Figgy's Twitter Stats.

once we knew it was a sing off mary wasn't evens though was she

why didn't they announce the sing off last night ?

i lost alot of money tonight, backing mary on the pretext it would br bottom out. so obviously i am totally fuming that cowell orchestrated a sing off to save cher. of course she was bottom. and shame on danni for falling into line.

but did dermot ever say 100 per cent that it was lowest votes only? or was it just us assuming it because of previous years etc etcv

Wasn't on for last night you donut.

I'm being thick but how did you lose Nick if you backed mary to be bottom..you mean cher?

Dizzy disagree re value. It said on itv website bottom was out no mention of sing off. On that basis cher was good value. Once sing off announced then some options re damage limitations for cher backers I guess.

Your mommy is calling you RMB

She's changed the sheets and sprayed the room with febreeze

Now feck off and stop talking **** you muppet

Dermot didn't say - it was notable by its absence last night.  Certainly raised my suspicions, although I did suspect that the sing off could well be a possibility, regardless of what Louis had said on Irish Radio.

To be honest Nick, it was a week that we shouldn't really have played the elimination market.  I got lucky backing Mary early doors on Monday morning due to having an op last week, blissfully ignorant that it was supposed to be lowest vote goes.

I had always assumed that with five contestants left it would be a sing off - but I can understand people feeling aggrieved if there were official announcements to the contrary.

sorry george, cher...

she's changed the sheets and sprayed the room with febreeze

sounds like you're talking from experience

your humour is unsurprisingly poor too

now I know what sort of people watch Miranda, prat.

You woz robbed nick...and I was lucky I guess.  Could have greened up on both but went with gut instinct for once. Time will tell.

win some lose some george, well done anyway

I was lucky too GB2, but unlike you halved my profit due to the overwhelming opinion on here about the sing-off.  Fair play, no gripes, we know the score when we bet on these markets...

Rebecca in a clear lead on twitter now.

What do you mean re twitter pm?  She was miles behind matt and 1D "for the win" an hour before kick off tonight. Not checked since.

Dizzy nobody should have to accept being lied to. Twitter is rife with fix tweets so should make national press.

Problem is controversey means more viewers means more money for cowell. £8m on last year's final phone votes alone. Seems Syco is propping up soy hence cowell's pimping of katie against all the odds.

See link below for best article I have seen on finances of x factor. Cowel has it stitched up like pokemon was e.g. films, cards, stickers, toys etc.

Means 16m votes next week so whoever wins has to get middle england vote bigstyle.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/x-factor/8097727/The-X-Factor-a-money-making-machine.html

dont worry about pmbets george - he is lay professional just trying to ramp his bet, so so boring, spends all day on here telling us how great rebecca is. must have a fair bit invested

agreed re middle england, cher cant win, can one d win if cher goes out first, which she will?

Possibly, Nick, although still unlikely in my view.

I think you're right on previous posts in that the endless ramping and double pimp slots suggested that One Direction needed all of the votes they could get to ensure a place in the final.  They could get enough Cher votes to push them up to second, but not to win in my view.

If Matt pulls it out the bag in the final then he's home and hosed.  Only he and Rebecca have the broad enough appeal that we've discussed on here to land the majority of the 16m+ votes next weekend.

hope (and think) you're right dizzy, and hope the one d vote isnt buoyed too much by a take that duet....

I think the choice of duets could have a big influence this year though...  No obvious candidates for Matt, but they need a big name.

I think it could be pretty close between the three. Plenty of support for 1D from the younger yummie mummies I think as well as from the teens. 1D have maged to do what the girl groups on here who get voted out early doors every year fail to do i.e. established individual personalities. So each teen/mum has ther favourite so connect is there even more so than JLS in my view..and they came second.

Cher going out first will benefit them as well I think.

Rebecca likely to get a lot of Mary's vote and she will have a broad vote base.

Matt still ahead for me and has a juggernaut feel as his poor performance yesterday didn't dent his support. That said it's game on now I suspect and a lot will depend on the night and who cowell pimps. Can't see it being matt somehow.

ironically pmbets may have something re twitter. Lots more support for rebecca now "for the win".

nickface just thank me next saturday and please use ur brain and make money out of rebecca

I'm very pleased that last night's fix has caused such a storm, hundreds of complaints and The Sun highlighting it. It means he's not likely now to fiddle the votes in the final to get a 1D win. I don't think there was a great chance of that anyway, and I'm not sure that's even what he wants anyway. But there was some chance (vote fiddling was how Girls Aloud was formed).

He's got the 4 he wants to sign up in the final, the finishing order isn't terribly important to him, the public might actually be allowed to decide.

Have to agree Henry, now that he has the final four I don't think the finishing order means all that much...

It's been said a number of times elsewhere, but he doesn't need One D to win to make millions.  In fact a Matt or Rebecca victory arguably gives him double bubble.

Nevertheless I do think they would like a group to win for once, especially a manufactured one as it's good for their collective egos, so it will be interesting to see if the boys are given the best slots, duets and songs next week.

Nevertheless I do think they would like a group to win for once, especially a manufactured one as it's good for their collective egos

True, but that has to be weighed against the fact that this particular group isn't very good and wouldn't make good ambassadors (except to a mime convention).

Surely it's just 'judges vote' for the top two now...?

Figgy's Twitter stats, YouGov/ICM polls on a chart.

Twitter's useful for momentum, it pointed to a lay of 1D and Rebecca for yesterday's elimination.

ID always poll a lot worse than twitter suggests (and Mary polled better, in line with the age bias).

http://www.flickr.com/photos/44621682@N06/5237651838/

i agree henry about the final henry.

i've shifted more green onto matt...as i think the mary fiasco helps him a lot.

cher in ...damages one direction a bit.
cher in ...damages rebecca as she won't get a 100% from cole.
mary out...the real singer's vote goes his way (and rebecca)
mary out...the anti fix/cowell vote leans towards him.

rebecca and matt take about 80% of some polls..i can't see how one of them won't win
and matt is far more likely to knock one out of the park in the final.

Agree with that aa, the difficult question now is - who's the better value - Matt 1.92 or Rebecca 5.3?

...seeing as they'll both be final 2.

Henry

I see what you're saying about the value on Rebecca against Matt's odds but surmising they are the final two (who knows) then would you rather back a 1.92 winner or a 'nice price' 5.3 Rebecca who finishes second?  I know we don't kow he's going to win but as aa matt is far more likely to knock one out of the park in the final. as he has about three or four times already whereas Rebecca hasn't wowed us once.  He's not a certainty of course not but I do really think he's the winner full stop.

Rebecca hasn't wowed you Lou. For others she wows most weeks.

I agree with the general consensus on here that it's a 2 horse race, Matt a worthy favourite and Rebecca in with a shout if the final goes her way.

I guess we'll have another YouGov poll this week which will probably confirm it's a 2 horse race.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to it.
It didn't cause much of a ripple last year iirc.

The momentum is mostly with Rebecca now, and to a smaller extent 1D

Matt done well in the early weeks but did he peak too soon?

Danyl got 36% of the votes in 1 week eliminated the next, so I dont think Xfactor fans are as loyal as some might imagine.

If his voice is still a little dodgy next week and he sings " first time" again, will it have the same impact? will people judge it against his first effort and not vote ?

Rebecca is by far the nicest personality in there, if people are undecided who the best singer is they will pick the phone up for her imo

Henry
I see what you're saying about the value on Rebecca against Matt's odds

I can see how my question appears rhetorical but it was a straight forward question. I don't know. I think either could win (but more likely Matt atm).

I guess we'll have another YouGov poll this week which will probably confirm it's a 2 horse race.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to it.
It didn't cause much of a ripple last year iirc.

Actually their semi-final poll only had 3% difference between Olly and Stacey. This should be different, but as you say the market's reaction will be interesting.

Danyl got 36% of the votes in 1 week eliminated the next, so I dont think Xfactor fans are as loyal as some might imagine.

Fair point but that might have been when the women voters discovered he was gay. Did you see all the spellbound women on that recent Buble  documentary, and how the audience booed when he said he was engaged? I remember the same scenes trying to drive through Wembley after a Justin Timberlake concert.

Matt might have some of that devotion.

"I've never bought this argument about the value bet.  A bet is only value if it wins."

Sorry fella, but that's nonsense.

Momentum is with Rebecca. That explains the drift from 2.5 out to 5.5 then. The backers and rampers are getting desperate.

RMB

Yes I know what you mean.  She hit about 2/1 about 4 weeks ago but has gone backwards since then.  Of the three obvious finalists she's the outsider.  That said though I'd definately rather back her than One D though specially at those odds.

I'd just rather print more money on Cardle myself, but no point increasing liabilities at this stage, certainly not going to gift money away at this price though.

I totally agree that Matt peaked too soon - but have the others shown enough to make a fight of it in the final furlong?

Rebecca had her chance but flattered to deceive and appears to be just a one paced stayer, while One Direction is the flashy juvenile - all style, no substance and will find little off the bridle.

Matt seems to be the pure thoroughbred in the competition, although my guess is that they will still try to frame the final (through song choices, duets etc.) to make it a close run thing.

Oh, almost forgot to mention Cher - she's the donkey parading on Brighton Beach!

in national hunt terms

rebecca is harchibald, looks good but flatters to deceive, doesnt go through with her finish

one direction are exotic dancer - always destined for runners up spot

cher is stan the man - 16/1 in the seller at womverhampton tonight

and matt is binocular - capable of brilliance, prone to the odd bad performance but usually gets it right when it matters

i know i'm mixing up my hurdlers and chasers there but, hey ho, in fact, what a waste of time that last five minutes was....

Rebecca as Harchibald performance wise very true, but Harchibald had a real steal and character about him, Rebecca doesn't.

I see Cardle as Zenyatta, Ferguson as Brave Inca, Cher as Fieppes Shuffle.

Hope Rebecca isn't Dancing Brave

Hope Rebecca isn't Dancing Brave

only because of Cheryl Starkey.

RMB - If Cardle's Zenyatta: ok running over mediocre Grade 2 & 3 opposition, but flattering to deceive and buckling on the big Kentucky stage.
Then for my money Rebecca HAS to be Goldikova! Best filly on the planet!

are you about Figgy????

NX

hope not!!

Rebecca will win and Ithink all the worried Matt backers know it.

To win posts while I've been looking

2954 1D
2563 Matt
1725 Rebecca

1D what you'd expect. lots of teenage girls retweeting their love for them
Matt with a clear lead over rebecca.
So Matt, Rebbeca, 1D for me

This thing seems to over estimate both 1d and Rebecca then, judging by last week?

Cheers for your work throughout, Fig

Will echo those thoughts thanks figgy.

cheers NX

That's fair to say I reckon GB.
Rebecca is doing slighly worse than last week, 1D slightly better and Matt about the same.
Taking into account how we think the actual vote went last week, it looks like Matt is home and hosed. Rebecca probably 2nd, though I wouldn't be amazed if 1D snatched 2nd and made us sweat a little longer.

though I wouldn't be amazed if 1D snatched 2nd and made us sweat a little longer

What makes you think that FLL? It seems everything has been predictable, including the twitter.

I just thought she underperformed tonight. Not helped by a poor song and poor staging.
Whereas 1D did their usual thing, not very well, but had the best song (Your Song) and bar Cher, even though it was panned on here, had the best duet.

I thought Beautiful was great for her, but importantly I thought all 3 acts performed not too differently from how they've always performed. (Matt a bit off par from ill.ess)

illness

I think Matt failed to seal the deal he was below par, but then given the chance Rebecca failed to take it, One Direction did nothing to gain new support and Cher best on the night went. So its as you were really but with 51% before tonight its difficult to see how Matt can now lose if Becca goes he will get her support if One D becca hasnt enough to get past him. So robsters 10/11 Matt makes plenty of appeal.

zoom - thumbs up on the itv site would agree with you. he has around double the other 3 who are all fairly close, with rebecca just 2nd
His 1st song also gets more thumbs up than the others, with Rebecca just snatching 2nd again.
It does look like Matt wins very easily and I agree JOT, the 10/11 looks a cracking bet, if robster would lay me more than about a score ;)

You will have to get an alias figgy, or live above a shop which ironically I do

Polls have matt p1ssing it too. Looks unstoppable now. Value could lie in the 1-2 forecast. Very close between beccy and 1D.  Value for me would be taking a chance on beccy having broader appeal.  3/1 looks generous to me.

Of course if she does "single lady" standing still who knows

I agree with FLL.  Matt looks home and hosed, but Christina did Rebecca no favours whatsoever with zero chemistry and zero generosity from the 'star'.  One Direction did well last night, all things considered and could have enough momentum to take second place now.

I thought she was very generous and they were very charming together.
She covered up Rebecca's loss of voice as best she could.
I'm a bad judge on these duets though as I was one of the few who absolutely loved the Stacey Buble one last year.

I can confirm it was terrible and comfortably the worst of the night

I can't take any music criticism from Joe Mc fans seriously

fan

I voted for some fellow north easterner in a popularity contest once [;)]

lol playing it down now

He's done better (at the singing) than Stacey, tbf

Will be interesting to see the votes this weekend when the dust settles.
Anyone think that Matt/Rebecca forecast 7/2 is too big?

Could the market be wrong again with 1D when twitter and other polls suggests that Rebecca was a clear second, but are maybe now neck and neck? Have they been that good that they've made up huge ground the past week or so? Or has Rebecca gone that far behind in the past 24 hours? She underperformed I thought, but not significantly to drop her support.

AA alluded to a big hitter on here taking chunks of 1D. I'm starting to think there may be a bit of market manipulation going on for the boys...

I think the scream factor may have prompted your average punter to go in on them alright.

Considering doing Matt to win and then the Matt/Rebecca forecast.

Any thoughts gents?

I keep backing the forecast, but have only seen 3/1 and 11/4.

I make it about an even money shot.

I doubt the result will be far from the ICM Yougov polls

A lot of shouting about 1d does not translate into votes.

Agree with all you've said. I'm on at 3/1 f/c can't find 7/2!

Sorry fig.

Dannii 5-6 winning manager at VeeeCeee

Before last night's show those were exactly the bets to have - I went in on the forecast three times at 3s and 11/4.

But I do  think that the momentum (that word again) is now firmly with One Direction rather than Rebecca and it will be a close run thing for the runner up spot.  Still can't see either of them challenging Matt though.

7/2 is a Laddies shop special I think...

Matt/Bex forecast 4-1 at the red place !

Yep dizzy has it above.
4/1 is simply ridiculous

GL all with your bets

7/2 with SadBlokes online too...

4/1 is an absolute steal for anyone who can get on at that price.

earlier was 4s online

Didn't get the 4/1. Got 7/2 online with a couple of ladcrooks a/cs. Took a spin to town and it was in to 3/1 with them. GL to all who jumped aboard [;)]

Amazed that pp took a chunky bet @ 4/5 over the counter on a Matt win.

About the only +ve thing about specials going more overground is that you can get a reasonable bet over the counter on XF if you spread it.

great bet lads, im sure figgy wouldnt be upset if becs wins also  [;)]

gl

Rebecca 1D flip flop alert

Smashing thread, fll. Always worth a look at your stats. Cheers.

well done m8 much appreciated for the whole series - now get back to work for scd[;)]

Thanks very much fll for so generously sharing this info throughout the series.

quality work thank you for your time

wd chief twit, fantastic work as always mucho appreciated

Nanu Nanu figgy.

More!!!!!!

Figgy, you're a genius as always...

Really appreciate the effort and info you put on here.

Nice Christmas bonus for everyone!

Cheers guys.
Twitter not too useful in the final with all the crazy teenage girls distorting the 1d stats, but it did show Matt as the winner in the end after a late (too late) surge from Rebecca.

well done figgy, much deserved

Huge thankyou to all the regs on here. The work with twitter/polls/'leaks' has been spot on, in a year when the hype around a lot of acts made things appear more complicated than they were.

WD and enjoy your winnings to the usual suspects :)

fll

as always... as Sir J.Saville OBE would say

" a 1000 thank yous"

yeah cheers Figgy

Thanks to you too OTHH... Your help and info much appreciated once again.

Great stuff FLL. I'd given up on twitter stats but you have nailed it most weeks this year.  It's all in the methodology I guess.

And thanks OTHH; you are like one of those characters in films/books who is all knowing and all seeing and turns up with words of wisdom just when they are most needed

OTHH

Spot on.  Nice chap too.  Thanks for all your help and news.

Cheers

Lou.

excellent stuff from othh again. cheers 

Wonder what happened to the facebook thread? Cher had 1.5m or something

Joe says, 'you never know how the voting goes'

We do, the OTHH confirms it