don't think I'll go too far wrong laying them but point taken.

The strictly thing did it.

I missed Storm myself

...and the fact he looked like a pink haired slightly aging weirdo who couldn't sing songs that were dated 15 years ago...praps?

stu

i thought he sang them ok and had two decent weeks hut heh ho.

Was being a bit cheeky Lou, and at the price you layed at I think you could well have been right - but he is/was a weirdo (IMO)

stu

Yer I'd do the same again.  It is a bit of a lottery trying to pick the bottom act with about half a dozen or so possibles I thought it a very good bet to lay 6/4.  Came unstuck though ................ but 'I'LL BE BACK'!!

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B Joined: 06 Aug 02
Replies: 1510 17 Oct 10 21:48   
Honest to the end I lost £83.

Sorry Lou but you are either lying here or have lied previously.

You consistently talk of laying stuff for 4 figure amounts, you obviously felt strongly about this one but only lost £83???

Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Storm Lee * 2.55 53.50 Lay   -83.11
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: -83.11
Market subtotal: -83.11
Commission : 0.00
Net Market Total: -83.11

Don't EVER call me a liar again.  It was a novelty bet for me.  I only ever play on the outright winner market.  Let's see if you're man enough to apologise .................
 

 
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. 
All times are UKT 
? 
  unless otherwise stated.

Show us the 4 figure lays on the outright then Lou.

Here's one for instance.  I won't show you anymore.  If you don't believe me ................

Let's see if you apologise now?



UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay   03-Oct-10
22:16    5 350.00  5 04-Oct-10 18:53   

UK / The X Factor 2010 / Winner  Rebecca Ferguson Lay   03-Oct-10
22:05    4 16.00  4 03-Oct-10 22:06

Well I still don't believe you Lou as it is very easy to doctor these but....

Seeing as I have no evidence other than my own logical thought and my instinct.....

I will apologise for publicly calling you a liar.

Fair enough that's decent of you.  I honestly am not lying about anything I say on here.  I try to be fair and honest.  I pick out one bet each year right at the start to back.  I've been very successful every year (this is my fifth).  This year however I think it's harder so I decided to lay a few who I don't think will win.  I've laid all four of Cheryl's girls to lose the same amount as I don't personally think they're good enough.  I could very well be wrong though of course.

What with my main bet on Matt, I've also had a good bet on Aiden and smaller amounts on Nicolo and Storm. (Storm was at 83!).  As it stands right now if one of Cheryl's girls win I lose about £1900.  That's the simple truth.

Thanks for apologising.

No worries Lou

Thanks.  No hard feelings (as the man ordering his Viagra said to the Doctor)

Lou, to my mind, is one of the most honest, open, and therefore good contributors on this forum HF. Always has an opinion, got a sick (as in good) record of calling the winner, and will always put his money where his mouth is.

Wish everyone, including myself, was more like him on here.

Well I dont think I can be accused of being anything other than straight forward! [;)]

Also very true!

Angela

Thanks for that.  I'm not exactly flavour of the month on here for some reason.  Perhaps because I won't just go along with all the sheep so it's nice to have one person onside ................ only another 100 to go!

I take it you're of the female variety so a kiss from me.  If you're a man ................... sod it a kiss from me anyway!  Well it's the nineties you know after all. (wink)

I'm not a lass! Just picked this name for a laugh, when I was at Uni we all thought it'd be funny to have pictures of Angela Rebecchi (neighbours character) in all our rooms, to freak people out when they came over. Funny at the time but can't help looking back and thinking we were all a bunch of c****! Cheers for the kiss though

Angela

Watch it they'll be talking about us.  I mean they talk badly about me all the time but I'm a man!  I keep telling myself I'm a man, I'm a man.

Seriously.  Thanks

Lou, I do respect your posts, but I feel you should know why you got a bit of a reputation on here - you did start sulking rather a lot in the past and refusing to reply to many people who argued with you on here. Secondly, you stick stubbornly to the argument about it always being about talent/performance - you yourself have seen plenty examples where this clearly isn't the case (e.g. wagner just this week!) to have surely disproven that stance, or are you now coming round on that one?

stu

To answer that.  I don't mind people arguing with me far from it we've all got different opinions.  It's when people say rude things, swear at me etc I just won't have anything to do with them.  I literally have a notepad right in front of me now with 6 names on that i won't 'talk' to. If they ask me something or post something on a thread I'm on I just ignore them.  I'll start next year with a clean slate and if they do it again I'll ignore them again.  If you want to join them stu just say and I'll ignore you too which is a shame.

I think it is a singing contest and should be judged as such.  I personally think it not fair that say Wagner who's surely not any good at all stays and Storm who's not great but sings decent enough goes.  A bit like Ann Widdecombe on the dancing.  She comes across so nice and we've all taken to her but she's truly awful getting 2 and 3 points from the judges.  Last week 'Goldie' went who again wasn't at all bad and she stays in it.  I don't think that's fair and wish the public would vote for the best dancer.  Same with the X Factor.  What if say Rebecca for arguements sake goes and Wagner stays.  Fair?  Not in my eyes.

I literally have a notepad right in front of me now with 6 names on that i won't 'talk' to

PMSL!!!!

reminds me of rafa and his "fax"!!!!

pmsl

Lou - can you add my name to the list please.  Thanks.

Mikeey

Ok fine

All the best

Lou - sorry, wasn't ignoring you just got rather busy yesterday.

You should note that I haven't sworn at you, or called you anything nasty, so not sure why you were intimating that, think you'll find I'm always civil with you and most on here (unless heavily provoked of course )

On the second point though - come on, since when were we supposed to be debating what is 'fair' on here - surely this is a betting forum and that's what we focus on. Plus, you yourself have argued that the betting should be based on talent/performance (e.g wagner and storm this very week). You know what I'm saying...?

stu

No I don't know what you're saying?

All I mean is for arguements sake surely Storm was at least a teeny weeny bit better than Wagner so why do people vote Wagner over the two?  I just don't get it.  Entertaining yes he is because we're all laughing at him but to stay in the competition at someone else's expense I THINK is unfair.

What I'm saying is that we're discussing the betting aren't we? (Not whether it is fair).

ok

Glad we can agree! - I would agree with you that it isn't strictly fair though! It's a commercial talent show, very unlikely to ever be completely fair in any real sense.

On the point where you said 'I don't get it' I would say - I gave my reasons earlier on here which were fortunately correct this week.

LOU MACARIS TARTAN B, Hi mate just read this thread, for what its worth, I have always enjoyed your contributions on the other forums in the past, you have always been straight, and ready to give an opinion. Good luck with your bets, It's bloody hard this year.

boxing

Thanks for the kind words. 

Two down that think I'm ok and only 98 to go!!!